Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on 10/31. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s NBA games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* UTAH is 13-2 Over the total playing with 2 Days Rest since April 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): POR-UTA (o/u at 231.5)
* Over the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the Twolves-Spurs set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-SAS (o/u at 227.5)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether because of the rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they manage injuries and workloads under schedule pressure.
* NBA teams playing in the back-to-back home/away game scenario are 26-61 SU and 33-53 ATS vs. teams playing a 4th Home in 6 Days game over the last three Seasons
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at CHA)
* NBA teams playing in the 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario are 47-34 ATS vs. teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game over the last four Seasons
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+4.5 vs ATL)
* NBA teams playing in the One Day Rest game scenario are 64-33 Under the total vs. teams playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the since 2021
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-NOP (o/u at 240.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario were 36-16 SU and 34-18 ATS hosting teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game last season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO (-12.5 vs MIN), MILWAUKEE (+8.5 vs CLE)
* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario are 33-19 Over the total hosting teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game over the last season
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIN-SAS (o/u at 227.5), CLE-MIL (o/u at 237.5)
* NBA teams playing in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario are 166-246 SU and 187-216 ATS vs. teams playing a 3rd Straight Home game over the last four seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-8.5 at MIL), ATLANTA (-4.5 at NOP)
* HOUSTON is 64-109 SU and 70-100 ATS playing in the 4thin6Days game scenario since Deb ’21
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-2.5 vs OKC)
* PORTLAND is 25-15 Over the total (62.5%) in their last 40 games as a favorite
* UTAH is 13-2 Over the total playing with 2 Days Rest since April 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): POR-UTA (o/u at 231.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(521) PORTLAND at (522) UTAH
* UTAH is 4-6 SU but 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with Portland
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+7.5 vs POR)
* Over the total is also 9-1 in these games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): POR-UTA (o/u at 232.5)
(523) PHILADELPHIA at (524) CHARLOTTE
* Road teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the 76ers-Hornets set
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at CHA)
(525) ATLANTA at (526) NEW ORLEANS
* Favorites have won and covered all five matchups between Atlanta and New Orleans since the start of 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-4.5 at NOP)
(527) SACRAMENTO at (528) MEMPHIS
* Road teams are on a 4-0 SU and ATS surge in Kings-Grizzlies series
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+9.5 at MEM)
(529) CLEVELAND at (530) MILWAUKEE
* Underdogs are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five of the Cavs-Bucks divisional series at Fiserv Forum
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+8.5 vs CLE)
(531) MINNESOTA at (532) SAN ANTONIO
* Over the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the Twolves-Spurs set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-SAS (o/u at 227.5)
(533) OKLAHOMA CITY at (534) HOUSTON
* Over the total is 7-2 in the last nine matchups between Oklahoma City and Houston
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-HOU (o/u at 218.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last six NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 199-78 SU and 158-118-1 ATS (57.2%) run.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR HOUSTON vs OKC (-2.5 CURRENTLY)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 48-136 SU and 81-98-5 ATS (45.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): UTAH (+7.5 vs POR), MILWAUKEE (+8.5 vs CLE)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 146-128 (53.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 279-233 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 370-302 (55.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIN-SAS (spread -12.5, o/u at 227.5)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Western Northwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on a 20-24 SU and 32-12 ATS (72.7%) run since early-November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+7.5 vs POR)
Western Northwest Division Betting System #2:
In Western Northwest divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game have their totals go Over at a 34-15 (69.4%) rate in the last 49 instances.
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-UTA (o/u at 232.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last six seasons unless noted.
Favorites flush low scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 170-63 SU and 136-95-2 ATS (58.9%) in their last 233 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR CHARLOTTE vs PHI (+1.5 CURRENTLY)
Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 190-88 SU and 154-120-4 ATS (56.2%) (sub-system: 94-32 SU and 73-49-4 ATS (59.8%) when favored by 4 points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-7.5 at UTA)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 320-175 SU but just 205-277-13 ATS (42.5%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-4.5 at NOP)
Rout games can be significant
NBA teams coming off any game in which they lost on the point spread by 25 points or more have gone 162-54 SU and 122-92-2 ATS (57%) when a pick ‘em or favorite in their follow-up contest since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): PORTLAND (-7.5 at UTA)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 108-80 SU and 110-77-1 ATS (58.8%) in their last 188 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR NEW ORLEANS vs ATL (+4.5 CURRENTLY)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least 5 games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 9-28 SU but 27-10 ATS (73%) when set as double-digit underdogs since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR SACRAMENTO at MEM (+9.5 CURRENTLY)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 8:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 238-207 ATS (53.5%) over the last four seasons, good for +10.3 units of profit and an ROI of 2.3%. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 977-897 ATS (52.1%) over the last four seasons. This has produced -9.7 units and an ROI of -0.5%. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last four seasons, that group produced a 167-142 ATS record (54%). This has netted +10.8 units and an ROI of 3.5%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 573-518 ATS record (52.5%), good for +3.2 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, SAN ANTONIO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK supermajority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 552-486 ATS (53.2%). This simple angle has produced +17.4 units of profit and an ROI of +1.7%.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 680-603 ATS record, good for 53%. This is about a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +16.7 units of profit and an ROI of +1.3%.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last four seasons, they are just 204-223 ATS, good for 47.8%. This is almost a 4% drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.2 units of loss and an ROI of -9.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): UTAH, CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last four seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 560-466, good for 54.6%, +47.4 units, and an ROI of +4.6% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-CHA, SAC-MEM, MIN-SAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit over 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 488-423 (53.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – PHI-CHA, OKC-HOU
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Essentially the opposite of #13 above is the situation when so much money is coming in on majority handle on an Over that DraftKings is forced to move a total higher. When 77% or more majority handle bettors are on Over for a game that has seen its total rise since opening, that group has gone 353-278 (55.9%) since January 2023. This recently discovered and best units off all angle has produced +47.2 units of profit for +7.5%.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): ATL-NOP, CLE-MIL
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +12.5 (+2.9)
2(tie). MILWAUKEE +8.5 (+1.0)
OKLAHOMA CITY +2.5 (+1.0)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+2.0)
2. MEMPHIS -9.5 (+1.8)
3. PORTLAND -7.5 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +1.5 (+3.7)
2. MINNESOTA +12.5 (+3.1)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY +2.5 (+1.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS -9.5 (+5.0)
2. PORTLAND -7.5 (+0.9)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-CHA OVER 215.5 (+2.3)
2. POR-UTA OVER 232.5 (+0.5)
3. CLE-MIL OVER 237.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-NOP UNDER 240.5 (-1.7)
2. MIN-SAS UNDER 227.5 (-1.2)
3. OKC-HOU UNDER 218.5 (-0.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +12.5 (+2.9)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY +2.5 (+0.6)
3. MILWAUKEE +8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS -9.5 (+3.8)
2. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+2.7)
3. PORTLAND -7.5 (+2.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-MEM OVER 231.5 (+1.6)
2. POR-UTA OVER 232.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-CHA UNDER 215.5 (-4.2)
2. CLE-MIL UNDER 237.5 (-1.7)
3. ATL-NOP UNDER 240.5 (-1.4)
