NBA Betting Splits Strategies for the 2026-2027 season:
I’ve seen the data; I’ve seen the traffic reports; it’s clear that VSiN readers love and use the DraftKings and Circa betting splits pages on VSiN.com. With the NBA tipping off its season on Tuesday, October 20th, it’s time to generate the betting splits systems we’ll use every day in our VSiN NBA Analytics Reports. If you haven’t seen these systems before, or the daily reports for that matter, I highly encourage you to add them to your handicapping repertoire this season. They are loaded with relevant trends, betting systems, schedule-advantage scenarios, strength-rating interpretations, and more.
Of course, in one of the highlight pieces each day, we analyze the available DraftKings Betting Splits data and suggest teams to play or fade, plus total options worth your consideration, based on what bettors at DK are doing. Are these always “against the public” plays? No. In fact, as I’ll show in my latest edition of the updated DraftKings NBA Betting Splits Systems, there are spots where the majority groups do well. It’s always exciting to follow and profit from each season, so sit back and enjoy reading about the strategies we will use to benefit from the betting splits data DraftKings provides.
Some of you may be wondering about the Circa Betting Splits data that VSiN also posts. For the record, we are still logging that data, but to get a better sense of what “the betting public” is thinking, I believe a more mainstream, mega-marketing company like DraftKings is more effective. The two sources obviously have different industry reputations, with Circa seen as more of a “sharp” destination and DraftKings as more of a recreational shop.
Looking back at the DK betting splits data for the full 2025-26 NBA regular season, the sample includes 1,322 games. Overall, the side categories are almost identical to the 2024-25 season results, so we should continue to see great results for most of the systems we’ve tracked. The total numbers were much worse, indicating the public’s successes in the ’24-25 season may have been a fluke occurrence. In all, four of the six categories showed losses worse than -7% ROI. These were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 653-652 ATS (50%), -64.2 UNITS – ROI: -4.9%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 625-652 ATS (48.9%), -92.2 UNITS – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 847-458 (64.8%). -131.65 UNITS – ROI: -10.1%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 894-424 (67.8%). -104.3 UNITS – ROI: -7.9%
– Majority handle on totals: 650-643 (50.3%). -57.3 UNITS – ROI: -4.4%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 636-667 (48.8%), -97.7 UNITS – ROI: -7.5%
If you’re wondering why the results don’t add up to 1322 games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits, as well as ties, are counted as null.
Again, the team and side numbers were remarkably consistent overall when compared to the prior two seasons’ findings. Because of that, those of you who have been using our daily NBA Analytics Reports and taking advantage of the betting systems we have continued to produce have reaped the benefits.
Regarding the findings that the majority handle bettors were more successful than the majority number of bets groups in point spreads and totals. This shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise, and we’ve come to expect and rely on it, as the handle would tend to include a greater percentage of bigger money bettors who are perhaps more “sharp”, while the number of bets groups contains all of the bets that come in, which includes the smallest of recreational bettors’ input.
I personally believe that longevity is critical for bettors when using these Betting Splits effectively, as naturally bettors can have hot/cold short-term runs within seasons. However, over the long haul is where I find the most effective foundation for the systems I present. As such, when possible, I update the records of the systems I have found over the last three seasons rather than presenting new ones all the time. With that in mind, here are the updated NBA systems and records we will be beginning the 2026-27 season with. I find these to be a must-have for anyone’s handicapping arsenal.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 233-199 ATS (53.9%) over the last four seasons, good for +14.1 units of profit and a ROI of 3.3%. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 972-884 ATS (52.4%) over the last four seasons. This has produced -0.4 units and an ROI of about dead even. Also, this angle lost about 15 units last season; it has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful for keeping bettors afloat. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: This is a somewhat rare situation, but over the last four seasons, when a majority of the handle backed a home underdog in the NBA, that group produced a 165-131 ATS record (55.7%). This has netted +20.9 units and an ROI of 7.1%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 296 games was only about 6.0% of the total sample size.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 563-504 ATS record (52.7%), good for +8.6 units of profit and an ROI of 0.8%. This lot of 1067 games was only around 22.5% of the total sample size but has proven to be a good enough strategy over a long haul to keep bettors in the black, especially when compared to the overall numbers of at -5% ROI.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets, when 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 113-155 ATS (42.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -57.5 units for an ROI of -21.5%.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 552-482 ATS (56.3%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50.8% success rate, they were over 5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +21.8 units of profit and an ROI of +2.1%.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 672-587 ATS record, good for 53.4%. This is about a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +26.3 units of profit and an ROI of +2.1%. Again, not a massive return, but if your goal is more of a long-term steady investment strategy, this is a reasonable system to follow.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with supermajority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however: 67%, in fact. When this supermajority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last four seasons, they are just 201-218ATS, good for 47.9%. This is almost a 3% drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -38.8 units of loss and an ROI of -9.3%.
Here are some more specific money line angles:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1,722-762 over the last three seasons but for -305.69 units and an ROI of -12.3%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1,320-869 but for just -53.33 units and an ROI of -2.4%. This near 10% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams consistently.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last three playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 199-149 but for -69.83 units and an ROI of -20.1%. Compare this to the usual ML return of just over -7%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will again be very significant starting in April.
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last four seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 545-452, good for 54.6%, +47.8 units, and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit over 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, the majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 487-421 (53.6%), while the majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 480-437 (52.3%). Both groups have proven winners regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 220-166 (57%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been a very profitable angle in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for +9.7%.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Essentially, the opposite of #13 above is the situation when so much money is coming in on majority handle on an Over that DraftKings is forced to move a total higher. When 77% or more majority handle bettors are on Over for a game that has seen its total rise since opening, that group has gone 350-274 (56.1%) since January ’23. This recently discovered and best units of all angles have produced +48.6 units of profit for +7.8%.
The betting splits on VSiN.com are running live and will change in the days and hours before game time. If you adopt any of these strategies this season, be sure to visit VSiN.com for the latest numbers.
The data, which we get directly from DraftKings Sportsbook and Circa, is updated every 5 minutes.
Also, if you want to see the opening line and the line history, click on the visiting team’s logo. The updates are timestamped. A nice touch is that – if the game is over – you will get a summary that includes the final score, Total result, season Over/Under record for each team, and you can compare the result to what Steve Makinen’s estimated score was.
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