The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, March 18, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 51-41-1 (55.4%). Here are today’s results:

— GOLDEN STATE (+3 vs. MIL)
Three DK Betting Splits systems, two Makinen ratings projections and the recent h2h trend all favor GSW, plus the scheduling trend fades MIL

— ATL-CHA UNDER 236.5
DK Betting Split system #12, both Makinen ratings Over/Under projections and the recent h2h trend all favor Under

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the Hawks-Hornets divisional rivalry at Charlotte
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 236.5)

* NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3-point field-goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 280-299 SU and 255-316-8 ATS (44.7%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (+3 vs. CLE) over the last four seasons.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–   Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–   Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–   Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–   Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four -point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly two-thirds of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, CLEVELAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog  in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). Most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare games.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, CLEVELAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super-majority handles doing well on non-conference & non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – BOSTON ML, GOLDEN STATE ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest and most frequent angles I have uncovered is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-CHA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-BOS

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* MILWAUKEE is on a 51-46 SU but 38-56-3 ATS skid in the 97 games when playing on standard One Day Rest
3/18: FADE MILWAUKEE at Golden StateTrend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-3 at GSW)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 105-88 (54.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 208-167 (55.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 266-209 (56%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-BOS (o/u at 212.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 273-142 SU but just 177-225-13 ATS (44%) in the next game when favored again.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-13.5 vs. BKN)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next game for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 290-226 SU but 228-273-15 ATS (45.5%) over the last six seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 40-67-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (+3 vs. CLE)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3-point field-goal attempts in a game have responded the next time out by going just 280-299 SU and 255-316-8 ATS (44.7%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (+3 vs. CLE)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3-point field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 318-292 SU but 274-317-17 ATS (46.4%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-13.5 vs. BKN)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1 (tie). CHARLOTTE +6.5 (+1.7)
GOLDEN STATE +3 (+1.7)
3. LA CLIPPERS +3 (+1.3)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: BOSTON -13.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1 (tie). CHARLOTTE +6.5 (+1.5)
BROOKLYN +13.5 (+1.5)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -3 (+0.3)
2. CLEVELAND -3 (+0.1)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: BKN-BOS OVER 212.5 (+6.4)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-CHA UNDER 236.5 (-5.8)
2. CLE-LAC UNDER 231.5 (-0.7)
3. MIL-GSW UNDER 227.5 (-0.6)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE +3 (+1.7)
2. CHARLOTTE +6.5 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -13.5 (+4.5)
2. CLEVELAND -3 (+1.0)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: BOS-BKN OVER 212.5 (+5.9)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-CHA UNDER 236.5 (-4.0)
2. CLE-LAC UNDER 231.5 (-2.0)
3. MIL-GSW UNDER 227.5 (-0.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(521) ATLANTA at (522) CHARLOTTE
* UNDER the total is 8-1 in the last nine of ATL-CHA divisional rivalry at Charlotte
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(523) BROOKLYN at (524) BOSTON
* UNDER the total is 5-1 in the last six of BKN-BOS divisional series at Boston
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(525) MILWAUKEE at (526) GOLDEN STATE
* GOLDEN STATE is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the last five games hosting Milwaukee
Trend Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS

(527) CLEVELAND at (528) LA CLIPPERS
* OVER the total is 5-1 in the last six of CLE-LAC nonconference series in Los AngelesTrend Match: PLAY OVER the total

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