The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, November 7, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* OVER the total has converted in 7 straight meetings with MIN and CHI in Chicago
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in MIN-CHI (o/u at 227.5)

–In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 93-60 SU and 90-60-3 ATS (60%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+4 at SAS)

* UTAH is 11-14 SU BUT 19-6 ATS in its last 25 3rd Straight Road games
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+9.5 at MIL) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, MINNESOTA 

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND ML

This last system involves totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-SAS

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 134-91 SU but 99-123-3 ATS (44.6%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
11/7: FADE MILWAUKEE vs. Utah
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-9.5 vs. UTA)

* Over the total was 24-14 (63.2%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing on 2 Days Rest.
11/7: OVER the total in SAN ANTONIO-PORTLAND
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-SAS (o/u at 218)

11/7: OVER the total in CHICAGO-MINNESOTA
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-CHI (o/u at 227.5) 

* UTAH is 11-14 SU BUT 19-6 ATS in its last 25 3rd Straight Road games
11/7: UTAH at Milwaukee
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+9.5 at MIL) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five different NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 93-60 SU and 90-60-3 ATS (60%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY): PORTLAND (+4 at SAS)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 180-33 SU but just 95-115-3 ATS (45.2%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches (FADE): MILWAUKEE (*if they become double-digit favorites vs. Utah, -9.5 currently) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY (next few tomorrow)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.9% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (162-182 ATS, 47.1%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (224-215 ATS, 51%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE): MILWAUKEE (-9.5 vs. UTA)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
PORTLAND +4 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -9.5 (+2.7)
2. MINNESOTA -8.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
PORTLAND +4 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). MILWAUKEE -9.5 (+0.5)
MINNESOTA -8.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTA-MIL UNDER 229.5 (-7.0)
2. POR-SAS UNDER 218 (-1.2)
3. MIN-CHI UNDER 227.5 (-0.3) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
PORTLAND +4 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -9.5 (+6.8)
2. MINNESOTA -8.5 (+1.8) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
UTA-MIL OVER 229.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. POR-SAS UNDER 218 (-2.7)
2. MIN-CHI UNDER 227.5 (-1.9) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(525) UTAH at (526) MILWAUKEE
* Favorites are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between UTA and MIL
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS 

(527) MINNESOTA at (528) CHICAGO
* Over the total has converted in seven straight meetings with MIN and CHI in Chicago
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

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