Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on 10/30. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s NBA games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Road teams are on an absurd 12-4 SU and 14-2 ATS run in the Knicks-76ers divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-1.5 at PHI)
* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario were 36-15 SU and 34-17 ATS hosting teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game last season
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+8.5 vs DET)
* NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 193-132 SU and 181-137-7 ATS (56.9%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-3.5 at GSW)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing in the One Day Rest game scenario are 17-33 SU and 15-34 ATS vs. teams playing a 3+ Days Rest game over the last four seasons
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-4.5 at PHX)
* NBA teams playing at home in the One Day Rest game scenario are 90-50 Under the total hosting teams in a 4th in 10+ Days game over the last four seasons
* DENVER is 19-4 Over the total (85.7%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games, since the start of last season
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in DEN-PHX (o/u at 231.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario were 36-15 SU and 34-17 ATS hosting teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game last season
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+8.5 vs DET)
* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario are 33-18 Over the total hosting teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game over the last season
* DETROIT is 27-13 Over the total playing in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario since January 2025
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-BKN (o/u at 222.5)
* GOLDEN STATE is 131-127 SU but 110-144 ATS playing in One Day Rest games since January 2022
* LA LAKERS are 102-63 SU and 97-67 ATS playing with One Day Rest since November 2023
Trends Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-3.5 at GSW)
* MIAMI is 77-40 Over the total playing with One Day Rest since March 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-MIA (o/u at 237.5)
* NEW YORK is 154-82 SU and 132-100 ATS playing with One Day Rest since November 2022
* NEW YORK is just 9-9 SU and 4-14 ATS (22.2%) vs. the current lowest-scoring teams in the league (scoring <114 PPG), since the start of last season
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of NEW YORK (-1.5 at PHI)
* PHILADELPHIA is on a 13-0 UNDER the total (100%) surge in Friday games since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-PHI (o/u at 227.5)
* WASHINGTON is 6-22 SU and 9-19 ATS (32.1%) vs. the lowest-scoring teams in the league this season (scoring <114 PPG), since the start of last season
* WASHINGTON is 70-175 SU and 101-138 ATS playing with One Day Rest since November 2021
Trends Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-1.5 vs CHA)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) CHARLOTTE at (502) WASHINGTON
* CHARLOTTE is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS versus Washington since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+1.5 at WSH)
(503) CHICAGO at (504) BOSTON
* Home teams are 5-0 SU and ATS in the last five of the Bulls-Celtics set
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-14.5 vs CHI)
(505) NEW YORK at (506) PHILADELPHIA
* Road teams are on an absurd 12-4 SU and 14-2 ATS run in the Knicks-76ers divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-1.5 at PHI)
(507) ORLANDO at (508) TORONTO
* Home teams are 11-4 SU and ATS in the Magic-Raptors series since the start of the 2022-23 season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-5.5 vs ORL)
(509) DETROIT at (510) BROOKLYN
* DETROIT is 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings with Brooklyn
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-8.5 at BKN)
(511) INDIANA at (512) MIAMI
* Over the total is on a 10-1 surge in the Pacers-Heat series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-MIA (o/u at 237.5)
(513) LA CLIPPERS at (514) MINNESOTA
* Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the Clippers-Twolves set at Target Center
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-MIN (o/u at 223.5)
* LA CLIPPERS are 2-3 SU but 5-0 ATS in the last five of the overall series as well
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (+6.5 at MIN)
(515) HOUSTON at (516) DALLAS
* DALLAS is 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven instances hosting Houston
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+6.5 vs HOU)
(517) LA LAKERS at (518) GOLDEN STATE
* LA LAKERS are 7-2 SU and ATS in the last nine matchups with divisional foe Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-3.5 at GSW)
(519) DENVER at (520) PHOENIX
* Over the total has converted in four straight meetings between Denver and Phoenix
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-PHX (o/u at 231.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last six NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 146-128 (53.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 279-233 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 370-301 (55.1%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – CHI-BOS (spread BOS -14.5, o/u at 234.5)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #2:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, home underdogs of 5 points or less have gone 16-43 SU and 19-38-2 ATS (33.3%) since late-April 2021.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 vs NYK)
Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 61-16 SU and 47-30 ATS (61%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-6.5 at DAL)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the teams’ follow-up game results. These systems are from the last six seasons unless noted.
Favorites flush low scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 170-62 SU and 136-94-2 ATS (59.1%) in their last 232 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR CHARLOTTE at WSH (+1.5 CURRENTLY)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 319-175 SU but just 205-276-13 ATS (42.6%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-14.5 vs CHI)
Early season large wins lead to Unders
NBA teams who won their previous game by 25+ points have gone Under the total at a 32-15-1 (68.1%) rate in games 2-5 of the season in the last 48 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-TOR (o/u at 226.5)
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 53-82-1 ATS (39.3%) in their last 136 divisional contests.
System Match (FADE ATS): DALLAS (+6.5 vs HOU)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 425-366 (53.7%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-BOS (o/u at 234.5), IND-MIA (o/u at 237.5), LAL-GSW (o/u at 234.5)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 214-224 SU and 206-222-10 ATS (48.1%) in that next contest over the last eight seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-1.5 at PHI)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest
as well, going 193-132 SU and 181-137-7 ATS (56.9%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-3.5 at GSW)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 108-78 SU and 110-75-1 ATS (59.5%) in their last 186 tries.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE (+1.5 at WSH), LA LAKERS (-3.5 at GSW)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 111-25 SU and 75-58-3 ATS (56.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR HOUSTON at DAL (-6.5 CURRENTLY)
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 126-158 SU but 157-125-3 ATS (55.7%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+8.5 vs DET)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home teams playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 237-206 ATS (53.5%) over the last four seasons, good for +10.4 units of profit and a ROI of 2.3%. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 977-895 ATS (52.2%) over the last four seasons. This has produced -7.5 units and a ROI of -0.4%. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, DETROIT, NEW YORK, HOUSTON, LA LAKERS, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 571-515 ATS record (52.6%), good for +4.5 units of profit and an ROI of 0.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, CHICAGO, NEW YORK, MIAMI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 680-601 ATS record, good for 53.1%. This is about a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +18.9 units of profit and an ROI of +1.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, DETROIT, TORONTO, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with supermajority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however: 67%, in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last four seasons, they are just 203-222 ATS, good for 47.8%. This is almost a 4% drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.1 units of loss and an ROI of -9.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, HOUSTON, LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last four seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 560-464, good for 54.7%, +49.6 units, and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-PHI, ORL-TOR, IND-MIA, DEN-PHX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit over 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 488-422 (53.6%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 480-439 (52.2%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – CHA-WSH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Essentially the opposite of #13 above is the situation when so much money is coming in on majority handle on an Over that DraftKings is forced to move a total higher. When 77% or more majority handle bettors are on Over for a game that has seen its total rise since opening, that group has gone 353-277 (56%) since January 2023. This recently discovered and best units of all angle has produced +48.3 units of profit for +7.7%.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-BOS
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +8.5 (+2.7)
2. DALLAS +6.5 (+2.1)
3. BROOKLYN +8.5 (+1.9)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -6.5 (+1.5)
2. TORONTO -5.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +6.5 (+4.3)
2. CHICAGO +14.5 (+3.7)
3. BROOKLYN +8.5 (+2.0)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -1.5 (+5.3)
2. MINNESOTA -6.5 (+1.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-BKN OVER 222.5 (+1.2)
2. CHA-WSH OVER 219.5 (+0.5)
3. LAL-GSW OVER 234.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-PHI UNDER 227.5 (-3.2)
2. HOU-DAL UNDER 224.5 (-1.4)
3. DEN-PHX UNDER 231.5 (-1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +6.5 (+2.1)
2. INDIANA +8.5 (+1.9)
3. GOLDEN STATE +3.5 (+1.5)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO -5.5 (+2.2)
2. MINNESOTA -6.5 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-PHX OVER 231.5 (+4.7)
2. CHI-BOS OVER 234.5 (+2.4)
3. CHA-WSH OVER 219.5 (+2.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-PHI UNDER 227.5 (-2.7)
2. ORL-TOR UNDER 226.5 (-2.4)
3. LAC-MIN UNDER 223.5 (-1.0)
