The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, May 1, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

Top NBA Resources:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY): DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, DALLAS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle moneyline wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an ROI of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI ML, DALLAS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an ROI of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): MIAMI ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): MIA-BOS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: MIA-BOS, DAL-LAC

Naturally being able to predict an upset in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis as well, but perhaps equally important is being able to find the heavier underdogs that wind up being more competitive than expected and push the favorites to the limit in series. Of course, vice versa can be equally profitable, finding favorites that will sweep through a first-round series easily. Take a look at some of these series trends based on won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season.

• There is actually a better chance that a #1-#8 or #2-#7 series goes longer if the better seed had a better ATS record in the latter parts of the season. In fact, in 13 of the last 17 series of these seed types that went six or seven games, the better seed had an ever or better ATS record in the last 10 games time period. Watch out for Philadelphia in this scenario, as the 76ers won their final 10 games against the Vegas number. Also, both Chicago and Miami had better last 10 ATS records than Boston and New York.

• In 12 of the last 13 #4-5 and #3-6 series that ended in upsets (worse seeded team winning), the teams had overall won-lost records within four games of one another. This is in play for all but the Minnesota-Phoenix series in the West for 2024.

• There has been a significant benchmark in the success of the lower seeded team at 10 wins less than the opponent over the last 10 playoff years. If more than 10 regular season wins separate the teams, only Miami in 2023 has won a series, and the lesser seeds are averaging just 1.26 game wins per series, with eight sweeps in 32 series. Additionally, only four other teams pushed a series to seven games. For 2024, the Celtics are qualifiers.

• Using the records from the second half of the season has also revealed quality underdogs. When the worse-seeded team had an equal or better record in the second half of the season, they won eight of last 17 series while going 53-48 outright in games. This included series wins by the Knicks and Lakers last year. There are three “underdogs” that hold this edge for 2024, Indiana, Orlando, and Dallas.

• Alternatively, when there were five games or better records in the second half of the season for the better seed, all but one of 35 won their series while going 137-42 SU. Furthermore, only one other of the 35 worse-seeded teams pushed the series to seven games. Of course, the lone winner in this trend was Miami in 2023. Boston will hold this edge over any of its first-round opponents.

• There is an interesting benchmark for worse-seeded teams at 48 wins (59%+) or more. Those that reach that regular season mark have gone 6-19 in series and 63-84 (42.9%) in individual games over the last 10 postseasons. Those that have 58% or less (47-35 in full season) are just 9-46 in series and 91-198 (31.5%) in individual games. All the potential first-round “underdogs” that won 48 games are in the West: Dallas.

• Of the last 13 better seed sweeps, all 13 had better records in the second half of the season, only one had a worse record in the last 20 games, and only three won fewer of their last 10 games. According to this, Boston and Oklahoma City have the best chance at first-round sweeps, as they are the only teams with advantages over their opponents in all three varying time ranges.

Big favorites have held a significant edge. Since the start of the 2014 playoffs, NBA first-round favorites of 8.5 points or more are 88-14 SU and 61-41 ATS (59.8%).
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-14 vs MIA)

The last two NBA first-round playoffs saw 49 Unders and 37 Overs (57%). So far in 2024, there have been 20 Unders, 15 Overs – (57.1%).
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING UNDER

With the meteoric rise in scoring over the last few years in the NBA, it is interesting to note that in the lowest totaled first-round playoff games over the last five postseasons, 218 or less, the Under the total is 69-44-3 (61.1%). In all games with totals above 218, the Over the total is 71-59-2 (54.6%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in: MIA-BOS, DAL-LAC

Last Game Trends
Home teams are a better wager when coming off a win in a series – Home teams coming off a win in the prior game of a series are 76-45 SU and 63-58 ATS (52.1%) since 2016. Those coming off a loss are 83-71 SU and 69-82-3 ATS (45.7%) in that same span. Naturally, the latter is often the lower-seeded team in a series, but this is a good indication of how momentum aids a team.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-14 vs MIA), PLAY LA CLIPPERS (+3 vs. DAL)

Blowout losses carry over. There is a bit of misconception when it comes to teams “bouncing back” from rough first-round losses. In fact, teams that lost their previous game by 10 points or more are just 80-142 SU and 94-125-3 ATS (42.9%) in the next contest since 2013. However, they were 11-7 ATS last year, including 8-1 ATS at home. This year so far they are 8-12 SU and 9-11 ATS.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (+14 at BOS)

First-Round Trends by Game Number
Game Fives have belonged to the home teams over the last four non-neutral court playoff seasons, as they are 34-10 SU (just 21-23 ATS – 47.7%) since 2017.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON ML, PLAY LA CLIPPERS ML

Non-neutral Game Fives have been defensive focused of late, going 24-14 Under the total (63.2%) since 2018, with road teams putting up just 104.1 PPG.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in BOTH GAMES

Trend by Seed Number
#1 seeds close out series…period. They are 20-3 SU and 16-7 ATS (69.6%) in their last 23 first-round playoff closeout tries. This is a big reason they haven’t been pushed to a Game Seven since 2014.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-14 vs MIA)

First-Round Game Scoring Trends
Success in first-round games comes with topping the 117-point mark, as teams that have scored 118 points or more are on a 109-28 SU and 108-29 ATS (78.8%) run over the last 5+ postseasons.

In terms of points allowed, 99 points is the key benchmark. Teams that have allowed 98 points or fewer in the last 5+ first-round playoff seasons are 90-16 SU and 87-17-2 ATS (83.7%).

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of the Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what has been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these angles will apply the rest of the way.

DALLAS boasts an impressive 17-3 SU and 16-4 ATS (80%) record this season as a single-digit road favorite.
5/1 at LA Clippers
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-3 at LAC)

The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

LA CLIPPERS is 15-9 SU but 6-18 ATS at home in the 2 Days Rest scenario over the last two seasons
5/1 vs Dallas
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (+3 vs DAL)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 83-69 (54.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 158-131 (54.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 220-152 (59.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in MIA-BOS (o/u at 200)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the L4+ seasons unless noted.

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 231-246 SU and 212-260-5 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (+3 vs DAL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: LA CLIPPERS +3 (+3.7)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOSTON -14 (+0.6)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: LA CLIPPERS +3 (+5.1)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOSTON -14 (+1.9)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-LAC OVER 208.5 (+1.7), 2. MIA-BOS OVER 200 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: LA CLIPPERS +3 (+2.8)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOSTON -14 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-LAC OVER 208.5 (+2.5), 2. MIA-BOS OVER 200 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) MIAMI at (502) BOSTON
* MIAMI is 6-2 ATS in the last eight games at Boston
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS

(505) DALLAS at (506) LA CLIPPERS
* Under the total is 10-2 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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