NBA Best Bets for Thursday, May 2nd

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NBA Best Bets

Record: 121-121-3 | Units: -9.4 | ROI: -3.6%

 

New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers (-2.5, 202.5)

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Through five games this series could not be tighter. Despite having a 3-2 series lead the Knickerbockers have a +0.1 net rating in non-garbage time in the series. Four of the five games have entered clutch time. The 76ers have struggled in those contests, and enter this game with a -7.8 net rating in clutch time for the series.

Clutch time success can be fickle because it is inherently a small sample size, so expecting Philadelphia to struggle should this game get tight down the stretch is dangerous. Especially for a team that finished 11th in clutch time net rating during the regular season (+4.7).

Instead, I wanted to focus on one of the constants in this series: New York’s halfcourt offense.

In five games the Knicks are averaging just 92.1 points per 100 halfcourt plays. That is the fifth-worst halfcourt offensive rating among playoff teams, and it is the same halfcourt offensive rating the Pistons had in the regular season.

New York has had an extremely hard time scoring against Philadelphia’s halfcourt defense. It has generated its offense by grabbing an extremely high rate of offensive rebounds. In their three wins they have an offensive rebounding rate of 39.5%, but in losses it is just 26.9%, according to Cleaning The Glass. The Knicks are extremely reliant on generating second chance opportunities, and if those are not readily available then this team struggles to score.

Philadelphia has adjusted the way it not only attacks the glass – the 76ers grabbed 78.7% of defensive rebounds on Tuesday – but the team also leaned into putting length on Jalen Brunson. 

Nicolas Batum has been assigned as the primary defender for Brunson and has done a brilliant job. According to the NBA tracking data, with Batum as the primary defender, Brunson is just 9-of-23 (39.1%) for 19 points. He’s turned the ball over once and been blocked twice. It’s a matchup that has really wrecked New York’s offense, and we saw the ramifications of that in overtime.

With all that said, the play here is going to be Philadelphia. They have rebounded better and discovered a positive defensive matchup for their opponent’s best offensive player. Meanwhile, they have thrived in halfcourt setting themselves, and come into this game averaging 100.9 points per 100 halfcourt plays. 

New York obviously has the edge for the series with the final game at Madison Square Garden, and I believe we get one more there before this series concludes.

Best Bet: 76ers (-3)

Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers (-9.5, 215.5)

Indiana is in danger of blowing this series.

Despite Damian Lillard missing the last two games for Milwaukee this series is still going, and the Bucks have beat up the Pacers’ poor perimeter defense. Milwaukee has a +8.0 net rating over the last two games, and it has averaged 1.239 points per possession. That is without the team’s top two scorers on the floor.

What happens if both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Lillard come back? 

The news this morning from Adrian Wojnarowski was that both would attempt to return tonight, and we have seen the market react in a big way. The first number that appeared for this contest was Pacers -9 but we’re now at -5.5 as of this morning at DraftKings.

I say, who needs ‘em?

Despite holding a 3-1 series lead at one point Indiana is just +1.0 per 100 possessions in non-garbage time net rating. They have given up 118.9 points per 100 possessions on defense to the Bucks, and they have no answer for Bobby Portis.

Portis comes into this game averaging 18.8 points and 12.5 rebounds on 48.6% shooting in games that he hasn’t been ejected. By the way, in the game he got ejected, he had 4 points and 3 rebounds on 2-of-4 shooting in just 7 minutes. For the series Milwaukee is +13.1 in the possessions with him on the floor.

When the market flipped Indiana to the favorite for the series I bought in on Milwaukee. I bet them in the first two games of the series, but was scared off after the second game. I should have stuck it out. The Bucks are 3-2 ATS in the series. They are only getting outscored by a point per 100 possessions and killing this subpar defense. And that is with injuries to both Lillard and Antetokounmpo.

I’m back in. Let’s get this series back to Milwaukee for an elimination game.

Best Bet: Bucks ML (+190)

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