NBA Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Thursday, February 9th

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Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page

 

Stay up to date on injury news with our injury report page as well.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 46-51 | Units: -7.37 | ROI: -7.75%

Phoenix Suns at Atlanta Hawks (-5, 230)

The news of Phoenix acquiring Kevin Durant has caused the numbers for this game to move all over the place. Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson are expected to be part of the deal which brings Durant to Phoenix, and with Devin Booker already out with management of his groin injury that would mean the Suns are down three starters tonight. Phoenix is going to be extremely limited when it comes to depth tonight, and the market is reacting properly with this number now climbing to as high as 6.5 consensus. 

This version of the Suns should be more defensive oriented than anything else. In the possessions without Bridges, Booker and Johnson on the floor this season they are +1.8 per 100 possessions with a 103.4 defensive rating. Obviously, the offense is a major struggle without three of their top four scorers on the floor. However, while the side is moving here the total is not. That’s worth jumping on before it begins to move.

Bet: UNDER 229

Best Bet Recap

Suns/Hawks UNDER 229

NBA Games & Odds

Denver Nuggets (-6.5, 231.5) at Orlando Magic

Denver begins a quick, three-game road trip along the east coast in the Magic City. This is a very intriguing matchup, seeing as there are few teams with the size and athleticism that Orlando has which can be a bother on both ends of the floor. As we know, since the beginning of January the Magic have been much better, posting a 12-6 ATS record in 18 games. Part of that has been an improved defense, but the other part is an offense taking advantage of that athleticism and running. They are ninth in frequency of possessions starting with a transition play off live rebounds (31.8%) and 12th in offensive efficiency in those possessions (123.1) over this 18-game run. That is going to bother Denver, which comes into this game 30th in both defensive efficiency in transition off live rebounds (131.7) and overall transition defensive efficiency (132.0). The other factor here is obviously the status of Jamal Murray, who is questionable with knee inflammation. Whether or not he plays matters, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see a plucky effort from Orlando tonight. Denver bettors could wait this out and get a better number in-game here.

 

 

Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets (-3, 231.5)

This is a very hard game to get a read on from a betting standpoint, and is much better suited for in-game wagering than anything else. Brooklyn has obviously shipped off Kevin Durant, a player who had not been playing at all prior to the deadline.T.J. Warren was also part of the package, a more relevant move for this game as he had played 22 minutes against Phoenix the other night. Even then, he is not worth 1.5 points like the adjustment says he is. What this is about is Brooklyn’s status as a seller before the deadline. In the next few hours anyone and everyone could be on the move, which means this Nets roster is in flux and we have no idea who will even be on the team once the deadline passes. Until then, this is a game that needs to be scratched off the list of potential plays from any angle.

Milwaukee Bucks (-5.5, 237.5) at Los Angeles Lakers

LeBron James is listed as questionable, but he has been consistently given that designation and still plays so we can assume he is going to be on the floor. The question is, who else is available tonight? It’s unlikely that the newest additions of D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Beasley all hit the floor tonight, so Los Angeles will likely be dealing with a shortened rotation this evening. The betting market has moved slightly in favor of Milwaukee, as they look to improve on this 10-1 SU/7-4 ATS run it is currently on. Until we get some clarity on the roster status of Los Angeles it would be wise to wait to jump in.