The following are NBA betting trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, March 14, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

Top NBA Resources:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, HOUSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, NEW YORK

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing a number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, HOUSTON, LA CLIPPERS, NEW YORK

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY ML, NEW YORK ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with UNDER the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHX-BOS, WSH-HOU, PHI-MIL, DAL-OKC, NYK-POR

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in a NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): WSH-HOU, PHI-MIL, DAL-OKC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in LAC-CHI, PLAY UNDER in NYK-POR

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams playing an A2H b2b game were 30-25 SU and 30-25 ATS (54.5%) hosting teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
3/14: CHICAGO vs. La Clippers
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO (+6.5 vs LAC)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 56-47 SU & 55-47-1 ATS (53.9%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game over the last two seasons.
3/14: PORTLAND vs. New York
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND (+10.5 vs NYK)

* Teams playing a 4th Straight Home game are 21-7 SU and 17-11 ATS (60.7%) hosting teams playing in an H2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
3/14: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Dallas
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-11 vs DAL)

* Under the total was 92-61-1 (60.1%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
3/14: Under the total in PORTLAND-NEW YORK
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 205.5)

* Over the total was 37-27 (57.8%) last season when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
3/14: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-DALLAS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 235.5)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these angles will apply the rest of the way.

BOSTON is 8-3 SU but 2-8-1 ATS (20%) at home this season versus teams with current Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 100 or higher.
3/14 vs. Phoenix
System Match: FADE BOSTON ATS (-6 vs PHX)

CHICAGO is 19-8 Over the total (70.4%) versus teams from the Western Conference this season.
3/14 vs. LA Clippers
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 214)

MILWAUKEE has struggled in the ordinary One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 23-18 SU but 15-26 ATS (36.6%).
3/14 vs. Philadelphia
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-7.5 vs PHI)

NEW YORK has dominated its weakest competition this season, going 19-1 SU and 15-5 ATS (78.9%) versus teams with current Steve Makinen Power Ratings of less than 95.
3/14 at Portland
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-10.5 at POR)

WASHINGTON is 20-12 ATS (62.5%) as a road underdog this season but 9-20 ATS (31%) as a home underdog
3/14 at Houston
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+7.5 at HOU)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-10 SU and 22-9 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
3/14: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Dallas
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-11 vs DAL)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 146-29 SU but just 72-101-2 ATS (41.6%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE NEW YORK (-10.5 at POR)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 78-61 (56.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 145-115 (55.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 180-135 (57.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in DAL-OKC (o/u at 235.5), PLAY OVER in NYK-POR (o/u at 205.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 47-78 SU and 50-71-4 ATS (41.3%) slide, including 21-40-2 ATS in the last 63 games and 17-29 ATS when a pick ’em or favorite.
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (+6.5 vs LAC)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 223-125 SU but just 144-193-11 ATS (42.7%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-7.5 vs WSH)

Unusual shooting performance systems

NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 262-206 (56%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in PHI-MIL (o/u at 220)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 218-218 SU and 195-229-10 ATS (46%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-6 vs PHX)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX +5 (+2.3), 2. DALLAS +11 (+0.2), 3.

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -10.5 (+0.9), 2. MILWAUKEE -7.5 (+0.6), 3. HOUSTON -8 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +7.5 (+1.8), 2. WASHINGTON +8 (+1.5), 3. PHOENIX +5.5 (+0.2)

Today’s 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -10.5 (+2.1), 2. LA CLIPPERS -6 (+0.5), 3. OKLAHOMA CITY -11 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-CHI OVER 214.5 (+4.2), 2. PHO-BOS OVER 226 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WAS-HOU UNDER 227.5 (-0.9), 2. PHI-MIL UNDER 220 (-0.3), 3. NYK-POR UNDER 205 (-0.3)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +11 (+2.1), 2. PHOENIX +5.5 (+1.8), 3. PHILADELPHIA +7.5 (+1)

Today’s Top UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS -6 (+3.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-CHI OVER 214.5 (+4.6), 2. WSH-HOU OVER 227.5 (+4.2), 3. NYK-POR OVER 205 (+4)

Today’s 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHO-BOS UNDER 226 (-2.9), 2. DAL-OKC UNDER 235 (-1.3)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(509) DALLAS at (510) OKLAHOMA CITY
* The last six games of the DAL-OKC series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(505) LA CLIPPERS at (506) CHICAGO
* Favorites have won the last four ATS in the LAC-CHI series
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

(511) NEW YORK at (512) PORTLAND
* NEW YORK is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 versus Portland
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

(507) PHILADELPHIA at (508) MILWAUKEE
* Road teams are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the PHI-MIL series
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

(501) PHOENIX at (502) BOSTON
* Under the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the PHO-BOS series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(503) WASHINGTON at (504) HOUSTON
* The last four games of the WAS-HOU series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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