Welcome to my daily column of NBA best bets! Here at VSiN we have a ton of NBA content daily, so make sure to keep tabs on Zach Cohen who is doing an excellent job handicapping the league on a daily basis.
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Before we get to the best bets I did want to take a second to discuss a trend that many betting the NBA might try to get in on. The – as I have lovingly dubbed it – desperation trend.
The thought is that bettors should back a team that is down two games in the series and back at home for Game 3. Back in front of the home crowd and desperate to avoid a 3-0 series deficit, the home team puts forth a great effort in the opening frames and covers both the first quarter and first half lines.
If you look at the large sample size, you would see it is a trend worth backing. From the 2005-2023 home teams trailing 0-2 were 88-45-2 (66%) ATS in the first half! But, that large sample size ignores recent evidence that suggests oddsmakers have adjusted.
Since the 2021 postseason teams fitting those parameters are 8-13 ATS in the first quarter. They are 10-11 ATS in the first half. Most handicappers like to pair those bets together, meaning a bettor is 18-24 ATS since 2021 if they followed this trend.
It could just be a blip on the radar in what is a large sample size of success, but all you need to do is look at today’s contests – all featuring teams back at home trailing by two games – to see why this trend has gone south.
Orlando is a 2.5-point favorite to win the game tonight. It is -1.5in the first quarter and -2 in the first half. Philadelphia is a 5.5-point favorite over New York. The 76ers are -2.5 in the first quarter and -4.5 for the first half. The most egregious is Los Angeles. Despite being an underdog at some shops, the Lakers are -1.5 in the first quarter and -2.5 in the first half.
Some bettors will believe that the situation trumps the number, and that the price is worth paying. I am not one to shame anybody about how they bet. I just don’t believe personally that the minimal juice you’d be getting is worth such a squeeze.
NBA Best Bets
Record: 118-116-3 | Units: -7.10
Cleveland Cavaliers (-1, 201.5) at Orlando Magic
The betting really seems to believe the change in venue will be worth something for Orlando, but I am not as confident. The Magic closed as 5.5-point underdogs in the first two games of the series and failed to cover both games. Frankly, neither contest was close. Now they are expected to win by margin today because they are playing at the Kia Center?
Through two games Orlando has averaged 0.898 points per possession overall and 0.696 points per play against Cleveland’s halfcourt defense. The Magic have no dynamic offensive players, and they do not have an ability to spread the Cavaliers and make them pay for their massive frontcourt. Perhaps the change in venue means better shooting performances from their role players, but this is still a team that shot 35.6% from deep on the season.
The market was clearly wrong about Cleveland to start this series. The Cavaliers deserved to be bigger favorites, but the market is showing resistance in pushing this number to where it is at. There is little evidence to show that is an adjustment worth making.
Best Bet: Cavaliers ML (+110)
New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers (-1.5, 205.5)
This is a wild number swing from one venue to another. New York closed as 3.5-point favorites in Game 2 and probably should have lost the game outright. Result aside, the 76ers covered and proved that the market had gone too far in the Knicks’ direction. Philadelphia was the play for me in that game, and despite the market swing it will be here too.
One of the things that cannot be ignored in this series is how well the 76ers have defended the Knicks’ first-shot offense. New York averaged just 86.7 points per 100 plays against Philadelphia’s set defense in the first two games. It has an effective field goal percentage of 47.5%, the third-worst among playoff teams. The Knicks have been able to generate offense with their rebounding (41.4% offensive rebounding rate), something that should not continue at that extreme rate.
Philadelphia has also done extremely well in guarding Jalen Brunson. In the first two games Brunson has averaged 23.0 points on 29.1% shooting from the floor. He went just 2-of-12 from deep. The 76ers have big guards to throw at Brunson, and it is not out of this world to believe his struggles continue tonight.
Betting this now might be dangerous, only due to the market’s love for the Knicks. But, I believe Philadelphia to be the side here. The 76ers have plenty to point to from those first two games that they can build on now that they are back home. I expect them to win this game by margin and cut the series lead for the Knicks in half.
Best Bet: 76ers (-5.5)
Remaining Games
Denver Nuggets (-1, 217.5) at Los Angeles Lakers
Situation be damned, it is really hard to not jump on Denver in the first half of this contest. As previously mentioned, the market is skewed because of the popular trend of home teams in Game 3 that are down two games in the series. In no universe should Los Angeles be laying 2.5 points in the first half if it is only -1 for the game. There is no question where the value is here. Having said that, the Nuggets have trailed at halftime of both games back at home. Can we trust Denver to come out firing on all cylinders?
