The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, March 12, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this super majority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, HOUSTON, BOSTON, MINNESOTA, MILWAUKEE

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing a number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK, BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, BOSTON, MILWAUKEE

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK ML, SAN ANTONIO ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO ML, MINNESOTA ML

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-NYK, WSH-MEM, IND-OKC, BOS-UTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): IND-OKC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in PHI-NYK, PLAY OVER in MIN-LAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER instead in IND-OKC

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 121-84 SU but 88-115-1 ATS (43.3%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
3/12: Fade UTAH vs. Boston
System Match: FADE UTAH (+6.5 vs BOS)

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 53-38 SU but 38-53 ATS (41.8%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
3/12: Fade UTAH vs. Boston
System Match: FADE UTAH (+6.5 vs BOS)

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 68-41 SU but 46-62-1 ATS (43.4%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
3/12: Fade UTAH vs. Boston
System Match: FADE UTAH (+6.5 vs BOS)

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 38-21 SU but 24-34-1 ATS (41.4%) hosting teams playing on a 4th Road in 6 Days game over the last three seasons.
3/12: Fade UTAH vs. Boston
System Match: FADE UTAH (+6.5 vs BOS)

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 30-28 SU and 33-25 ATS (56.9%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
3/12: SAN ANTONIO vs. Houston
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+4 vs HOU)

* Home teams playing an 2 Days Rest were 31-21 SU but 25-26-1 ATS (49%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
3/12: Fade UTAH vs. Boston
System Match: FADE UTAH (+6.5 vs BOS)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 56-45 SU and 54-46-1 ATS (54%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game over the last two seasons.
3/12: SAN ANTONIO vs. Houston
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+4 vs HOU)

* Under the total was 92-60-1 (60.5%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
3/12: Under the total in LA CLIPPERS-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 215)

* Over the total was 77-51 (60.2%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
3/12: Over the total in SAN ANTONIO-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 222.5)

* Over the total was 26-21 (55.3%) last season when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
3/12: Over the total in UTAH-BOSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 230)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is obviously still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. At this point, with over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what has been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

The LA CLIPPERS boast a phenomenal 29-11 SU and 25-15 ATS (62.5%) record as a single-digit favorite this season.
3/12 vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-6.5 vs MIN)

MILWAUKEE is 9-2 Under the total (81.8%) on the road versus Western Conference foes so far this season.
3/12 at Sacramento
System Match: PLAY UNDER in MIL-SAC (o/u at 235.5)

MILWAUKEE has struggled in the ordinary One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 23-17 SU but 15-25 ATS (37.5%).
3/12 at Sacramento
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at SAC)

SAN ANTONIO has gone 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS (21.4%) this season against teams currently with mid-level Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 95-99.5.
3/12 vs. Houston
System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+4 vs HOU)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* MILWAUKEE is 4-16 SU and 2-17 ATS in the 4th Straight Road game scenario over the last three seasons
3/12: Fade MILWAUKEE at Sacramento
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at SAC)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-9 SU and 22-8 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
3/12: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Indiana
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 vs IND)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 118-33 SU and 97-54 ATS (64.2%) run.
System Matches: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-6.5 vs MIN)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on an 86-54 SU and 84-53-3 ATS (61.3%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (-2.5 at MEM)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 59-19 SU and 52-25-1 ATS (67.5%).
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (-2.5 at MEM)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 106-111 SU but 114-90-3 ATS (55.9%), including 83-47 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match: PLAY UTAH (+6.5 vs BOS)

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 123-44 SU and 102-63-2 ATS (61.8%) in their last 167 tries.
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-6 vs PHI)

Divisional upsets can create urgency

NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 85-49 SU and 79-53-2 ATS (59.8%) in that follow-up try over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-6 vs PHI)

Teams that win outright versus divisional rivals as double-digit underdogs have trended sharply Under the total in the next contest, going 57-34 (62.6%) in their last 91 tries.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in WSH-MEM (o/u at 220)

Unusual shooting performance systems
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 218-217 SU and 195-228-10 ATS (46.1%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 vs IND)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 147-120 SU and 154-106-7 ATS (59.2%) run.
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 vs IND)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 108-78 SU and 107-76-3 ATS (58.5%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (+6 at NYK)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +6.5 (+1.9), 2(tie). SAN ANTONIO +4 (+1.2) and SACRAMENTO +1.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -6.5 (+2.3), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -6.5 (+0.8), 3. NEW YORK -6 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +6.5 (+1.5), 2. MINNESOTA +6.5 (+0.8), 3. MEMPHIS +2.5 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -6.5 (+2.3), 2. HOUSTON -4 (+1.5), 3. NEW YORK -6 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-SAS OVER 222.5 (+2.4), 2(tie). IND-OKC OVER 240.5 (+0.4) and BOS-UTA OVER 230 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-LAC UNDER 215 (-4.7), 2. WSH-MEM UNDER 220 (-0.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +6.5 (+1.1), 2. SACRAMENTO +1.5 (+0.9), 3. SAN ANTONIO +4 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -6.5 (+1.9), 2. NEW YORK -6 (+1.3), 3. OKLAHOMA CITY -6.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-SAS OVER 222.5 (+2.9), 2. PHI-NYK OVER 208.5 (+0.6), 3. WSH-MEM OVER 220 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-LAC UNDER 215 (-4.6), 2. BOS-UTA UNDER 230 (-0.7), 3. MIL-SAC UNDER 235.5 (-0.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(545) PHILADELPHIA at (546) NEW YORK
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the PHI-NYK series in New York
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(547) WASHINGTON at (548) MEMPHIS
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the WAS-MEM series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(549) INDIANA at (550) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Under the total is 9-4 in the IND-OKC series since 2017
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(551) HOUSTON at (552) SAN ANTONIO
* Favorites have won the last five ATS in the HOU-SAN series
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

(553) BOSTON at (554) UTAH
* The last three games of the BOS-UTA series in Utah went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(555) MINNESOTA at (556) LA CLIPPERS
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the MIN-LAC series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(557) MILWAUKEE at (558) SACRAMENTO
* The last 22 games of the MIL-SAC series have gone Over the total!
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

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