Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!
All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page.
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*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Best Bets
Record: 55-63 | Units: -10.65 | ROI: -9.26%
Portland Trail Blazers at Philadelphia 76ers (-8.5, 229.5)
Since Tyrese Maxey was reinserted into the starting lineup for Philadelphia their offense has been incredible. In those five games the 76ers have averaged 132.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time overall and they have a +9.0 net rating as a result. Having Maxey on the floor with James Harden is a double-edged sword though. In these five games Philadelphia has also allowed 123.6 points per 100 possessions, and despite such strong offensive and net rating they are 3-2 ATS due to a defense unable to consistently draw stops.
It would track that against Damian Lillard, who has averaged 37.4 points on 49.7% shooting from the floor in his last 27 games, the 76ers might have trouble defending yet again with its new starting group. Should Anfernee Simons make his return as well then this a game which will feature plenty of scoring. The market has moved up two points, but this likely closes even higher should Simons return which seems likely.
Bet: OVER 231.5
Best Bet Recap
76ers/Trail Blazers OV (231.5)
NBA Games & Odds
Atlanta Hawks (-1, 238) at Washington Wizards
This will be the third meeting in 10 days between these two clubs, and the market has been getting progressively lower on Atlanta with each contest. The two teams split the first two contests, but it was Washington that covered both. The first contest took place in Atlanta where the Hawks closed as 7-point favorites, a number which would translate to Hawks -4 on a neutral court. In the rematch, with Kristaps Porzingis back in the starting lineup for Washington, Atlanta closed as a 3-point favorite on the road which would mean they suddenly became two points better on a neutral in comparison to the first meeting. That obviously does not translate, and the Wizards covered once more. Now this number is Atlanta -1.5 which is much more in line with the original rating the market had for these two teams. Those who believed that the Hawks were overvalued in the first meeting should still see it that way tonight with Porzingis back in the fold.
Cleveland Cavaliers (-1.5, 214) at Miami Heat
Darius Garland popping up on the injury report as questionable has swung this line in favor of Miami, and the total has dipped an additional two points as well. Cleveland still outscores opponents by 3.0 points every 100 possessions without Garland on the floor, but their offensive rating takes a massive hit, going from 118.0 to 113.9 in those minutes. This number is now at -2 in favor of Miami, and will likely hit a full three should Garland be ruled out. Bettors who are getting involved will have to ask themselves whether Garland’s presence is worth that much, or if the market is overvaluing his absence and the team that is 3-12 ATS since the beginning of February.
*Brooklyn Nets at Minnesota Timberwolves (-5, 233.5)
The overnight total was extremely high for these two teams, and the market has beat this down to a 226.5 consensus as of this afternoon. Brooklyn’s offense has been wildly inconsistent since the reconstruction of this roster, and they are averaging just 110.7 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time over that span. The Nets now have to face a Timberwolves defense which is the fourth best defensive halfcourt team in the league (95.6). Obviously most of this has been beat into the side and total, but one interesting betting angle to monitor here is going to be Dorian Finney-Smith props. Finney-Smith has had next to no role on offense, and comes into this game averaging 5.6 points and 5.1 rebounds per game on 30.7% shooting from the floor. His minutes have been slowly diminishing as well, and his Unders seem to still have a hint of value in them.
Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Lakers (-1, 224)
D’Angelo Russell is set to make his return from an ankle injury tonight, but the betting market has jumped all over Toronto here. The Raptors have been bet up to -2.5 consensus this afternoon which is a surprising move considering how much better this Lakers defense has been recently. Los Angeles leads the league in non-garbage time defensive rating over the last 10 games, a sample size which matters because that is when Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Beasley made their debuts. The betting market has shown to overvalue Toronto this season, and their most recent result – a loss to the Clippers – is a great example. The Raptors were bet down to +2.5 in that contest and failed to cover every number. They are 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games as well, showing a somewhat inflated market rating.
