The following NBA betting trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, February 26, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 27-19 ATS record (58.7%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 46 games was only 3.6% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): MEMPHIS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing a number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA, MEMPHIS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS, SACRAMENTO

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY): NEW YORK ML

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Umder the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOR-IND, BKN-MEM, MIA-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a “super” majority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in a NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): TOR-IND, BKN-MEM

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): BKN-MEM

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Match: PLAY OVER instead in TOR-IND

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 117-83 SU BUT 85-113-1 ATS (42.9%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
2/26: Fade MEMPHIS vs. Brooklyn
System Match: FADE MEMPHIS (+2 vs BKN)

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 67-39 SU and 64-39-3 ATS (62.1%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
2/26: MEMPHIS vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+2 vs BKN)

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 65-40 SU but 44-60-1 ATS (42.3%) hosting teams playing a 4thStraightRoad game over the last three seasons.
2/26: Fade MEMPHIS vs. Brooklyn
System Match: FADE MEMPHIS (+2 vs BKN)

* Over the total was 21-12 (63.6%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing on 2 Days Rest.
2/26: Over the total in SACRAMENTO-MIAMI
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

NEW YORK has dominated its weakest competition this season, going 18-1 SU and 15-4 ATS (78.9%) versus teams with current Steve Makinen Power Ratings of less than 95.
This is what good teams should do, however, if you consider that the Knicks are 33-22 overall, it means that they are just 15-21 against the rest of the league. That might not bode well for a postseason run. It should still payoff for bettors in these remaining games against the league’s worst:
2/26 vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-11 vs DET)

TORONTO has gone Over the total in its last 12 schedule spots when playing consecutive road games.
If you haven’t picked up on it, I love trends when the average scores blow away the average posted lines/totals. This one top all of them I’ve shared so far. The Raptors have clearly suffered from some jet lag, as their defensive effort in the second (or more) of consecutive road games has been atrocious. During this 12-0 Over streak, they are allowing 129.3 PPG while scoring 121.5. Yes, that is accurate. These games are producing an almost All-Star game worthy 250.8 PPG. The average totals have been 232.4, so bettors have enjoyed more than an 18 PPG cushion. Toronto has lost the last six games of this type, yielding 135.2 PPG. It won’t get easier for them as fatigue gets worse later in the season:
2/26 at Indiana
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in TOR-IND (o/u at 244.5)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* INDIANA is 22-14 SU and 24-10-1 ATS in the 3rdStraightHome scenario game over the last three seasons
2/26: INDIANA vs. Toronto
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-6 vs TOR)

* MIAMI is 24-20 SU and 27-15 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
2/26: MIAMI at Sacramento
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+6.5 at SAC)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 83-52 SU and 81-51-3 ATS (61.4%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY BROOKLYN (-2 at MEM)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 75-58 (56.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 143-112 (56.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 175-129 (57.6%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in DET-NYK (o/u at 223.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

EXTREME SCORING SYSTEMS

Favorites flush low scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 119-42 SU and 99-60-2 ATS (62.3%) in their last 161 tries.
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (-2 at MEM)

QUALITY OF WINS/LOSSES COULD MATTER

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for the hosts.
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 236-181 SU but 181-225-11 ATS (44.6%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 32-58 ATS.
System Match: FADE SACRAMENTO (-6.5 vs MIA)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in rare role of playing as road favorites, going 30-9 SU and 28-9-2 ATS (75.7%) in their last 39 tries.
System Matches: PLAY BROOKLYN (-2 at MEM)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 4.8% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (149-168 ATS, 47%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (204-190 ATS, 51.8%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER FADING BROOKLYN (-2 at MEM), CONSIDER PLAYING DETROIT (+11 at NYK)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +6 (+2.0), 2. DETROIT +11 (+1.9), 3. MIAMI +6.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +6 (+1.3), 2. MEMPHIS +2 (+0.9), 3. MIAMI +6.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: TOR-IND OVER 244.5 (+2.4)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-NYK UNDER 223.5 (-1.0), 2. MIA-SAC UNDER 225 (-0.9), 3. BKN-MEM UNDER 214.5 (-0.8)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +6 (+1.3), 2. DETROIT +11 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN -2 (+0.3), 2. SACRAMENTO -6.5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-MEM OVER 214.5 (+4.5), 2. TOR-IND OVER 244.5 (+3.7)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DET-NYK UNDER 223.5 (-1.0)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(577) BROOKLYN at (578) MEMPHIS
* MEMPHIS has won the last four ATS hosting Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

(579) MIAMI at (580) SACRAMENTO
* SACRAMENTO is on a 5-1 ATS run hosting Miami
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

(575) DETROIT at (576) NEW YORK
* Road teams have won the last four ATS in the series
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

(573) TORONTO at (574) INDIANA
* Underdogs have won the last four ATS in the TOR-IND series
System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS

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