The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, March 20, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, BOSTON, GOLDEN STATE, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, SACRAMENTO, LA CLIPPERS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing a number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA, SACRAMENTO, OKLAHOMA CITY, GOLDEN STATE, LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO, PHOENIX

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON ML, SACRAMENTO ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, GOLDEN STATE ML, LA CLIPPERS ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-DET, SAC-TOR, UTA-OKC, MEM-GSW, LAC-POR, PHI-PHX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in a NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): IND-DET, SAC-TOR, UTA-OKC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in MIA-CLE (o/u at 203.5), PLAY OVER in MEM-GSW (o/u at 219), PLAY UNDER in LAC-POR (o/u at 217.5)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 173-116 SU and 170-111 ATS (60.5%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
3/20: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Utah
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs UTA)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 54-28 SU and 52-28-2 ATS (65%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last two seasons.
3/20: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Utah
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs UTA)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest were 34-15 SU and 33-14-2 ATS (70.2%) hosting teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
3/20: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Utah
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs UTA)

* Over the total was 100-67 (59.9%) over the last two seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
3/20: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-UTAH
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 232)

* Over the total was 48-34 (58.5%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
3/20: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-UTAH
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 232)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these angles will apply the rest of the way.

BOSTON is 9-3 SU but 3-8-1 ATS (27.3%) at home this season versus teams with current Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 100 or higher.
3/20 vs. Milwaukee
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-10.5 vs MIL)

INDIANA has been at its best against divisional opponents so far this season, going 10-4 SU and ATS (71.4%).
3/20 at Detroit
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-9.5 at DET)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* MIAMI is 26-22 SU and 30-16 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
3/20: MIAMI at Cleveland
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+2 at CLE)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 118-35 SU and 97-56 ATS (63.4%) run.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (*only if they fit this line range above, -10.5 currently)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 148-29 SU but just 73-101-3 ATS (42%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE SACRAMENTO (-11 at TOR), FADE PHOENIX (if they become double-digit favorite vs. PHI)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 78-61 (56.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 146-116 (55.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 184-138 (57.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in MIL-BOS (o/u at 224), PLAY OVER in SAC-TOR (o/u at 232.5), PLAY UNDER in UTA-OKC (o/u at 232), PLAY OVER in MEM-GSW (o/u at 219), PLAY OVER in LAC-POR (o/u at 217.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 130-79 SU but 91-114-4 ATS (44.4%) in the follow-up contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons. Included among this is a 77-101 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match: FADE PHOENIX (-9.5 vs PHI)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 86-50 SU and 80-54-2 ATS (59.7%) in that follow-up try over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-9.5 at DET)

Unusual shooting performance systems

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 209-233 SU and 196-242-4 ATS (44.7%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (+10.5 at BOS)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 222-220 SU and 199-231-10 ATS (46.3%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (+10.5 at BOS), FADE BOSTON (-10.5 vs MIL)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 118-144 SU and 117-139-6 ATS (45.7%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (+10.5 at BOS)

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 140-53 SU & 108-83-2 ATS (56.5%) over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX (-9.5 vs PHI)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 83-15 SU but 41-55-3 ATS (42.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-10.5 vs MIL)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of  seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 175-218 ATS (44.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 23-100 SU and 51-69-3 ATS (42.5%).
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (+11 vs SAC)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +10.5 (+2.2), 2. PORTLAND +12 (+1.2), 3. TORONTO +11 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -11 (+2.8), 2. PHOENIX -9 (+2.0), 3. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +15.5 (+2.9), 2. MIAMI +2.5 (+2.2), 3. MEMPHIS +11 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-CLE OVER 203.5 (+1.8), 2. LAC-POR OVER 217.5 (+1.3), 3. SAC-TOR OVER 233.5 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-BOS UNDER 224 (-2.1), 2. MEM-GSW UNDER 219 (-1.7), 3. UTA-OKC UNDER 232 (-0.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +11 (+2.3), 2. MILWAUKEE +10.5 (+2.0), 3. MIAMI +2.5 (+1.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -11 (+3.9), 2. PHOENIX -9 (+2.0), 3. INDIANA -9.5 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-OKC OVER 232 (+3.4), 2. MEM-GSW OVER 219 (+2.7), 3. LAC-POR OVER 217.5 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-BOS UNDER 224 (-2.9), 2. IND-DET UNDER 235 (-1.9), 3. MIA-CLE UNDER 203.5 (-1.2)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(511) INDIANA at (512) DETROIT
* INDIANA has won the last three ATS versus Detroit
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

(513) MIAMI at (514) CLEVELAND
* Favorites are on a 15-5 ATS run in the MIA-CLE series
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

(515) MILWAUKEE at (516) BOSTON
* Road teams are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 of the MIL-BOS series
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS

(517) SACRAMENTO at (518) TORONTO
* Over the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the SAC-TOR series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(519) UTAH at (520) OKLAHOMA CITY
* OKLAHOMA CITY has won the last five ATS hosting Utah
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

(521) MEMPHIS at (522) GOLDEN STATE
* The last four games of MEM-GSW series at Golden State went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(523) LA CLIPPERS at (524) PORTLAND
* Road teams are on a 5-1 ATS run in the LAC-POR series
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

(525) PHILADELPHIA at (526) PHOENIX
* PHOENIX has won the last four ATS hosting Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS

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