The following are NBA betting trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, February 5, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, NEW ORLEANS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, GOLDEN STATE, LA CLIPPERS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing a number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, DALLAS, LA LAKERS, GOLDEN STATE, LA CLIPPERS, NEW ORLEANS

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a money line wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): GOLDEN STATE ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS ML, NEW ORLEANS ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with UNDER the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SAC-CLE, DAL-PHI, LAL-CHA, LAC-ATL, TOR-NOP

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a “super” majority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): DAL-PHI, TOR-NOP

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER instead in DAL-PHI, PLAY OVER instead in LAC-ATL

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 113-82 SU but 82-111-1 ATS (42.5%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
2/5: Fade NEW ORLEANS vs. Toronto
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-11.5 vs TOR)

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 47-38 SU but 33-52 ATS (38.8%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
2/5: Fade NEW ORLEANS vs. Toronto
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-11.5 vs TOR)

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 63-39 SU but 42-59-1 ATS (41.6%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
2/5: Fade NEW ORLEANS vs. Toronto
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-11.5 vs TOR)

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 58-22 SU and 49-28-3 ATS (63.6%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
2/5: ATLANTA vs. La Clippers
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (+3 vs LAC)

* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 21-33 SU but 30-23-1 ATS (56.6%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
2/5: LA CLIPPERS at Atlanta
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-3 at ATL)

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 25-22 SU and 28-19 ATS (59.6%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
2/5: CHARLOTTE vs. La Lakers
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+11.5 vs LAL)

* Home teams playing an 2 Days Rest were 29-20 SU but 23-25-1 ATS (47.9%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
2/5: FADE NEW ORLEANS vs. Toronto
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-11.5 vs TOR)

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home were 30-10 SU and 28-12 ATS (70%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
2/5: ATLANTA vs. La Clippers
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (+3 vs LAC)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 46-39 SU and 44-40-1 ATS (52.4%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
2/5: CHARLOTTE vs. La Lakers
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+11.5 vs LAL)

* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 14-11 SU and 15-10 ATS (60%) last season hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
2/5: CHARLOTTE vs. La Lakers
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+11.5 vs LAL)

* Over the total was 71-46 (60.7%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
2/5: Over the total in CHARLOTTE-LA LAKERS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 227.5)

* Over the total was 63-47 (57.3%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
2/5: Over the total in ATLANTA-LA CLIPPERS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 242)

* Under the total was 44-40 (52.4%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
2/5: Under the total in LA LAKERS-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 227.5)

* Over the total was 24-17 (58.5%) last season when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
2/5: Over the total in NEW ORLEANS-TORONTO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 230)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* ATLANTA is 18-34 SU and 15-36 ATS in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
2/5: Fade ATLANTA vs. La Clippers
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+3 vs LAC)

* GOLDEN STATE is 24-9 Over the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
2/5: Over the total in BROOKLYN-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 238.5)

* LA CLIPPERS is 16-5 Over the total in the 4th Straight Road game scenario over the last three seasons
2/5: Over the total in ATLANTA-LA CLIPPERS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 242)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 117-32 SU and 96-53 ATS (64.4%) run.
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (-4.5 vs SAC)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 129-27 SU but just 62-92-2 ATS (40.3%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE LA LAKERS (-11.5 at CHA), FADE NEW ORLEANS (-11.5 vs TOR)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 72-58 (55.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 134-107 (55.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 173-124 (58.2%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in LAL-CHA (o/u at 227.5), PLAY OVER in TOR-NOP (o/u at 230)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trends systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 223-231 SU and 195-247-12 ATS (44.1%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (+3 vs LAC), FADE GOLDEN STATE (+1.5 at BKN), FADE BROOKLYN (-1.5 vs GSW)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 207-205 SU, but 183-216-13 ATS (45.9%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE BROOKLYN (-1.5 vs GSW)

UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 129-47 SU and 98-76-2 ATS (56.3%).
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (*only if they become a favorite vs DAL*)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 162-203 ATS (44.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 20-93 SU and 47-63-3 ATS (42.7%).
System Matches: FADE CHARLOTTE (+11.5 vs LAL)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +11.5 (+1.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -4.5 (+1.8), 2. LA LAKERS -11.5 (+1.3), 3. LA CLIPPERS -3 (+0.8)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +11.5 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN -1.5 (+2.0), 2. DALLAS -1.5 (+1.8), 3. LA CLIPPERS -3 (+1.4)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-NOP OVER 230 (+3.8), 2. LAL-CHA OVER 227.5 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-CLE UNDER 235 (-3.2), 2. GSW-BKN UNDER 238.5 (-2.4), 3. LAC-ATL UNDER 242 (-1.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +11.5 (+2.8), 2. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (+2.3), 3. ATLANTA +3 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -11.5 (+2.3), 2. CLEVELAND -4.5 (+2.2), 3. BROOKLYN -1.5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-NOP OVER 230 (+6.7), 2. LAL-CHA OVER 227.5 (+4.2), 3. LAC-ATL OVER 242 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-BKN UNDER 238.5 (-4.1), 2. SAC-CLE UNDER 235 (-2.3)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(561) DALLAS at (562) PHILADELPHIA
* Favorites are on a 6-1 ATS run in the DAL-PHI series
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

(565) GOLDEN STATE at (566) BROOKLYN
* BROOKLYN is 5-1 ATS in the last six hosting Golden State
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS

(567) LA CLIPPERS at (568) ATLANTA
* Underdogs have swept last four ATS in the LAC-ATL series
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS

(563) LA LAKERS at (564) CHARLOTTE
* LA LAKERS are on a 10-game ATS winning streak at Charlotte
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS

(559) SACRAMENTO at (560) CLEVELAND
* SACRAMENTO is on a 10-2 ATS surge versus Cleveland
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

(569) TORONTO at (570) NEW ORLEANS
* NEW ORLEANS has won the last three ATS hosting Toronto
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR