Best Bets on Today’s NBA Player Props Market
If you’ve been regularly checking out our NBA offering, you know that you can normally count on Jonathan Von Tobel to provide you with his best bets on the board. However, those plays are normally focused on spreads, moneylines, totals and team totals. But what about NBA player props? Well, we now have you covered with those. Keep reading to find out what we’re playing on guys like Joel Embiid, Jalen Brunson and Brandon Ingram on Monday, February 27. And rest easy knowing that you’ll be getting a column like this from Monday to Friday for the remainder of the 2022-23 NBA season!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on February 27
Here are our favorite NBA prop bets for Monday, February 27 (odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook):
Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers (-6, 217)
You’ll have to lay a little juice in order to take the Over on Embiid’s made threes total at 0.5, but this juice is worth the squeeze. According to our NBA Daily Prop Analyzer, Embiid has gone Over this number in 34 of the 47 games he’s played this season. That means that he has a success rate of 72.3% when needing to hit just one three in a game, and it’s hard to envision him not coming through here.
Miami is fifth in the NBA in defensive rating this season, so there’s no denying that this is a great defensive team. However, opponents are making 13.1 threes per game against the Heat, and that’s the second-highest mark in the league — with only the lowly Houston Rockets giving up more.
Overall, this is just a spot in which you should feel comfortable laying these odds, as you know Embiid averages 3.1 three-point attempts per game. He’s going to give himself a few shots to hit this, and we’re confident he’ll bury at least one. It also doesn’t hurt that this is the Monday slate’s featured NBA TV game, and Embiid tends to show out in these scenarios. He knows that playing well with a bigger audience is one of the only things he can do to leap Nikola Jokic in the race for the MVP award.
Bet: Embiid Over 0.5 Made Threes (-165)
Boston Celtics (-2, 223.5) at New York Knicks
This season, Brunson has gone Over the 5.5-assist mark in 32 of the 58 games he has played, yet you can still get him at plus-money odds to do so against the Celtics. The interesting thing about this matchup is that it has already produced some big-assist games for Brunson this season. In two meetings with Boston, Brunson has racked up 17 assists for New York. With that in mind, another six-assist performance doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility.
The Celtics happen to have the type of team that is more likely to deter Brunson from looking for his own shot as often as usual. Derrick White and Marcus Smart are about as good of a duo as you can have when it comes to point-of-attack defense, and Robert Williams III is an elite rim protector in this league. That means that Brunson could look to find his teammates some looks once he gets two feet in the paint — which he does with regularity.
If Brunson is a little more eager to serve as a playmaker in this game, this could be a relatively easy way to cash at great odds. Brunson had 10 dimes the last time these two clashed at Madison Square Garden.
Bet: Brunson Over 5.5 Assists (+120)
Orlando Magic at New Orleans Pelicans (-4, 227)
It’s a little surprising to see Ingram’s assist total up at 5.5 in this game. Sure, the Magic aren’t exactly a daunting opponent, but this team isn’t miserable on the defensive end. Orlando is 17th in the league in defensive rating this season, which makes this a middle-of-the-pack matchup for New Orleans. And Ingram hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire with his assist numbers as of late.
The lanky Pelicans forward does have nine games in which he has gone Over the 5.5-assist mark this season, but he has dished out three or fewer assists in each of his last four games. That timing isn’t a coincidence either, as Josh Richardson has only been with New Orleans for four games. The Pelicans acquired Richardson at the trade deadline and the 6-foot-6 guard gives New Orleans another player that is comfortable making plays with the ball in his hands.
This could also be a game in which the Pelicans lean on CJ McCollum as the team’s primary offensive creator. Ingram is going to be hounded by Franz Wagner — who happens to be an excellent wing defender — so the Pelicans might opt to turn elsewhere.
Bet: Under 5.5 Assists (-140)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +506 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
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