HomeNBAVSiN Analytics NBA Betting Trend Report - March 16

    VSiN Analytics NBA Betting Trend Report – March 16

    Steve Makinen and the VSiN Analytics team share today's most important NBA betting trends for Saturday, March 16.

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    The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, March 16, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

    Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

    One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

     

    Top NBA Resources:

    In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 8:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, INDIANA, LA LAKERS, SACRAMENTO

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, OKLAHOMA CITY, MINNESOTA

    At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

    The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
    System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA, OKLAHOMA CITY, SACRAMENTO

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, SACRAMENTO

    The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA ML, LA LAKERS ML

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA ML, NEW ORLEANS ML, CHICAGO ML

    These last three systems involve totals.

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
    System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHA-PHI, POR-NOP, BKN-IND, OKC-MEM, WSH-CHI, GSW-LAL, MIN-UTA, NYK-SAC

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
    System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BKN-IND, WSH-CHI, GSW-LAL, MIN-UTA

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
    System Matches: PLAY OVER in CLE-HOU, PLAY UNDER in CHA-PHI, PLAY UNDER in POR-NOP, PLAY UNDER in OKC-MEM, PLAY OVER in NYK-SAC

    Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

    The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

    We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

    * Home teams on 2  DaysRest are 122-85 SU BUT 89-116-1 ATS (43.4%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.

    3/16: Fade INDIANA vs. Brooklyn
    System Match: FADE INDIANA (-8.5 vs BKN)

    3/16: Fade LA LAKERS vs. Golden State
    System Match: FADE LA LAKERS (-3 vs GSW)

    * Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 69-42 SU but 47-63-1 ATS (42.7%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
    3/16: FADE INDIANA vs. Brooklyn
    System Match: FADE INDIANA (-8.5 vs BKN)

    * Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 30-29 SU and 34-25 ATS (57.6%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
    3/16: UTAH vs. Minnesota
    System Match: PLAY UTAH (+7.5 vs MIN)

    * Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 56-48 SU and 55-47-2 ATS (53.9%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game over the last two seasons.
    3/16: NEW ORLEANS vs. Portland
    System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (-13 vs POR)

    * Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 17-12 SU and 18-11  ATS (62.1%) last season hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
    3/16: UTAH vs. Minnesota
    System Match: PLAY UTAH (+7.5 vs MIN)

    * Under the total was 93-61-1 (60.4%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
    3/16: Under the total in NEW ORLEANS-PORTLAND
    System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 212)

    * Over the total was 77-52 (59.7%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
    3/16: Over the total in UTAH-MINNESOTA
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 223.5)

    * Over the total was 38-27 (58.5%) last season when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
    3/16: OVER the total in PHILADELPHIA-CHARLOTTE
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 207.5)

    Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

    There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these angles will apply the rest of the way.

    WASHINGTON is 20-12 ATS (62.5%) as a road underdog this season but 9-20 ATS (31%) as a home underdog
    3/16 at Chicago
    System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+10 at CHI)

    The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

    * GOLDEN STATE is 24-14 Over the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
    3/16: Over the total in LA LAKERS-GOLDEN STATE
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 236)

    NBA Team Strength Systems

    The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

    NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
    Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 78-61 (56.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 145-116 (55.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 180-135 (57.1%).
    System Matches: PLAY OVER in CHA-PHI (o/u at 207.5), PLAY OVER in POR-NOP (o/u at 212), PLAY OVER in WSH-CHI (o/u at 226)

    NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

    These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

    Divisional upsets can create urgency
    NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 86-49 SU and 80-53-2 ATS (60.2%) in that follow-up try over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
    System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS (-3 vs GSW)

    Unusual shooting performance systems

    Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 219-219 SU and 196-230-10 ATS (46%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
    System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-5.5 at HOU)

    NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 116-143 SU and 115-138-6 ATS (45.5%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons.
    System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-5.5 at HOU)

    Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
    NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 147-121 SU and 154-107-7 ATS (59%) run.
    System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-5.5 at HOU)

    Unusual defensive performances
    Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebound well when favored the next time out, going 139-53 SU and 107-83-2 ATS (56.3%) over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
    System Match: PLAY CHICAGO (-10 vs WSH)

    NBA Streak Systems

    The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

    NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

    Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

    The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +5.5 (+3.2), 2. BROOKLYN +8.5 (+2.4), 3. NEW YORK +3 (+2.0)

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -13 (+4.5), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -10 (+3.7), 3. LA LAKERS -3 (+2.5)

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +5.5 (+3.1), 2. BROOKLYN +8.5 (+2.9), 3. NEW YORK +3 (+1.9)

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -13 (+5.3), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -10 (+4.9), 3. LA LAKERS -3 (+2.6)

    Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-IND OVER 228 (+4.0), 2. CLE-HOU OVER 214.5 (+3.9), 3. WSH-CHI OVER 226 (+3.2)

    Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-LAL UNDER 236 (-4.2), 2. MIN-UTA UNDER 224.5 (-4.0), 3. NYK-SAC UNDER 219 (-1.4)

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +8 (+3.1), 2. NEW YORK +3 (+2.5), 3. BROOKLYN +8.5 (+0.9)

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -13 (+3.9), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -10 (+2.8), 3. PHILADELPHIA -10.5 (+2.2)

    Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1(tie). CLE-HOU OVER 214.5 (+3.7) and POR-NOP OVER 212.5 (+3.7), 3. BKN-IND OVER 228 (+3.6)

    Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-LAL UNDER 236 (-5.2), 2. NYK-SAC UNDER 219 (-2.0), 3. MIN-UTA UNDER 224.5 (-1.5)

    Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

    (531) BROOKLYN at (532) INDIANA
    * Underdogs are 12-1-1 ATS in the last 14 of the BRK-IND series
    System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS

    (527) CHARLOTTE at (528) PHILADELPHIA
    * The last three games of the CHA-PHI series in Philadelphia went Over the total
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total

    (525) CLEVELAND at (526) HOUSTON
    * CLEVELAND is on a 7-1 ATS run versus Houston
    System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

    (537) GOLDEN STATE at (538) LA LAKERS
    * Home teams are on an 11-3 ATS surge in the GSW-LAL series
    System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS

    (539) MINNESOTA at (540) UTAH
    * MINNESOTA has won the last seven ATS at Utah
    System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

    (541) NEW YORK at (542) SACRAMENTO
    * Home teams are on a 5-1 ATS run in the NYK-SAC series
    System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

    (533) OKLAHOMA CITY at (534) MEMPHIS
    * The last five games of the OKC-MEM series went Under the total
    System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

    (529) PORTLAND at (530) NEW ORLEANS
    * Under the total is on an 8-1 run in the POR-NOP series
    System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

    (535) WASHINGTON at (536) CHICAGO
    * The last five games of the WAS-CHI series went Under the total
    System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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