The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, April 3, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

Top NBA Resources:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, MILWAUKEE, BOSTON, NEW ORLEANS, MINNESOTA, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY): INDIANA

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE, MILWAUKEE, INDIANA, NEW ORLEANS, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, CHARLOTTE, MILWAUKEE, BOSTON, NEW ORLEANS, MINNESOTA, PHOENIX

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ORLANDO ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS ML, ATLANTA ML, MILWAUKEE ML, MINNESOTA ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAL-WSH, POR-CHA, TOR-MIN, CLE-PHX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in POR-CHA, PLAY OVER in ORL-NOP, PLAY OVER in TOR-MIN

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 65-28 SU and 56-34-3 ATS (62.2%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
4/3: WASHINGTON vs. La Lakers
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+13 vs LAL)

* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 24-34 SU but 33-24-1 ATS (57.9%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
4/3: LA LAKERS at Washington
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS (-13 at WSH)

* Home teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game were 49-26 SU and 40-34-1 ATS (54.1%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
4/3: WASHINGTON vs. LA Lakers
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+13 vs LAL)

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 32-32 SU and 37-27 ATS (57.8%) hosting teams playing a 3rdStraightRoad game in the last two seasons.
4/3: WASHINGTON vs. La Lakers
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+13 vs LAL)

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home were 32-14 SU and 31-15 ATS (67.4%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
4/3: WASHINGTON vs. La Lakers
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+13 vs LAL)

* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 20-14 SU and 21-13  ATS (61.8%) last season hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
4/3: WASHINGTON vs. LA Lakers
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+13 vs LAL)

* Under the total was 95-65-1 (59.4%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
4/3: Under the total in CHARLOTTE-PORTLAND
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 212.5)

* Over the total was 75-57 (56.8%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
4/3: Over the total in WASHINGTON-LA LAKERS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 233.5)

* Over the total was 81-53 (60.4%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
4/3: Over the total in WASHINGTON-LA LAKERS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 233.5)

* Over the total was 66-55 (54.5%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
4/3: Over the total in WASHINGTON-LA LAKERS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 233.5)

* Over the total was 32-20 (61.5%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
4/3: Over the total in WASHINGTON-LA LAKERS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 233.5)

* Under the total is 16-10 (61.5%) over last two seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
4/3: UNDER the total in MINNESOTA-TORONTO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 215)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these angles will apply the rest of the way.

ATLANTA is 21-24 SU and 16-29 ATS (35.6%) when playing on a full day’s rest this season
4/3 vs. Detroit
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-11.5 vs DET)

BOSTON is 10-3 SU but 3-9-1 ATS (25%) at home this season versus teams with current Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 100 or higher.
4/3 vs. Oklahoma City
System Match: FADE BOSTON ATS (-9 vs OKC)

The LA LAKERS have gone 24-13 Over the total (64.9%) on the road so far this season.
4/3 at Washington
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in LAL-WSH (o/u at 233.5)

ORLANDO has thrived in the commonplace One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 32-12 SU and 31-13 ATS (70.5%).
4/3 at New Orleans
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (+4 at NOP)

WASHINGTON is 21-13 ATS (61.8%) as a road underdog this season but 12-21-1 ATS (36.4%) as a home underdog.
4/3 vs LA Lakers
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+13 vs LAL)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* BROOKLYN was 19-11 Under the total at home in the 4th in 6 Days scenario last season
4/3: Under the total in INDIANA-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 230.5)

* CHARLOTTE is 28-16 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last three seasons
4/3: Under the total in PORTLAND-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 212.5)

* CLEVELAND is 12-2 Under the total in the A2A b2b game scenario over the last three seasons
4/3: Under the total in PHOENIX-CLEVELAND
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 226.5)

* MEMPHIS is 21-8 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
4/3: Under the total in MILWAUKEE-MEMPHIS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 220.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 90-57 SU and 87-57-3 ATS (60.4%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY PORTLAND (+1 at CHA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 159-30 SU but just 80-106-3 ATS (43%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE LA LAKERS (-13 vs WSH), FADE MILWAUKEE (-13.5 vs MEM), FADE MINNESOTA (-15.5 vs TOR)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 80-64 (55.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 150-124 (54.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 202-143 (58.6%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in LAL-WSH (o/u at 233.5), PLAY OVER in DET-ATL (o/u at 224.5), PLAY OVER in MEM-MIL (o/u at 220.5), PLAY OVER in TOR-MIN (o/u at 215)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the teams’ follow-up game results. Unless noted, these systems are from the last four or more seasons.

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well.
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 150-130 SU and 158-114-8 ATS (58.1%) run.
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS (-13 at WSH)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 185-232 ATS (44.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 24-106 SU and 55-72-3 ATS (43.3%).
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (+15.5 at MIN), FADE PORTLAND (+1 at CHA)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +1 (+1.6), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY +9 (+1.1), 3. ORLANDO +4 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -15.5 (+3.9), 2. LA LAKERS -12.5 (+1.7), 3. PHOENIX -6 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). OKLAHOMA CITY +9 (+2.2) and BROOKLYN +7.5 (+2.2), 3. ORLANDO +4 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -12.5 (+1.1), 2. CHARLOTTE -1 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-MIL OVER 220.5 (+1.5), 2. LAL-WSH OVER 207.5 (+0.5), 3. IND-BKN OVER 230.5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-PHX UNDER 226.5 (-3.5), 2. POR-CHA UNDER 212.5 (-2.9), 3. TOR-MIN UNDER 215 (-0.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY +9 (+2.0), 2(tie). BROOKLYN +7.5 (+0.5) and ORLANDO +4 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA =15.5 (+4.7), 2. LA LAKERS -12.5 (+1.9), 3. PHOENIX -6 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-WSH OVER 233.5 (+3.3), 2. MEM-MIL OVER 220.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). POR-CHA UNDER 212.5 (-3.7) and CLE-PHX UNDER 226.5 (-3.7), 3. IND-BKN UNDER 230.5 (-1.9)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(517) CLEVELAND at (518) PHOENIX
* Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in the last five of the CLE-PHX series
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

(505) DETROIT at (506) ATLANTA
* Over the total is 13-2 in the last 15 of the DET-ATL series at Atlanta
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(511) INDIANA at (512) BROOKLYN
* INDIANA is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 at Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

(501) LA LAKERS at (502) WASHINGTON
* Underdogs are on a 6-1 ATS run in the LAL-WAS series
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS

(507) MEMPHIS at (508) MILWAUKEE
* MEMPHIS is 7-1 ATS in the last eight versus Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

(509) OKLAHOMA CITY at (510) BOSTON
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-1 ATS in the last nine versus Boston
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

(513) ORLANDO at (514) NEW ORLEANS
* ORLANDO is 6-0 ATS in the last six at New Orleans
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

(503) PORTLAND at (504) CHARLOTTE
* The last three games of the POR-CHA series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(515) TORONTO at (516) MINNESOTA
* TORONTO is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 versus Minnesota
System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS

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