NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 11/3

By
Jonathan Von Tobel
-
80

Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA Odds page.

 

Market Report for Thursday, November 4th

Top NBA Resources:

* Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 12-11 | Units: +0.47 | ROI: +2.16%

Denver Nuggets (-6, 229) at Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City did it once more against Orlando on Tuesday night, improving to 4-3 SU/6-1 ATS on the season. Tonight, they get Josh Giddey back in the lineup which only improves their depth and offense. The Thunder have been an incredible defensive team this season, allowing just 108.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time and a league best 1.085 points per play in transition. Their offense continues to be an issue, especially in the possessions in which Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leaves the floor (100.8 offensive rating), but they force turnovers at such a high rate that turns into a form of offense for them. With Giddey back and their opponent coming in allowing 116.7 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time there is the potential of this offense showing up with a better effort tonight. Denver also comes in with some injury concerns with its backcourt depth, as both Bones Hyland and Ish Smith are questionable with injury tonight. A thin backcourt is not a recipe for success against a Thunder team that is littered with talented on-ball defenders, led by Lu Dort who will likely take almost all his possessions lining up across from Jamal Murray.

Dating back to last season Oklahoma City is now 55-32-2 ATS (63.2%) and this season this team is even better, specifically on defense. As long as they are healthy and attempting to win games they will be a team to consistently back until there is a real adjustment in the market on their rating. I do worry that their lack of a true defensive option on Nikola Jokic will be their downfall tonight, but their backcourt should be able to win out on the defensive end and even this battle at home.

Play: Thunder (+6.5)

Best Bet Recap

Thunder (+6.5)

Best Game

Golden State Warriors (-8, 226) at Orlando Magic

It’s not surprising to see Golden State get bet up here, but recent struggles on the road and with their bench have me off the favorite in this one. The Warriors have started 0-4 SU and ATS on the road this season, and this current road trip has been quite abysmal. They first lost on consecutive nights to the Hornets and Pistons before getting outscored 30-15 in the fourth quarter on Tuesday by the Heat. On paper this team should be able to handle this game against Orlando, but their defense has been oddly inconsistent, allowing 115.0 points per 100 possessions and 24.8 made free throws per 100 possessions. Their bench has been very poor as well, but its also clear Steve Kerr is using the regular season to develop some of the young pieces they have. When Steph Curry is off the floor Golden State has a -20.5 net rating and it averages 97.8 points per 100 possessions. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green have been on the floor fewer than 25 possessions each without Curry, showing us that Kerr is substituting in bulk as opposed to staggering minutes amongst his stars. It’s just an odd start to the season for the Warriors and given the odd substitution patterns and subsequent poor defensive play I can pass on playing them once again.

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