NBA Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Friday, February 10th

113

Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page

 

Stay up to date on injury news with our injury report page as well.

Top NBA Resources:

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 47-51 | Units: -6.46 | ROI: -6.72%

There are no best bets as of this morning.

Detroit was going to be included here, but the number is now as high as 4.5 at some spots. Anything under -4 would be worth playing and 4.5 would be a playable number if it is confirmed the three starters for San Antonio were not playing.

NBA Games & Odds

San Antonio Spurs at Detroit Pistons (-3, 235)

San Antonio shipped off Jakob Poeltl and Josh Richardson at the trade deadline yesterday, and the trio of Tre Jones, Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan are questionable to play today with various injuries. The Spurs have lost 10 straight and have a 1-9 ATS record in those contests. It is clear the goal is to solidify their position for the 2023 NBA Draft. This is also the front end of a back-to-back for San Antonio, which is in Atlanta tomorrow. It is a gamble to play this early, but the market is moving and rightfully so, as these two teams are not equals should the Spurs be missing any of its trio of starters tonight.

*Phoenix Suns (-1.5, 230) at Indiana Pacers

Phoenix was extremely short-handed yesterday in Atlanta, but Devin Booker should be back on the floor after sitting out due to management of his groin injury. Booker improves the Suns’ offensive rating by 12.8 points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor, so the offensive performance should be much better tonight against the Pacers which rank 24th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (116.2). Having said that, this number did open up somewhat high on Phoenix given the situation of their roster after the trade. The market has flipped this to Indiana -1.5 which is proper given the advantage the Pacers have when it comes to their bench.

New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers (-5.5, 222.5)

Seeing as Joel Embiid has played in seven straight contests you would think his daily questionable designation could be ignored. However, this is the first of a back-to-back for Philadelphia, and there is certainly a chance Embiid sits in one of these games. When these two teams met in New York five days ago the 76ers closed as 4.5-point favorites, so this line is clearly shaded lower to account for an Embiid absence. There is value in laying this number if he is going to play tonight, so keep an eye out for an update and try to get on this line before it moves with the announcement of his status.

 

 

Utah Jazz at Toronto Raptors (-7.5, 232)

How much worse is Utah going to be now that the sale is done? Malik Beasley had come off the bench for a majority of this season and Jarred Vanderbilt had more of a bench role recently, but both were key members of the Jazz rotation and Mike Conley had started 42 of 43 games this season. The adjustment has clearly been made, as Utah was a 3.5-point favorite at home when these two met on Feb. 1, but was the adjustment too much or not enough? Toronto still doesn’t have OG Anunoby back, and while they have won three straight the competition is less than stellar. The market initially pushed this to -8 but we saw some quick buyback down to -7 which is the consensus number as of now. 

Charlotte Hornets at Boston Celtics (-11, 230)

Rookie center Mark Williams is going to start going forward now that Mason Plumlee is in Los Angeles, so hopefully with a larger sample size the numbers are better than what we have seen. With Williams at center Charlotte has a -7.6 net rating and its offense manages just 100.9 points per 100 possessions. Even worse, the projected starting lineup of Williams with LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward and P.J. Washington is -47.8 per 100 possessions. That is over the course of an insanely small sample size, but the point is that this could be bad for the Hornets. The market has dipped to -10 as of this morning, due largely to the questionable status of Jayson Tatum. 

Houston Rockets at Miami Heat (-11, 224)

Houston has covered four of six games, but their schedule has included two games against Sacramento, two games against Oklahoma City and Detroit. Miami is a slightly better team defensively than those three, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see this Rockets offense revert to form here. Having said that, the Heat continue to be the most overvalued team by the betting market. They are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games and have taken the title of worst ATS team in the league from Dallas, coming into today with a 37.7% cover rate. For those who prefer the Miami side here, just wait in-game to lay a cheaper number as opposed to this massive one pre-flop.