Tuley’s Takes: Monday Best Bet in NBA Finals, plus 1 MLB First 5 Innings play 6/12

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Sunday Best Bet Results

Sunday was a surreal day in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office as it felt incomplete with no NBA or NHL playoff games on the schedule.
Personally, I used the time to join my family at the “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” movie. Before the movie (a sequel to 2018’s “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”) came out, they announced that there would a third part to the trilogy in 2024 (so we don’t think we’re spoiling anything here), but it was still a shock and a bit of a disappointment when the movie ended with a “to be continued . . . ”

 

I also spent the later part of the day playing in a WSOP online bracelet event, which I was still playing in while I made my weekly appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on VSiN (11: 15 p.m. ET/8:15 p.m. PT each Sunday night, or 15 minutes into the archived version). Unfortunately, I didn’t cash.
As for my sports bets, we lost our 2 MLB plays on the Rangers First 5 +155 at the Rays (trailed 7-3 after 5 innings) and Astros First 5 +115 at the Guardians (trailed 4-0). However, we did win our USFL play on the New Jersey Generals +2 vs. the Philadelphia Stars as the Generals won 37-33. We would normally call it an upset, but the Generals ended up closing as 2.5-point favorites as the line flipped during the day on Sunday. We joked on Twitter about moving the market – and certainly hope many of our readers were loading up on the Generals and moving the line – but we assume a lot of game-day bettors also noticed that the Generals, despite having a worse record, still had the USFL’s No. 1 scoring defense while the Stars were No. 8.
I just wish we had listed it as our Best Bet of the day as I liked it so much but felt there would still be more interest in MLB plays over the USFL.
The 1-2 mark on the day dropped our June record to 11-13-4 for a net loss of just -112.27 based on $100 flat bets, according to the VSiN Pro Picks page, after making +15.6 units in May.
Let’s look for Monday wagers with the NBA Finals resuming along with a couple of MLB plays.

NBA Monday Best Bet

Heat +9 at Nuggets: As we discussed on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday, the Nuggets have been the superior team in this series, including covering as road favorites in the two games in Miami, However, we’re backing the Heat here as we expect them to come up with a big effort as they try to avoid elimination. We’re encouraged by the fact that in the first two games in Denver, they shot poorly in Game 1 and still almost covered in the 11-point loss and then rebounded to win outright in Game 2. Even if they don’t win straight-up, we’re counting on Jimmy Butler and Co. to keep this close and at least cover the big spread.

MLB Monday Best Bet

Rockies First 5 Innings +195 at Red Sox: This is a “swagger” play on the Rockies as they snapped a 6-game losing streak in a rain-interrupted 9th-inning rally to beat the Padres 5-4. We look for them to carry that momentum into their Monday game in Boston. We don’t have the best pitching matchup with Connor Seabold (1-2, 5.10 ERA) vs. James Paxton (2-1, 3.81 ERA), but we’re mostly betting the situation. We had forgotten about this at the time, but Peterson pointed out to me on his show that this is also a system play on fading a team coming off of Sunday Night Baseball. Note: we also have a potential bonus play on the Tigers First 5 vs. the Braves as Atlanta is in an “anti-swagger” role after having their 7-game winning streak snapped on Sunday. We can’t make it an official Best Bet as no books had a line up early Monday morning with the Tigers’ starting pitcher TBD, but we’re still planning to play them as it should be in the +150 range.