The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on 11/12. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s NBA games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario were 8-0 Over the total vs. teams playing a 3+ Days Rest game last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-MIN (o/u at 225.5)

* Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the Raptors-76ers divisional set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-PHI (o/u at 223.5)

* NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 180-224 SU and 176-224-4 ATS (44%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+6.5 at PHX)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* DALLAS is just 4-23 SU and 10-17 ATS (37%) vs. winning teams on the road, since the start of last season
Trend Match (FADE): DALLAS (+5.5 at MIN)

* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario were 8-0 Over the total vs. teams playing a 3+ Days Rest game last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-MIN (o/u at 225.5)

* WASHINGTON is 0-18 SU and 2-16 ATS playing in 4th in 6 Days games since February 2026
* WASHINGTON is 8-25 SU and 11-22 ATS (33.3%) vs. the lowest-scoring teams in the league this season (scoring <114 PPG), since the start of last season
* WASHINGTON is 1-20 SU and 5-16 ATS playing at home in 3rd in 4 Days games since March 2025
Trends Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+10.5 vs DET)

* PHOENIX is 20-2 SU and 17-5 ATS (77.3%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games, since the start of last season
* NBA teams playing in the 2 Days Rest game scenario are 10-17 SU and ATS vs. teams playing a 4th Home in 6 Days game since 2020
System/Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-6.5 vs CHA)

* NBA teams playing on the road in the 2 Days Rest game scenario are 42-23 Under the total vs. teams playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game since 2021
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-PHX (o/u at 214.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(549) TORONTO at (550) PHILADELPHIA
* Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the Raptors-76ers divisional set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-PHI (o/u at 223.5)

(551) DETROIT at (552) WASHINGTON
* DETROIT is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Washington DC
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-10.5 at WSH)

(553) DALLAS at (554) MINNESOTA
* Road teams are 7-2 SU and ATS in the last nine of the Mavs-Twolves series
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+5.5 at MIN)

(555) CHARLOTTE at (556) PHOENIX
* Over the total has converted in five of the last six meetings between Charlotte and Phoenix at Mortgage Matchup Center
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-PHX (o/u at 214.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last six NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 202-82 SU & 161-122-1 ATS (56.9%) run.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-5.5 vs DAL)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 150-128 (54%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 281-236 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 373-310 (54.6%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – DET-WSH (spread WSH +10.5, o/u at 220.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, single-digit favorites have gone 110-46 SU and 91-72-3 ATS (55.8%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-8.5 vs TOR)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last six seasons unless noted.

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 180-224 SU and 176-224-4 ATS (44%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+6.5 at PHX)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 370-374 SU and 339-397-8 ATS (46.1%) in the next game over the last six seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (+6.5 at PHX), PHOENIX (-6.5 vs CHA)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 147-113-2 (56.5%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-WSH (o/u at 220.5)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 995-916 ATS (52.1%) over the last four seasons. This has produced -12.6 units and a ROI of -0.7%. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 583-533 ATS record (52.2%), going for -3.3 units of profit and a ROI of -0.3%.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 119-160 ATS (42.7%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -57 units for an ROI of -20.4%.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 696-620 ATS record, good for 52.9%. This is about a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +14 units of profit and an ROI of +1.1%.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference & non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however: 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last four seasons, they are just 210-224 ATS, good for 48.4%. This is almost a 4% drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -36.3 units of loss and an ROI of -8.4%.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1777-796 over the last three seasons but for -306.65 units and an ROI of -11.9%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1369-898 but for just -40.09 units and na ROI of -1.8%. This 10%+ disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams consistently.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA ML, PHOENIX ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last four seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 568-474, good for 54.5%, +46.7 units, and an ROI of +4.5% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-WSH, DAL-MIN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit over 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 497-430 (53.6%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 490-446 (52.4%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – CHA-PHX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Essentially the opposite of #13 above is the situation when so much money is coming in on majority handle on an Over that DraftKings is forced to move a total higher. When 77% or more majority handle bettors are on Over for a game that has seen its total rise since opening, that group has gone 358-283 (55.9%) since January 2023. This recently discovered and best units angle has produced +46.7 units of profit for +7.3%.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): TOR-PHI, CHA-PHX

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: WASHINGTON +10.5 (+1.4)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -8.5 (+1.1)
2. PHOENIX -6.5 (+0.5)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +8.5 (+0.2)
2. WASHINGTON +10.5 (+0.1)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -5.5 (+0.2)
2. PHOENIX -6.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-PHI UNDER 223.5 (-2.6)
2. DAL-MIN UNDER 225.5 (-1.4)
3. DET-WSH UNDER 220.5 (-1.2)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +10.5 (+2.2)
2. DALLAS +5.5 (+0.7)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -8.5 (+0.9)
2. PHOENIX -6.5 (+0.4)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CHA-PHX OVER 214.5 (+2.3)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-WSH UNDER 220.5 (-1.1)
2. TOR-PHI UNDER 223.5 (-0.7)

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