The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on 11/14. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s NBA games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Underdogs are on an extended 16-3 ATS run in the Pistons-Heat series
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+4.5 vs DET)

* NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 180-225 SU and 177-224-4 ATS (44.1%) (sub-system: 19-48 SU and 22-43-2 ATS (33.8%) vs. opponents giving up <= 108 PPG) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+15.5 at MIN)

* Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 148-114-2 (56.5%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-NOP (o/u at 234.5)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that’s the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they handle injuries and workloads under schedule pressure.

* NBA teams playing in the back-to-back home game scenario are 17-12 SU and 20-9 ATS vs. teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+12.5 vs DEN)

* NBA teams playing on the road in the 2 Days Rest game scenario are 43-23 Under the total vs. teams playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the since 2021
* DENVER is 20-4 Over the total (85.7%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games, since the start of last season
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in DEN-NOP (o/u at 234.5)

* NBA teams playing in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario are 171-251 SU and 193-220 ATS vs. teams playing a 3rd Straight Home game over the last four seasons
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+15.5 at MIN)

* MEMPHIS is 14-3 Over the total playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since January 2026
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-MEM (o/u at 228.5)

* CLEVELAND is just 30-35 SU and 21-44 ATS (32.3%) vs. teams that have winning records, since the start of last season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+1.5 vs DAL)

* DETROIT is 23-13 Under the total (63.9%) as a favorite of -1.5 to -5 points since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-MIA (o/u at 228.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) DENVER at (502) NEW ORLEANS
* DENVER is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games with New Orleans
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-12.5 at NOP)

(503) DALLAS at (504) CLEVELAND
* Road teams are on an 8-3 SU and 10-1 ATS run in the Mavs-Cavs  non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-1.5 at CLE)

(505) DETROIT at (506) MIAMI
* Underdogs are on an extended 16-3 ATS run in the Pistons-Heat series
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+4.5 vs DET)

(507) CHICAGO at (508) MINNESOTA
* Road teams are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between Chicago and Minnesota
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+15.5 at MIN)

(509) BROOKLYN at (510) MEMPHIS
* Home teams are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the last four of the Nets-Grizzlies set
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-3.5 vs BKN)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last six NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 150-128 (54%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 281-236 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 375-312 (54.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DEN-NOP (spread NOP +12.5, o/u at 234.5), CHI-MIN (spread MIN -15.5, o/u at 235.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last six seasons unless noted.

Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 71-103 SU and 75-94-5 ATS (44.4%) slide.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+15.5 at MIN)

Allowing 120+ points in a win has led to more high-scoring games
NBA teams off of a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 100-66-1 (60.2%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-MIA (o/u at 228.5)

Large favorites off a solid defensive win
5) NBA teams off a win where they allowed <= 105 points and are now large favorites (-11 or more) in the next contest have had their totals go OVER at a 202-142-1 (58.7%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-MIN (o/u at 235.5)

Rout games can be significant
NBA teams coming off any game in which they lost on the point spread by 25 points or more have gone 166-56 SU and 124-96-2 ATS (56.4%) when a pick ‘em or favorite in their follow-up contest since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-1.5 at CLE)

Upset wins/losses
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 180-225 SU and 177-224-4 ATS (44.1%) (sub-system: 19-48 SU and 22-43-2 ATS (33.8%) vs. opponents giving up <= 108 PPG) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+15.5 at MIN)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 441-377 (53.9%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BKN-MEM (o/u at 228.5), DEN-NOP (o/u at 234.5), DET-MIA (o/u at 228.5)

Defending the 3-point arc can lead to Unders
Teams playing on zero rest and holding their previous opponent to a <= 0.20 three-point % have continued this impressive defense, as next game totals of >= 224.5 have gone Under at a 33-14 (70.2%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-MIN (o/u at 235.5)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 169-29 SU but 88-107-3 ATS (45.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): MINNESOTA (-15.5 vs CHI)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 148-114-2 (56.5%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-NOP (o/u at 234.5)

NBA Streak Betting System #12:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 126-160 SU but 157-127-3 ATS (55.3%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+12.5 vs DEN)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 246-213 ATS (53.6%) over the last four seasons, good for +11.7 units of profit and a ROI of 2.5%. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 996-920 ATS (52%) over the last four seasons. This has produced -16 units and an ROI of -0.8%. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last four seasons, that group produced a 169-150 ATS record (53%). This has netted +4 units and an ROI of 1.3%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, CLEVELAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 586-535 ATS record (52.3%), going for -2.5 units of profit and an ROI of -0.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, CLEVELAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 119-160 ATS (42.7%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -57 units for an ROI of -20.4%.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 559-496 ATS (53%). This simple angle has produced +13.4 units of profit and an ROI of +1.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, MEMPHIS, MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 697-621 ATS record, good for 52.9%. This is about a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +13.9 units of profit and an ROI of +1.1%.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1783-796 over the last three seasons but for -300.65 units and a ROI of -11.7%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1372-902 but for just -46.24 units and an ROI of -2%. This 9.7%+ disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams consistently.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MEMPHIS ML, MINNESOTA ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last four seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 570-474, good for 54.6%, +48.7 units, and an ROI of +4.7% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-MIA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 226-176 (56.2%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been a very profitable angle in terms of ROI, producing +32.4 units of profit for +8.1%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-MIA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Essentially, the opposite of #13 above is the situation when so much money is coming in on majority handle on an Over that DraftKings is forced to move a total higher. When 77% or more majority handle bettors are on Over for a game that has seen its total rise since opening, that group has gone 359-284 (55.8%) since January 2023. This recently discovered and best units angle has produced +46.6 units of profit for +7.2%.
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-MEM

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +1.5 (+3.0)
2. CHICAGO +15.5 (+2.5)
3. NEW ORLEANS +12.5 (+1.7)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MEMPHIS -3.5 (+0.7)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +12.5 (+6.3)
2. BROOKLYN +3.5 (+2.0)
3. CHICAGO +15.5 (+1.1)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -4.5 (+2.8)
2. DALLAS -1.5 (+1.6)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-MIN OVER 235.5 (+2.5)
2. DAL-CLE OVER 231.5 (+1.4)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-MIA UNDER 228.5 (-1.5)
2. BKN-MEM UNDER 228.5 (-0.8)
3. DEN-NOP UNDER 234.5 (-0.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +1.5 (+3.4)
2. CHICAGO +15.5 (+2.6)
3. MIAMI +4.5 (+1.5)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MEMPHIS -3.5 (+0.4)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-MIN OVER 235.5 (+3.5)
2. DET-MIA OVER 228.5 (+0.9)
3. BKN-MEM OVER 228.5 (+0.2)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-NOP UNDER 234.5 (-2.1)
2. DAL-CLE UNDER 231.5 (-0.6)

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