Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, February 8, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals.
Top NBA Resources:
- NBA Betting Primer (Free Download)
- NBA Public Betting Percentages & Betting Splits
- NBA Odds
- NBA Injury Report Today
- Parlay Calculator
- NBA Prop Bet Analyzer
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, PORTLAND, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, CHICAGO, DENVER
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, SAN ANTONIO, DALLAS, MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO, PORTLAND
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY): ORLANDO ML
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GSW-IND, DAL-NYK, CLE-BKN, UTA-PHX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in a NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): GSW-IND, UTA-PHX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): CHI-MEM
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER instead in GSW-IND, PLAY OVER instead in UTA-PHX
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 58-23 SU and 49-29-3 ATS (62.8%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
2/8: BROOKLYN vs. Cleveland
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (+6 vs CLE)
* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 22-33 SU but 31-23-1 ATS (57.4%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
2/8: CLEVELAND at Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-6 at BKN)
* Home teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game were 42-18 SU and 34-25-1 ATS (57.6%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
2/8: BROOKLYN vs. Cleveland
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (+6 vs CLE)
* Over the total was 72-45 (61.5%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
2/8: Over the total in BROOKLYN-CLEVELAND
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225.5)
* Over the total was 64-48 (57.1%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
2/8: Over the total in BROOKLYN-CLEVELAND
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation NBA Betting Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* BROOKLYN is 23-12 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
2/8: Under the total in CLEVELAND-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 225.5)
* BROOKLYN was 16-9 Under the total at home in the 4th in 6 Days scenario last season
2/8: Under the total in CLEVELAND-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 225.5)
* CLEVELAND is 11-2 Under the total in the A2A b2b game scenario over the last three seasons
2/8: Under the total in BROOKLYN-CLEVELAND
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 225.5)
* GOLDEN STATE is 24-11 Over the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
2/8: OVER the total in INDIANA-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 249)
* INDIANA is 57-33 Over the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
2/8: Over the total in INDIANA-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 249)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 82-51 SU and 80-50-3 ATS (61.5%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY DETROIT (*only if they become +4.5 or less at POR*)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 132-28 SU but just 63-95-2 ATS (39.9%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE ORLANDO (-10.5 vs SAS)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 72-58 (55.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 138-107 (56.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 173-126 (57.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in SAS-ORL (o/u at 225)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.
QUALITY OF WINS/LOSSES CAN MATTER
Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 221-121 SU but just 142-189-11 ATS (42.9%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-6 vs GSW)
UNUSUAL SHOOTING PERFORMANCE SYSTEMS
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 197-217 SU and 183-228-3 ATS (44.5%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Matches: FADE MEMPHIS (+6 vs CHI), FADE DETROIT (+5.5 at POR)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 208-208 SU and 185-219-10 ATS (45.8%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Matches: FADE MEMPHIS (+6 vs CHI), FADE MINNESOTA (+1 at MIL)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 108-138 SU & 107-133-6 ATS (44.6%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (+1 at MIL)
UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 129-49 SU and 98-78-2 ATS (55.7%) over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO (-6 at MEM)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 4.7% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (144-163 ATS, 46.9%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (196-184 ATS, 51.6%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER FADING MEMPHIS (+6 vs CHI)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE +6 (+3.3), 2. DETROIT +6.5 (+2.8), 3. NEW YORK +3.5 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO -6 (+2.6), 2. CLEVELAND -6 (+1.5), 3. DENVER -3.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +6.5 (+3.1), 2. GOLDEN STATE +6 (+1.9), 3. SAN ANTONIO +10.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-ORL OVER 224.5 (+2.1), 2. MIN-MIL OVER 226.5 (+0.4), 3. DET-POR OVER 225 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-NYK UNDER 228.5 (-1.1), 2. UTA-PHX UNDER 243.5 (-0.7), 3. GSW-IND UNDER 249 (-0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE +6 (+4.3), 2. SAN ANTONIO +10.5 (+3.1), 3. DETROIT +6.5 (+2.7)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO -6 (+3.2), 2. CLEVELAND -6 (+2.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-ORL OVER 224.5 (+4.9), 2. DET-POR OVER 225 (+4.7), 3. MIN-MIL OVER 226.5 (+3.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-NYK UNDER 228.5 (-2.0), 2. CHI-MEM UNDER 216.5 (-1.8), 3. GSW-IND UNDER 249 (-1.1)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(525) CHICAGO at (526) MEMPHIS
* Favorites have won the last nine ATS in the CHI-MEM series
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
(521) CLEVELAND at (522) BROOKLYN
* BROOKLYN is 5-2 ATS in the last seven hosting Cleveland
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS
(519) DALLAS at (520) NEW YORK
* Underdogs are on a 7-2 ATS run in the DAL-NYK series
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS
(529) DENVER at (530) LA LAKERS
* Underdogs are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight of the DEN-LAL series but lost last time
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS
(531) DETROIT at (532) PORTLAND
* PORTLAND has won the last seven ATS vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND ATS
(515) GOLDEN STATE at (516) INDIANA
* Underdogs have won the last six ATS in the GSW-IND series
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS
(523) MINNESOTA at (524) MILWAUKEE
* Favorites are on a 14-4 ATS surge in MIN-MIL h2h series
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS
(517) SAN ANTONIO at (518) ORLANDO
* Favorites are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the SAN-ORL series
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS
(527) UTAH at (528) PHOENIX
* Underdogs are on an 11-4 ATS run in the UTA-PHO series
System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS
