The following NBA betting trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, February 15, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

NBA Betting Trend Strategies Using DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted NBA betting trend features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 AM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

Top NBA Resources:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wager. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wagers, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 27-19 ATS record (58.7%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 46 games was only 3.6% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): MEMPHIS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, GOLDEN STATE, MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on the handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until somethings changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER): MIL-MEM

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): MIN-POR

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 49-42 SU and 48-42-1 ATS (53.3%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
2/15: MEMPHIS vs. Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+11.5 vs MIL)

* Under the total was 89-54 (62.2%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
2/15: Under the total in MEMPHIS-MILWAUKEE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 223)

* Under the total was 47-43 (52.2%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
2/15: Under the total in MILWAUKEE-MEMPHIS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 223)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* MEMPHIS is 26-12 SU and 23-14 ATS at home in the 4th in 6 Days scenario over the last two seasons
2/15: MEMPHIS vs. Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+11.5 vs MIL)

* MINNESOTA is 17-6 Over the total on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
2/15: Over the total in PORTLAND-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 215)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 138-28 SU but just 66-98-2 ATS (40.2%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE (-11.5 at MEM)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 74-58 (56.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 140-111 (55.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 175-128 (57.8%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in MIL-MEM (o/u at 223)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 126-77 SU but 87-112-4 ATS (43.7%) in the follow-up contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons. Included among this is a 73-99 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match: FADE UTAH (*only if they become a favorite vs GSW tonight*)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 257-203 (55.9%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in MIL-MEM (o/u at 223)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 4.8% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (148-166 ATS, 47.1%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (201-186 ATS, 51.9%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING PORTLAND (+9 vs MIN)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +11.5 (+2.3), 2. PORTLAND +9 (+1.9), 3. UTAH +1.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MEMPHIS +11.5 (+2.2)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -9 (+0.5), 2. GOLDEN STATE -1.5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-POR OVER 215 (+1.7), 2. GSW-UTA OVER 239.5 (+1.4)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +11.5 (+1.5), 2. UTAH +1.5 (+0.3)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MINNESOTA -9 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-MEM OVER 223 (+4.6), 2. GSW-UTA OVER 239.5 (+2.1)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MIN-POR UNDER 215 (-2.9)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(539) MILWAUKEE at (540) MEMPHIS
* MEMPHIS is on a 6-1 ATS run versus Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

(543) GOLDEN STATE at (544) UTAH
* GOLDEN STATE is on an 8-1-1 ATS run in the last 10 of the series
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS

(541) MINNESOTA at (542) PORTLAND
* Home teams are 16-3-2 ATS in the MIN-POR series since 2018
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND ATS

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