NBA Best Bets for Thursday, June 6th

Welcome to my daily column of NBA best bets! Here at VSiN we have a ton of NBA content daily, so make sure to keep tabs on Zach Cohen who is doing an excellent job handicapping the league on a daily basis.

NBA Best Bets

Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics (-5.5, 212)

 

This series has been set for a week and the analysis has been beaten to death, so let’s dive right in.

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The side and total for Game 1 has been beaten up already. The game total has been bet up 4.5 points from the open last week, and the side is up a full point. Frankly, a bettor jumping in now is getting almost no value.

Of the moves we have seen I agree with both, but the total jumping the way it has is what I agree with the most.

Boston is a team the likes of which Dallas has not seen on offense. 

The Celtics will play five out with a center that can shoot in either Kristaps Porzingis or Al Horford. Those two – due to their ability to shoot – will be able to pull Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford out of the paint. That should open up the floor for Boston, much like it did in the March 1st meeting when the Celtics went a combined 26-of-38 (68.4%) inside 14 feet and scored 62 points in the paint.

On the other end, Luka Doncic is an offensive force.

Doncic will hunt both Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, two players he has a strong physical advantage over. Porzingis will be his target as well, so he can eat up the drop coverage which Boston employs with him when he is defending pick-and-rolls. He will take advantage of transition opportunities, as we have him and the Mavericks do all postseason.

This figures to be a high-scoring affair, and I believe the market is right in jumping on the total the way that it has. It’s hard to buy in at the current number, so wait until tip-off to see if the number drops or wait for an in-game opportunity to buy low on the over.

Lean: OVER 216.5