We’re nearing the end of the 2024-25 NBA season. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Friday, March 14th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 14th
NBA Best Bets Today – March 14th
Cleveland Cavaliers at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 pm ET
Donovan Mitchell is out for the Cavaliers tonight, so I understand why people might be hesitant to back Cleveland. That’s especially true with Jaren Jackson Jr. potentially coming back for Memphis. However, since the All-Star break, the Grizzlies are just 20th in the NBA in defensive rating. This was once one of the best defensive teams in basketball, but the team has fallen off a cliff on that end of the floor. Sure, Jackson Jr. should help; he’s a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate. However, things were starting to look disjointed even with Jackson Jr. healthy. So, I’m a little skeptical about this team finding a way to defend Cleveland. Even with All-Stars out of the lineup, we have seen the Cavaliers light teams up. Kenny Atkinson’s offensive system is a plug-and-play operation, and Ty Jerome is fully capable of going crazy when Mitchell or Darius Garland are out.
Cleveland has also been unbothered on the road this year, going 25-6 straight-up in 31 away games. On top of that, the Cavaliers are 29-2 SU when facing teams that shoot at least 46.0% from the floor this season. This is the best offensive team in basketball, so teams that try to out-execute Cleveland are generally bringing knives to gun fights.
Bet: Cavaliers ML (-130)
Toronto Raptors at Utah Jazz – 9:30 pm ET
I’m not going to get crazy handicapping a Raptors-Jazz game. When looking at betting handle, you’re going to be able to single out people that have something on this game like Jackie Moon did with Jason Sudeikis eating home-made nachos in the crowd in Semi-Pro. However, it’s hard not to like Utah in this one. Lauri Markkanen is playing for the Jazz tonight, and the injury report also looks good outside of him. Meanwhile, the Raptors will be without Gradey Dick, Jakob Poeltl, Jonathan Mogbo and Ja’Kobe Walter tonight. Also, Scottie Barnes, who has been struggling mightily lately, is listed as questionable.
This just feels like a situation in which the Raptors could be a little fatigued. They’re also just 14-50 SU as road underdogs under Darko Rajokovic. Meanwhile, under Will Hardy, the Jazz are 24-17 SU as home favorites. They’re also 16-12 SU versus teams with winning percentages between 25% and 40%. Utah is a bad basketball team, but Hardy is a good coach and he tends to lead the Jazz to victories against teams on a similar level.
Bet: Jazz ML (-130 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – March 14th
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat – 7:00 pm ET
Andrew Wiggins is coming off a five-assist game against the Clippers. The 30-year-old wing has now had at least three assists in five of the nine games he has played with Miami, and it actually goes a bit deeper than that. Over the last nine games, Wiggins is averaging 8.3 potential assists per game, and his adjusted assists per game is 6.0. He’s doing a great job of directly setting his teammates up for shots, but they haven’t rewarded him by hitting them. Well, that should eventually change, leading to some more games with four or five assists for Wiggins. With that in mind, even against a tough opponent, I’m laddering Wiggins’ assist numbers tonight. He actually had five assists against Boston in a home game on February 10th, so this isn’t something he hasn’t done before.
This also isn’t the same Wiggins you saw in Golden State when it comes to his offensive role. His usage rate is 27.3% in nine games with the Heat. It was 22.8% in the 43 games he played for the Warriors.
Bet: Wiggins Over 2.5 Assists (+110 – 1.5 units), Over 3.5 Assists (+270 – 0.5 units) & Over 4.5 Assists (+650 – 0.25 units)
Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns – 10:00 pm ET
Devin Booker only had 19 points, four assists and three rebounds against the Rockets on Wednesday, but he had gone Over 37.5 combined points, rebounds and assists in two of his previous three games before that. Phoenix has been putting the ball in Booker’s hands more and more, and that has resulted in the Suns looking like a top-10 offense in the league. Well, Booker is going up against the 20th-ranked defense in the league tonight, so this is an attackable matchup for him. I’m expecting Booker to do some big things as both a scorer and a passer, and he should also continue to chip in some rebounds. Booker is only averaging 20.5 points, 8.5 assists and 2.0 rebounds per game in two meetings with Sacramento this season, but I’m not reading too much into that. I care more about the fact that Booker’s role within Mike Budenholzer’s offense is expanding. The Suns will also be without Grayson Allen tonight, so there will be a need for Booker to be a little more aggressive as a shooter.
Bet: Booker Over 37.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
PARLAY: Hawks Alt +10.5 vs. Clippers & Suns Alt +7.5 vs. Kings (-145 – 2 units)
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2024-25 NBA Record: 301-306-3 (-3.17 units)
