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NBA Best Bets

Record: 122-125-3 | Units: -12.6

 

Another day without a best bet on either game. Both games have moved quite a bit from their respective opening numbers. Suggesting a bet at these prices is buying into a mature market, and there is little value in that.

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To be quite honest, I also just do not have a read for the day-to-day handicap at this point right now. Minnesota is a team that I believe in and have followed, but for the most part my success this postseason has come via handicapping the series as a whole, not by game. More best bets for individual games will come, but for right now I’ll stick by the sidelines.

Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder (-2.5, 214)

Dallas was dealt a serious blow when it learned Maxi Kleber would be out for the foreseeable future with a shoulder injury. Kleber was not starting games, but he is vital to what the Mavericks do. In six games he only averaged 19.3 minutes, but Dallas was +6.2 per 100 possessions with him on the floor in the first round. 

Kleber gives the Mavericks lineup versatility. He can play power forward or be the center for their small-ball lineups. When he was the lone big on the floor against the Clippers, they posted a +30.4 net rating and averaged 1.506 points per possession. That versatility is now gone with him sidelined. Having two bigs on the floor against Oklahoma City while maintaining spacing on offense would have been huge, but now Dallas will have to pivot elsewhere.

The market has driven this number up a full point in the Thunder’s direction, and it is a move I agree with. Oklahoma City was being initially undervalued by the betting market when this series was set, and one could argue they still are.

The Thunder have three good to elite defenders on the floor in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Lu Dort. Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic can work to go after lesser on-ball defenders in Josh Giddey and Chet Holmgren, but Oklahoma City can also go zone and hide those two defensively. That will test a Mavericks lineup that starts three non-shooters in P.J. Washington, Derrick Jones Jr. and Daniel Gafford.

The Thunder will be my target once the game begins. Anything better than the opening line will be a price worth jumping on in-game. I believe the Mavericks are a great team, but the market has been too high on them over the last few weeks by my measure. 

Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics (-10, 209.5)

Boston should roll in both this series and this contest, but the market movement has priced me out. Just look at the last game the Celtics played. They closed as 13.5-point favorites in their series clinching win over the Heat. The Cavaliers just played a tough series with the Magic, but are they really just two points better than that Heat team?

Perhaps this move is an upgrade of Boston. It did finish the series 4-1 SU and ATS but it only covered by 3.9 points per game. That does signify this team was somewhat undervalued, but to upgrade them after the loss of their center does not sit right with me.

Similar to the Thunder, I’ll be looking to buy in on the Celtics at a cheap price once the game begins. Perhaps that opportunity never arrives – it failed as a strategy in a couple of the games against the Heat – but I’d rather take that tact than risk laying an inflated number with a team missing an integral piece on the floor.

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