NBA Best Bets for Monday, May 6th

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NBA Best Bets

Record: 122-125-3 | Units: -12.6

 

Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets (-4.5, 208.5)

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The market loves to play the zig-zag and when the losing team is the reigning champion at home, it’s no surprise we saw the sharps jump on -4.5 when this number opened up. Denver is now -5.5 consensus, a line that is a half-point higher than it was for Game 1, which it lost. This is a classic example of a bettor needing to decide whether to play the situation or the number. 

There are many who would say Minnesota cannot replicate its performance from Saturday night, and there is a touch of truth to that. The Timberwolves averaged 2.0 points per possession in clutch time in Game 1 over the Nuggets. They went 4-of-5 from the floor for 10 points and were +7 in the final five minutes. Doing that once again – especially against the best clutch team in the regular season – seems very unlikely. However, there were plenty of other things Minnesota did that it could repeat once again.

The Timberwolves did a brilliant job on the glass and held the Nuggets to an offensive rebounding rate of 9.1%. Denver was the sixth-best team in the regular season in offensive rebounding (28.6%). Minnesota was 10th in defensive rebounding rate (26.1%). It is probably unlikely that the Timberwolves hold them to such an extreme low, but it is not unthinkable that they limit them on the offensive glass once again.

Minnesota shot 11-of-26 (42.3%) from beyond the arc in the win. That is not an extreme outlier performance for a team that ranked third in 3-point shooting this season (38.7%). In fact, the Timberwolves shot an abysmal 3-of-11 on uncontested 3-point attempts. One could argue that they have shot an even better percentage.

Denver is the defending champion. It is an extremely skilled team with the best player in the league. Expecting a bounceback performance is fine, but is it worth the adjustment in the line? 

These are games that I have the most trouble with. I believe lines and power ratings should be static unless an injury takes place. This adjustment would tell us that the Nuggets’ rating has somehow improved, only because they lost. Then you factor in that the Timberwolves are 5-0 ATS in this postseason with a +14.5 spread differential. They have clearly been undervalued in this postseason, and here we have the market – which has been incorrect on its assessment of Minnesota to this point – moving against it once again.

To be completely honest, I cannot clearly evaluate these situations. I tend to play against the situation and play on the number, and that strategy has led to me having a poor season. Every fiber of my being – which is invested in the Timberwolves in many ways – believes that the underdog is the play here. But, after being burned too many times I will sit this contest out and pull for my series wager on Minnesota.

UPDATE: Rudy Gobert popped up at 1:30 p.m. ET on the injury report as questionable due to personal reasons. His status explains the move toward -6 this morning.

Remaining Games

Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks (-6.5, 215.5)

The betting market clearly thought the opening line was too high here, and we have quite a few shops sitting at -5 as of this morning. The move is honestly surprising considering how much respect the market has had for the Knicks throughout this season. When the team was fully healthy it was one of the highest rated teams in the Eastern Conference, and the market supported it heavily in the series against Philadelphia. 

On the surface it seems as if the Knicks have an advantage here. The Pacers were 24th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency in the regular season, and they allowed 117.0 points per 100 possessions to the Bucks. Indiana was also 25th in defensive rebounding rate (71.5%) and New York was the best offensive rebounding team in the league (32.2%). Those are some exploitable mismatches for the Knickerbockers.

Should the number dip to 4.5 or lower that would be the buy point on New York, but the current number is probably the floor. We have not seen much buyback yet, but that should happen at some point. Especially with Tyrese Haliburton listed as questionable. Usually the market reacts to such a designation, but there seems to be zero belief he will miss this contest.

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