The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA Playoff Second Round Game Fours. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for Game 4’s, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

– Oddsmakers pave the road for Game Four profits.
An interesting trend that has developed over the last eight playoff seasons finds that second round Game Four favorites are on a surge of 26-9 SU and 22-12-1 ATS (64.7%).
System Matches: PLAY ALL FAVORITES (IND, MIN, BOS, DAL)

Top NBA Resources:

– Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 132-45 SU and 109-66-2 ATS (62.3%) in their last 177 tries.
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs DEN)

– (515) OKLAHOMA CITY at (516) DALLAS
* Over the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the roadside of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, DENVER, OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 27-19 ATS record (58.7%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 46 games was only 3.6% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their moneyline plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, DENVER, CLEVELAND, OKLAHOMA CITY

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following system shows some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): NEW YORK

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an ROI of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% ROI Both of these ROIs are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): DENVER ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle moneyline wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an ROI of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML, DENVER ML, CLEVELAND ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and a ROI of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML, DENVER ML, CLEVELAND ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): NYK-IND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: NYK-IND, DEN-MIN, BOS-CLE, OKC-DAL

• There have been 14 second round series over the last 10 playoff seasons to last five games or less, only two in upset fashion. In all but one of those 20 series, the winning team won at least 50 games in the regular season.

• There have been 19 second round series over the last 10 playoff seasons that involved teams squaring off whose regular season win totals were within five of one another. Those series have been almost toss-ups, with the higher seeded team winning 10 times (64 individual wins) and the lower seed winning eight times (53 individual wins).

•  In the 21 other series where the regular season won-lost total in +6 or higher for the better seed, that team is 16-5 in series wins and 73-43 in individual wins. The most recent of those five series losses occurred in 2022, when Dallas edged Phoenix 4-3.

•  Excluding the results of the 2020 season which had a shortened regular season and postseason played entirely in Orlando, 53 regular season wins is a good benchmark for projecting success in the second round. Teams that won 52 games or fewer, when taking on teams that won 53 games or more, are just 2-16 in series and 33-67 in individual games since 2014. Again, Phoenix in 2022 was the last team to lose in this situation.

• There is advantage to playing shorter series in the first round. Teams that played two or more fewer games in the first round boast a second round series record of 8-5 since 2014, with an individual game mark of 38-26.

•  It hasn’t been real detriment to see a first round series be pushed to seven games for teams in the second round. These teams are 8-8 in series and 47-46 in individual games since 2014. Heading into this season, only two first round series over the previous three playoff seasons went the distance.

•  Don’t overestimate situations when the worse seeded team had a better second half regular season record, since they have only one once in their last eight series, going 16-31 in individual games.

•  Similarly, worse seeded teams that had better ATS records in the regular season haven’t fared that well either. They are just 3-13 in series record and 31-56 in individual games.

Scoring Trends

– It was in the 2016-17 season in which scoring really started to balloon in the NBA. Since then, it’s been proven to be that 112 points is the benchmark for second round success. Teams that score 112 points or more in a second round playoff game have gone 109-26 SU and 104-30-1 ATS (77.6%).

– Lack of success accompanies failing to reach the 103-point mark – Second round playoff teams scoring 102 points or less own a record of just 21-107 SU and 26-101-1 ATS (20.5%) over the last seven seasons.

Trends by Line/Total Range

– Big road favorites win and cover. Since the start of the 2013 playoffs, NBA second round road favorites of five points or more are 9-0 SU and 7-1-1 ATS (87.5%).
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-8 at CLE)

Last Game Trends

– Teams have struggled in the second round when coming off of same series losses and playing on the road, having gone just 10-23 SU and 11-22 ATS (33.3%) in the follow-up contests in their last 33 playoff tries.
System Matches: FADE NEW YORK (+5.5 at IND), FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (+2 at DAL)

– Teams coming off a loss in a second round series game and playing at home have bounced back well, 19-10 ATS (65.5%) since 2021.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs DEN), PLAY CLEVELAND (+8 vs BOS)

– Blowout losses have been demoralizing for teams lately in the second round, as those losing by 15 points or more in one game follow that up with just an 12-13 SU and 11-14 ATS (44%) record over the last three postseasons.
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs DEN)

– There is a very interesting totals trend that has developed lately in competitive contests, as when games have been decided by 10 points or fewer, the follow up second round same series game is 31-16-1 Under (66%) the total in the last 48.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in NYK-IND (o/u at 219), PLAY UNDER in OKC-DAL (o/u at 214.5)

Trends by Game Number

– Oddsmakers pave the road for Game Four profits. An interesting trend that has developed over the L8 playoff seasons finds that second round game 4 favorites are on a surge of 26-9 SU & 22-12-1 ATS (64.7%).
System Matches: PLAY ALL FAVORITES (IND, MIN, BOS, DAL)

– Game Three winners have most often become Game Four winners as well, as they are 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS (72.2%) in their last 18 tries.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, DENVER, BOSTON, DALLAS

– Teams up in the series are just 14-19 SU and 11-21-1 ATS (34.4%) in their last 33 Game Four tries.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK, MINNESOTA, BOSTON, DALLAS

Trends by Seed Number

– After a long run of dominance prior, #1 seeds are just 47-36 SU and 41-41-1 ATS (50%) in their last 83 second round playoff games.

– #1 seeds have capitalized on momentum well going 19-13 SU and ATS (59.4%) when coming off a same series win.
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-8 at CLE)

– #1 seeds are on a 5-15 SU and 7-13 ATS (30%) skid as underdogs in the second round.
System Match: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (+2 at DAL)

– #2 seeds have been very competitive in the underdog role in the second round, going 22-17 SU and 28-11 ATS (71.8%) in that role since 2015.
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (+5.5 at IND), PLAY DENVER (+2.5 at MIN)

– #3 seeds have meant Unders in second round games of late, 33-17-1 (66%) in the last 51.
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in DEN-MIN (o/u at 204.5)

– Teams seeded #4 tend to be overmatched in the underdog role, owning a record of 11-33 SU and 14-29-1 ATS (32.6%) as such since 2015.
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+8 vs BOS)

– Losses compound for #4 seeds in the second round, as they are just 11-22 SU and ATS (33.3%) coming back after a same series defeat since 2014.
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+8 vs BOS)

– Upset winners of the first round don’t win much in second round, with teams seeded #5 or worse going 17-33 SU and 24-26 ATS (48%) in their second round games over the last nine seasons when not matched up against another upset winner.
System Matches: FADE INDIANA (-5.5 vs NYK), FADE DALLAS (-2 vs OKC)

– Winning doesn’t provide a whole lot of momentum for the second round teams “not supposed to be there,” as they are just 9-20 SU and 11-18 ATS (37.9%) when coming off a same series victory since 2013.
System Matches: FADE INDIANA (-5.5 vs NYK), FADE DALLAS (-2 vs OKC)

The following are some of the top team specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* INDIANA is 62-39 Over the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
5/12 vs New York
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 219)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Favorites flush low scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 132-45 SU and 109-66-2 ATS (62.3%) in their last 177 tries.
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs DEN)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 91-52 SU and 86-55-2 ATS (61%) in that follow-up try over the last 3-1/2 seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs DEN)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 231-247 SU and 212-261-5 ATS (44.8%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE NEW YORK (+5.5 at IND)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS FOR GAME 4’s

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +8 (+3.1), 2. NEW YORK +5.5 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -2.5 (+1.5), 2. DALLAS -2 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +8 (+3.5), 2. NEW YORK +5.5 (+2.1)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -2.5 (+2.3), 2. DALLAS -2 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-CLE OVER 207.5 (+2.8), 2. NYK-IND OVER 219 (+0.7), 3. OKC-DAL OVER 214.5 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +8 (+3.2), 2. NEW YORK +5.5 (+1.8)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -2.5 (+1.2), 2. DALLAS -2 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-MIN OVER 204.5 (+2.6), 2. BOS-CLE OVER 207.5 (+2.0), 3. OKC-DAL OVER 214.5 (+1.7)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

Sunday, May 12, 2024

(511) DENVER at (512) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA has won six of the last eight ATS in the series at Minnesota
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

(509) NEW YORK at (510) INDIANA
* Favorites have covered 12 of last 15 ATS in the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

Monday, May 13, 2024
(515) OKLAHOMA CITY at (516) DALLAS
* Over the total is 9-2 in last 11 of the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(513) BOSTON at (514) CLEVELAND
* Underdogs are 7-2-1 ATS in last 10 of head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS