The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA Conference Finals Game Twos. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for Game Twos, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

#3/4 seeds have bounced back well from losses – Conference final #3 and #4 seeds have responded well after losing a same-series game, going 15-12 SU and 18-8-1 ATS (69.2%) in their last 27 tries.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-5.5 vs DAL)

Top NBA Resources:

Teams seeded #5 or worse have been phenomenal underdogs in the conference final – Teams seeded #5 or lower have gone 11-11 SU and 16-6 ATS (72.7%) in their last 22 tries in the underdog role.
System Matches: PLAY INDIANA (+9 at BOS), PLAY DALLAS (+5.5 at MIN)

Zig-zag theory is alive and well in conference finals – Over the last three conference final seasons, teams coming off outright losses in conference final games are 22-16 SU & 25-12-1 ATS (67.6%) in their 38 follow-up games. Those that lost by single digits are 18-8 Under (69.2%) the total in their next game.
System Matches: PLAY INDIANA (+9 at BOS), PLAY MINNESOTA (-5.5 vs DAL), also PLAY UNDER in BOTH GAMES

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 126-42 SU and 105-63 ATS (62.5%) run.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-5.5 vs DAL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, MINNESOTA

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle money line wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an ROI of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA ML, MINNESOTA ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an ROI of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): INDIANA ML

This last system involves totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): DAL-MIN

Who will reach the title series? Indiana or Boston? Minnesota or Dallas? Let’s take a look at some past trends for betting series.

Series Trends

Being able to predict an upset in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis. Accurately projecting which underdogs will push a series deep, or alternatively, which favorites will end a series quickly, can really boost your wagering profit in this round and all others. Take a look at some of these series trends based upon won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season and in the playoffs to date.

• There have been 20 conference finals series over the last 10 playoff seasons, and the better seeds own just an 11-9 edge in series wins and a 63-50 game wins edge during that span. There have been four sweeps, three by the better seed, including Denver over the Lakers last year.

• There have been ten conference finals series over the last 10 playoff seasons that involved teams squaring off whose regular season win totals were within four of one another. Those series have been almost toss-ups, with the better-seeded team winning five times (30 individual wins) and the lesser seed winning five times (27 individual wins).

• The last three times that there have been differences of double-digit margins between teams’ regular season wins, the better seed won all three series and was 12-3 in individual games. This is the case for the Boston-Indiana series.

• Winning 70%+ of regular season games is a key benchmark of conference championship series success for better seeds. Those that did and weren’t facing a 70%+ win team are 8-1 in series and 32-16 in individual games. Boston was 78% this season. Those that won fewer than 70% of their regular season games are just 3-6 in their last seven conference final series (26-27 in games). This will apply to Minnesota.

• There has been a massive advantage of late in analyzing the earlier playoff round performances of the teams in a conference finals series. Teams that played fewer games in the first two rounds, or essentially lost fewer games in those series, are on a 17-1 conference final series run! Four of the last 22 series matched teams that played equal games. The only team to lose after playing fewer games was Milwaukee in 2019. Considering this information for 2024, both Boston and Minnesota will be owning edges.

• Teams that faced a Game Seven matchup in either of their first two round series have won just two of their last 13 conference finals series when not matched up against an opponent that faced a Game Seven itself. This includes Boston’s upset loss a year ago to Miami. For 2024, both Indiana and Minnesota played in Game Sevens this past Sunday. Neither Boston nor Dallas has been tested to that degree yet this playoff season.

Scoring Trends

94 points is a low benchmark for conference finals success – Teams that score 94 points or less in conference final playoff games have struggled badly, going just 10-51 SU and 11-50 ATS (18%) since 2013.

Success accompanies reaching the 116-point mark – Conference final playoff teams scoring 116 points or more boast a record of 49-5 SU and 48-4-2 ATS (92.3%) over the last 11 seasons. Two of those ATS losses came last year, however.

Trends by Line Range

Big favorites are slowing – From 2013-2018 in the NBA playoffs, conference final favorites of five points or more were 35-6 SU and 28-13 ATS. Since then, they are just 16-12 SU and 10-17-1 ATS (37%), including 1-6 ATS a year ago.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-9 vs IND), FADE MINNESOTA (-5.5 vs DAL)

High totals have meant Unders – Of the 44 games in the last nine conference finals seasons with totals of 216.5 or higher, 28 of them have gone Under the total (63.6%). There’s a chance the entire East Finals of 2024 will land in this range.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in IND-BOS (o/u at 224.5)

Totals under 209 have leaned Under The lowest totals over the last decade in the conference finals, those below 209, are on a 20-18-1 Under (52.6%) surge, including 4-2 in the last six.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in DAL-MIN (o/u at 207.5)

Last Game Trends

The zig-zag theory is alive and well in conference finals. Over the last three conference finals seasons, teams coming off outright losses in conference finals games are 22-16 SU and 25-12-1 ATS (67.6%) in their 38 follow-up games. Those that lost by single digits are 18-8 Under (69.2%) the total in their next game.
System Matches: PLAY INDIANA (+9 at BOS), PLAY MINNESOTA (-5.5 vs DAL), also PLAY UNDER in BOTH GAMES

Close losses and playing on the road have been a bad scenario – Teams coming off losses of 10 points or less and playing on the road are just 3-13 SU and 6-10 ATS (37.5%) in conference final games dating back to 2014.
System Matches: FADE INDIANA (+9 at BOS)

Trends by Game Number

Home teams that won the opening game usually win Game Twos as well – The last 11 conference final Game Two home teams that won Game One are 10-1 SU and 6-5 ATS (54.5%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-9 vs IND)

Trends by Seed Number

Lay the wood with #1 seeds – Top-seeded teams have been stellar at covering big point spreads, going 25-3 SU and 17-11 ATS (60.7%) in the conference finals when favored by 6.5 points or more.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-9 vs IND)

#1 seeds thrive after close wins – Top-seeded teams are on a 10-5 SU and ATS (66.7%) conference final run when coming off a same-series single-digit win.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-9 vs. IND)

#3/4 seeds are solid in the big favorite role– Conference final #3 & #4 seeds are on an 11-5 SU and ATS (68.8%) run as favorites of 3.5 points or more.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-5.5 vs DAL)

#3/4 seeds have bounced back well from losses – Conference final #3 & #4 seeds have responded well after losing a same-series game, going 15-12 SU & 18-8-1 ATS (69.2%) in their last 27 tries.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-5.5 vs DAL)

Teams seeded #5 or worse have been phenomenal underdogs in the conference finals – Teams seeded #5 or lower have gone 11-11 SU and 16-6 ATS (72.7%) in their last 22 tries in the underdog role.
System Matches: PLAY INDIANA (+9 at BOS), PLAY DALLAS (+5.5 at MIN)

#5 and lower-seeded teams struggle to put back-to-back wins togetherTeams seeded #3 seeds or worse and coming off a win in a conference final series game are just 8-18 SU and 8-17-1 ATS (32%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches: FADE DALLAS (+5.5 at MIN)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

BOSTON is 12-3 SU but 4-10-1 ATS (30.8%) at home this season versus teams with current Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 100 or higher.
5/23 vs Indiana
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-9 vs IND)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 126-42 SU and 105-63 ATS (62.5%) run.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-5.5 vs DAL)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK SYSTEMS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +5.5 (+1.5), 2. INDIANA +9 (+1.0)

Game Two UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DALLAS +5.5 (+1.4)

Game Two UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOSTON -9 (+1.8)

Game Two TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: IND-BOS OVER 224.5 (+1.5)

Game Two TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DAL-MIN UNDER 207.5 (-0.4)

Game Two Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +9 (+2.3), 2. DALLAS +5.5 (+1.6)

Game Two TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: IND-BOS OVER 224.5 (+2.1)

Game Two TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DAL-MIN UNDER 207.5 (-0.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

Thursday, May 23, 2024

(553) INDIANA at (554) BOSTON
* INDIANA has covered five of the last seven ATS in the head-to-head series at Boston
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

Friday, May 24, 2024

(555) DALLAS at (556) MINNESOTA
* Under the total is 7-3 in the last 10 of the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total