The following is a collection of NBA betting trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, January 27, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits data

One of the most touted NBA betting trends features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, NEW YORK, DENVER, BROOKLYN, BOSTON, MILWAUKEE, GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, MINNESOTA, SACRAMENTO

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, HOUSTON, UTAH, BOSTON, MILWAUKEE

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on the handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.}
System Matches (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): LA LAKERS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH ML, MINNESOTA ML

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much”, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with UNDER the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-DET, MIA-NYK, UTA-CHA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): WSH-DET, UTA-CHA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): MIA-NYK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER INSTEAD in WSH-DET, PLAY UNDER INSTEAD in LAL-GSW, PLAY UNDER INSTEAD in SAC-DAL

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 54-22 SU and 46-27-3 ATS (63%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
1/27: BROOKLYN vs. Houston
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (-4.5 vs HOU)

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 22-21 SU and 25-18 ATS (58.1%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
1/27: CHARLOTTE vs. Utah
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+10 vs UTA)

1/27: SAN ANTONIO vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+10.5 vs MIN)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 42-37 SU and 41-37-1 ATS (52.6%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
1/27: CHARLOTTE vs. Utah
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+10 vs UTA)

1/27: SAN ANTONIO vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+10.5 vs MIN)

* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 14-10 SU and 15-9 ATS (62.5%) last season hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
1/27: CHARLOTTE vs. Utah
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+10 vs UTA)

* Under the total was 81-51 (61.4%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
1/27: Under the total in GOLDEN STATE-LA LAKERS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 243)

1/27: Under the total in SAN ANTONIO-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 227)

* Over the total was 69-44 (61.1%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight  Road game.
1/27: Over the total in CHARLOTTE-UTAH
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 235)

1/27: Over the total in SAN ANTONIO-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 227)

* Under the total was 41-37 (52.6%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/27: Under the total in UTAH-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 235)

1/27: Under the total in MINNESOTA-SAN ANTONIO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 227)

* Under the total is 15-8 (65.2%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
1/27: Under the total in MILWAUKEE-NEW ORLEANS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 241)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* BROOKLYN is 22-10 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
1/27: UNDER the total in HOUSTON-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 220)

* GOLDEN STATE is 41-15 SU and 33-20 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last three seasons
1/27: GOLDEN STATE vs. La Lakers
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-1.5 vs LAL)

* HOUSTON is 31-10 Over the total on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
1/27: Over the total in BROOKLYN-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 220)

* MINNESOTA is 17-5 Over the total on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
1/27: Over the total in SAN ANTONIO-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 227)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following NBA betting trends information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 115-31 SU and 96-50 ATS (65.8%) run.
System Matches: PLAY DENVER (-5.5 vs PHI), PLAY BOSTON (-7.5 vs LAC)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 80-51 SU and 78-50-3 ATS (60.9%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+3 at DET)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 124-25 SU but just 58-89-2 ATS (39.5%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: PLAY UTAH (-10 at CHA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 71-56 (55.9%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 129-105 (55.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 173-119 (59.2%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in UTA-CHA (o/u at 235), PLAY OVER in MIN-SAS (o/u at 227)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 217-221 SU and 190-238-10 ATS (44.4%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-7.5 vs. LAC), SACRAMENTO (-3 at DAL), LA LAKERS (+1.5 at GSW), HOUSTON (+4.5 at BKN), DALLAS (+3 vs. SAC)

NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 249-197 (55.8%) since 2021. (PHI 1/27)
System Match: PLAY UNDER in PHI-DEN (o/u at 228)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 190-212 SU and 174-226-2 ATS (43.5%) in the next game.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-7.5 vs LAC), FADE GOLDEN STATE (-1.5 vs LAL), FADE DALLAS (+3 vs SAC), FADE LA LAKERS (+1.5 at GSW)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 204-202 SU, but 181-213-12 ATS (45.9%) the next game over the last three seasons. (BOS 1/27) (SAC 1/27) (LAL 1/27)
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-7.5 vs LAC), FADE SACRAMENTO (-3 at DAL), FADE LA LAKERS (+1.5 at GSW)

UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebound well when favored the next time out, going 128-45 SU and 97-74-2 ATS (56.7%).
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-1.5 vs LAL)

BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS

NBA teams that beat a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have gone just 69-67 SU and 60-71-5 ATS (45.8%) in their next game.
System Match: FADE NEW YORK (-4.5 vs MIA)

NBA teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next game, going 75-56 SU and 74-57 ATS (56.5%).
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-5.5 vs PHI)

NBA Streak Systems

The following NBA betting trends detail nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 24-47 SU but 39-32 ATS (54.9%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches:P LAY MIAMI (+4.5 at NYK)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 5.8% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (140-161 ATS, 46.5%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (195-178 ATS, 52.3%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON (+3.5 at DET), CONSIDER PLAYING MIAMI (+4.5 at NYK)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 52-46 SU and 56-40-3 ATS (58.3%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+3.5 at DET)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS +7.5 (+1.6), 2. HOUSTON +4.5 (+1.5), 3(tie). LA LAKERS +1.5 (+1.2) and CHARLOTTE +10 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE -5.5 (+1.5), 2. NEW YORK -4.5 (+1.3), 3. DETROIT -3 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +3 (+1.4), 2. PHILADELPHIA +5.5 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -3 (+2.4), 2. MINNESOTA -10.5 (+1.0), 3. BOSTON -7.5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-SAS OVER 227 (+2.0), 2. PHI-DEN OVER 228 (+1.3), 3. SAC-DAL OVER 243 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-NYK UNDER 218 (-1.1), 2. NOP-MIL UNDER 241 (-1.0), 3. WSH-DET UNDER 240 (-0.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS +7.5 (+2.5), 2. CHARLOTTE +10 (+1.9), 3(tie). SAN ANTONIO +10.5 (+1.3) and HOUSTON +4.5 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE -5.5 (+4.9), 2. NEW YORK -4.5 (+0.8), 3. DENVER -5.5 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-BOS OVER 232.5 (+3.9), 2. MIN-SAS OVER 227 (+2.2), 3. HOU-BKN OVER 220 (+1.9)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-MIL UNDER 241 (-1.1), 2. MIA-NYK UNDER 218 (-0.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(507) HOUSTON at (508) BROOKLYN
* HOUSTON has won the last three ATS at Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

(511) LA CLIPPERS at (512) BOSTON
* Underdogs are 11-1-1 ATS in the last 13 of the LAC-BOS series but lost last time
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

(517) LA LAKERS at (518) GOLDEN STATE
* Favorites have won the last five ATS in the LAL-GSW series
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS

(503) MIAMI at (504) NEW YORK
* Under the total is 5-2-1 in the last eight of the MIA-NYK series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(515) MINNESOTA at (516) SAN ANTONIO
* Underdogs are on a 9-4 ATS run in the MIN-SAN series
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS

(513) NEW ORLEANS at (514) MILWAUKEE
* Over the total is 17-3 in the NOP-MIL series since 2014
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(505) PHILADELPHIA at (506) DENVER
* PHILADELPHIA is 12-2 ATS at Denver since 2008
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

(519) SACRAMENTO at (520) DALLAS
* SACRAMENTO is 13-3 ATS at Dallas since 2016
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

(509) UTAH at (510) CHARLOTTE
* UTAH is on an 8-3 ATS surge versus Charlotte

System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS

(501) WASHINGTON at (502) DETROIT
* WASHINGTON is on a 10-5-1 ATS surge versus Detroit
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS

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