HomeNBAVSiN Analytics NBA Betting Trend Report - April 2

    VSiN Analytics NBA Betting Trend Report – April 2

    Steve Makinen and the VSiN Analytics team provide the NBA betting trends you need to know for Tuesday, April 2.

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    The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, April 2, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

    Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

    One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

     

    Top NBA Resources:

    In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, MILWAUKEE, OKLAHOMA CITY, NEW YORK, HOUSTON, CLEVELAND, SAN ANTONIO, DALLAS

    At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

    The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
    System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, OKLAHOMA CITY, DALLAS

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, OKLAHOMA CITY, UTAH

    The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
    System Matches (PLAY): SACRAMENTO ML

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
    System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML, SAN ANTONIO ML, DALLAS ML, SACRAMENTO ML

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until somethings changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS ML, MILWAUKEE ML, CLEVELAND ML, DENVER ML

    These last two systems involve totals.

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
    System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-WSH, DAL-GSW

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
    System Matches: PLAY OVER in NYK-MIA, PLAY OVER in HOU-MIN, PLAY OVER in CLE-UTA

    Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

    The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

    We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

    NO QUALIFYING GENERAL SCHEDULING SITUATIONS TODAY

    Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

    There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these angles will apply the rest of the way.

    The LA CLIPPERS boast a phenomenal 31-15 SU and 26-20 ATS (56.5%) record as a single-digit favorite this season.
    4/2 at Sacramento
    System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-2 at SAC)

    The LA LAKERS have gone 23-13 Over the total (63.9%) on the road so far this season.
    4/2 at Toronto
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total in LAL-TOR (o/u at 233)

    WASHINGTON is 21-13 ATS (61.8%) as a road underdog this season but 11-21-1 ATS (34.4%) as a home underdog.
    4/2 vs Milwaukee
    System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+13 vs MIL)

    The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

    * GOLDEN STATE is 26-16 OVER the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
    4/2: Over the total in DALLAS-GOLDEN STATE
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total in DAL-GSW (o/u at 232.5)

    * LA CLIPPERS is 17-5 Over the total in the 4th Straight Road game scenario over the last three seasons
    4/2: Over the total in SACRAMENTO-LA CLIPPERS
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total in LAC-SAC (o/u at 222.5)

    * TORONTO is 31-12 SU and 29-14 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
    4/2: TORONTO vs. La Lakers
    System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+12 vs LAL)

    NBA Team Strength Systems

    The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

    NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
    Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 158-30 SU but just 79-106-3 ATS (42.7%) over the last two seasons.
    System Matches: FADE LA LAKERS (-12 at TOR), FADE CLEVELAND (-12.5 at UTA)

    NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
    Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 80-64 (55.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 149-124 (54.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 201-142 (58.6%).
    System Matches: PLAY OVER in LAL-TOR (o/u at 233), PLAY OVER in MIL-WSH (o/u at 228.5), PLAY OVER in CLE-UTA (o/u at 218), PLAY OVER in SAS-DEN (o/u at 223.5)

    NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

    These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

    Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward.
    NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 229-125 SU but just 149-194-11 ATS (43.4%) in the next contest when favored again.
    System Match: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 at PHI)

    Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts.
    NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 240-190 SU but 184-235-11 ATS (43.9%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 33-60 ATS.
    System Match: FADE DENVER (-16 vs SAS)

    Unusual shooting performance systems.
    NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 264-208 (55.9%) since 2021.
    System Match: PLAY UNDER in MIL-WSH (o/u at 228.5)

    NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 222-238 SU and 204-251-5 ATS (44.8%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
    System Match: FADE DALLAS (+1 at GSW), FADE PHILADELPHIA (+5.5 vs OKC), FADE DENVER (-16 vs SAS), FADE SACRAMENTO (+2 vs LAC)

    Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 230-225 SU and 205-237-11 ATS (46.4%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
    System Match: FADE DALLAS (+1 at GSW), FADE PHILADELPHIA (+5.5 vs OKC), FADE DENVER (-16 vs SAS), FADE SACRAMENTO (+2 vs LAC)

    NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 121-147 SU and 120-141-7 ATS (46%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons.
    System Match: FADE DALLAS (+1 at GSW)

    Teams not making many free throws bounce back well.
    NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 150-129 SU and 158-113-8 ATS (58.3%) run.
    System Match: PLAY DALLAS (+1 at GSW)

    Unusual defensive performances
    Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 143-54 SU and 111-84-2 ATS (56.9%) over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
    System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-12.5 at UTA), PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-2 at SAC)

    NBA Streak Systems

    The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

    NBA Streak Betting System #6:
    Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 58-67 SU and 68-55-3 ATS (55.3%) surge.
    System Matches: PLAY UTAH (+12.5 vs CLE)

    NBA Streak Betting System #8:
    Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 185-229 ATS (44.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 24-106 SU and 55-72-3 ATS (43.3%).
    System Matches: FADE TORONTO (+12 vs LAL), FADE DALLAS (+1 at GSW), FADE UTAH (+12.5 vs CLE)

    Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

    The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +7.5 (+2.3), 2. WASHINGTON +13 (+1.6), 3. NEW YORK +3 (+0.8)

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -12 (+1.2), 2. DENVER -16 (+0.8), 3. CLEVELAND -12.5 (+0.4)

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +13 (+1.7), 2. HOUSTON +7.5 (+0.5), 3. PHILADELPHIA +5 (+0.4)

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -12.5 (+0.7), 2. GOLDEN STATE -1 (+0.5), 3. LA CLIPPERS -2 (+0.3)

    Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-MIN OVER 215 (+4.2), 2. CLE-UTA OVER 218 (+1.3), 3. DAL-GSW OVER 232 (+0.9)

    Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-PHI UNDER 224 (-6.4), 2. NYK-MIA UNDER 206.5 (-5.0), 3. LAC-SAC UNDER 222.5 (-4.4)

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +7.5 (+1.9), 2. WASHINGTON +13 (+1.2), 3. NEW YORK +3 (+0.9)

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -12 (+1.8), 2. DENVER -16 (+1.2), 3. CLEVELAND -12.5 (+0.6)

    Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-UTA OVER 218 (+4.1), 2. LAC-SAC OVER 222.5 (+2.3), 3. MIL-WSH OVER 227.5 (+0.6)

    Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-PHI UNDER 224 (-7.1), 2. NYK-MIA UNDER 206.5 (-5.3), 3. SAS-DEN UNDER 223.5 (-4.6)

    Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

    (573) CLEVELAND at (574) UTAH
    * HOME TEAMS are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the CLE-UTA series
    System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS

    (579) DALLAS at (580) GOLDEN STATE
    * DALLAS has won the last five ATS against Golden State
    System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

    (571) HOUSTON at (572) MINNESOTA
    * MINNESOTA is on a 10-3 ATS run versus Houston
    System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

    (577) LA CLIPPERS at (578) SACRAMENTO
    * Road teams are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the LAC-SAC series
    System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

    (563) LA LAKERS at (564) TORONTO
    * Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven in the LAL-TOR series
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total

    (565) MILWAUKEE at (566) WASHINGTON
    * Over the total is 12-5 in the MIL-WAS series since 2019
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total

    (569) NEW YORK at (570) MIAMI
    * MIAMI is 4-2 ATS in the last six versus New York
    System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS

    (567) OKLAHOMA CITY at (568) PHILADELPHIA
    * OKLAHOMA CITY is on a 5-1 ATS run at Philadelphia
    System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

    (575) SAN ANTONIO at (576) DENVER
    * Home teams are 4-1 ATS in the last five of the SAN-DEN series
    System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

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