HomeNBAVSiN Analytics NBA Betting Trend Report - February 28

    VSiN Analytics NBA Betting Trend Report – February 28

    Steve Makinen and the VSiN Analytics team share today's most important NBA betting trends for Wednesday, February 28.

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    The following are NBA betting trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, February 28, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

    Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

    One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

     

    Top NBA Resources:

    In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, DENVER, LA CLIPPERS

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, MEMPHIS, CLEVELAND

    At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

    The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
    System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, LA CLIPPERS

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, DALLAS

    The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND ML, LA CLIPPERS ML

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
    System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA ML

    These last four systems involve totals.

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
    System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOP-IND, DAL-TOR, MEM-MIN, SAC-DEN, LAL-LAC

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
    System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): NOP-IND, DAL-TOR, LAL-LAC

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
    System Matches: PLAY UNDER in MEM-MIN, PLAY OVER in CLE-CHI

    Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

    The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

    We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

    * Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 60-26 SU and 51-32-3 ATS (61.4%) hosting teams playing an A2A b2b game last season.
    2/28: INDIANA vs. New Orleans
    System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-6 vs NOP)

    * Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 23-33 SU BUT 32-23-1 ATS (58.2%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
    2/28: NEW ORLEANS at Indiana
    System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+6 at IND)

    * Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home were 30-13 SU and 29-14 ATS (67.4%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
    2/28: INDIANA vs. New Orleans
    System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-6 vs NOP)

    * Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 51-42 SU and 50-42-1 ATS (54.3%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
    2/28: MINNESOTA vs. Memphis
    System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-12 vs MEM)

    * Over the total was 64-51 (55.7%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
    2/28: Over the total in INDIANA-NEW ORLEANS
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 238)

    * Under the total was 48-43-1 (52.7%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
    2/28: Under the total in MEMPHIS-MINNESOTA
    System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 209.5)

    * Umder the total is 16-9 (64%) over last two seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
    2/28: Under the total in CHICAGO-CLEVELAND
    System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 216)

    Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

    There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. At this point, with over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

    DALLAS boasts an impressive 11-2 SU and ATS (84.6%) record this season as a single-digit road favorite.
    The Mavericks have been wildly inconsistent this season. Some of it has to do with key players being in and out of the lineup, some of it due to home performance, some due to other factors. One area in which Dallas has thrived so far has been as a small favorite on the road, and these are the games I would expect them to play in that role in the latter part of the season:
    2/28 at Toronto
    System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-3 at TOR)

    The LA CLIPPERS boast a phenomenal 27-10 SU and 24-13 ATS (64.9%) record as a single-digit favorite this season.
    2/28 vs. LA Lakers
    System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-3.5 vs LAL)

    The LA LAKERS have gone 21-9 Over the total (70%) on the road so far this season.
    2/28 at LA Clippers
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 234.5)

    The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

    * INDIANA is 22-15 SU and 24-11-1 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home scenario game over the last three seasons
    2/28: INDIANA vs. New Orleans
    System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-6 vs NOP)

    * INDIANA is 57-34 Over the total at HOME in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
    2/28: Over the total in INDIANA-NEW ORLEANS
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 238)

    NBA Team Strength Systems

    The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

    NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
    Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 77-58 (57%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 143-113 (55.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 175-133 (56.8%).
    System Matches: PLAY OVER in MEM-MIN (o/u at 209.5)

    NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

    These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These NBA betting trend systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

    QUALITY OF WINS/LOSSES CAN MATTER

    Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward.
    NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 223-123 SU but just 144-191-11 ATS (43%) in the next contest when favored again.
    System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-5 at CHI)

    Divisional upsets can create urgency.
    NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 84-48 SU and 78-52-2 ATS (60%) in that follow-up try over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
    System Matches: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-3.5 vs LAL), PLAY CHICAGO (+5 vs CLE)

    UNUSUAL SHOOTING PERFORMANCE SYSTEMS

    NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 206-224 SU and 193-233-4 ATS (45.3%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
    System Matches: FADE NEW ORLEANS (+6 at IND), FADE CLEVELAND (-5 at CHI)

    Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 214-214 SU and 191-225-10 ATS (45.9%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
    System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-5 at CHI)

    NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 113-139 SU and 112-134-6 ATS (45.5%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons.
    System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-5 at CHI)

    Teams not making many free throws bounce back well,
    NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 145-117 SU and 152-103-7 ATS (59.6%) run.
    System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS (+3.5 at LAC)

    UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

    Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebound well when favored the next time out, going 135-51 SU and 103-81-2 ATS (56%) over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
    System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-3 at TOR)

    NBA Streak Systems

    The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

    NO QUALIFYING STREAK SYSTEMS TODAY

    Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

    The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +6 (+2.3), 2. CHICAGO +5 (+1.5), 3. LA LAKERS +3.5 (+0.7)

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -7.5 (+2.4), 2. DALLAS -3 (+0.8), 3. MINNESOTA -12 (+0.7)

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -3 (+0.9), 2(tie). LA CLIPPERS -3.5 (+0.7) and MINNESOTA -12 (+0.7)

    Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-TOR OVER 237.5 (+1.9), 2. CLE-CHI OVER 216 (+0.8), 3. SAC-DEN OVER 231 (+0.6)

    Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-MIN UNDER 209.5 (-1.9)

    Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +6 (+2.0), 2. CHICAGO +5 (+1.0)

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -7.5 (+3.3), 2. LA CLIPPERS -3.5 (+2.1), 3. DALLAS -3 (+0.2)

    Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-TOR OVER 237.5 (+6.4), 2. LAL-LAC OVER 234.5 (+5.8), 3. CLE-CHI OVER 216 (+4.3)

    Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-MIN UNDER 209.5 (-0.5)

    Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

    (529) CLEVELAND at (530) CHICAGO
    * The last four games of the CLE-CHI series have gone Under the total
    System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

    (527) DALLAS at (528) TORONTO
    * TORONTO is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven versus Dallas
    System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS

    (533) LA LAKERS at (534) LA CLIPPERS
    * LA CLIPPERS are 6-1 ATS in the last seven “at” LA CLIPPERS
    System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

    (525) MEMPHIS at (526) MINNESOTA
    * Favorites have won the last four ATS in the MEM-MIN series
    System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

    (523) NEW ORLEANS at (524) INDIANA
    * Home teams are 3-0-1 ATS in the last four of the NOP-IND series
    System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

    (531) SACRAMENTO at (532) DENVER
    * SACRAMENTO is on an 11-4 ATS surge versus Denver
    System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

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