As many of you know, here at South Point, we always deal NFL sides at -110. We never manipulate the juice, going to -120, EVEN, etc. so we often are faced with the dance between the key numbers of 2.5 and 3 on a game. One group of opinions likes and lays the -2.5, another group of opinions immediately takes the %plussign% 3. There are two games on this week’s card that have me going back and forth like I’m watching a tennis match. This may be an idea for another VSiN T-shirt or some sort of bookmaker’s “dance” move. I don’t know. Part of the job, I guess . . . and truly probably my preferred type of dancing.
Here are the Week 4 games presented in official Nevada rotation order.
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New Orleans Vikings (-3, 41.5) vs. New Orleans Saints (London, England)
We have been all over the place in this game. We opened 3 and they took it. Wait a minute. Honestly, I can’t even keep track: 2.5, 3, 2.5, 3, back and forth, back and forth. The dance, right? Does that help anybody envision a T-shirt idea? Really, I liked the higher number better because of the way Jameis Winston has looked. As far as an adjustment, I think a healthy Andy Dalton is about the same as a banged-up Winston. We did have some movement on the total with the news of the injury. We opened at 44, it dropped to 43.5, then we went to 42, and they bet Under that, too. Now it’s at 41.5.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 43)
We opened this 3 and they laid the 3. We are now at 3.5. I do see a lot of 4’s out there but we haven’t gone there yet. I actually have more Tennessee money at the 3.5 even though there are 4’s available elsewhere. No movement here on the total.
Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-3, 39.5)
We opened 3 and they laid me the 3. We went to 3.5 and they took back the 3.5 and now they’re even starting to take the 3. I do see some spots that have gone to 3 with juice on the dog. Of course, we don’t do that, but I certainly don’t have enough to go to 2.5. No movement on the total here either.
Buffalo Bills (-3, 51) at Baltimore Ravens
We opened this game 3.5 and they took it for a strong bet, so we’re down to 3. The public is laying back the 3, so there is a chance we get back to 3.5 but not yet. The sharps are no longer involved at 3. As far as the total, I didn’t use it on our parlay cards because I was afraid of the weather that is expected. We did open at 52.5. They bet me Under 52.5, they bet me Under 51.5, and I’m down to 51.
Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5, 45) at Houston Texans
We opened Chargers -6. They took the 6 and I went to 5. They laid back the 5 and now I’m back at 5.5. Pretty even action. The public is on the favorite, but the sharp money took the 6. They’re not interested in anything less than 6. On this total, we opened 44. They bet me Over 44 and they bet me Over 45. They bet me back Under 45.5 and we’re back to 45.
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-4, 48)
Lotta play here. We opened 6.5 and they walked me all the way down. They took 6.5, they took 6. After they took 6, I went to 5, they took that, then they took the 4.5, and I’m down to 4. Lotta money on the dog here, but the ticket count is still about 2.5 to 1 in favor of the Lions. We opened the total 50. They bet me Under 50, Under 49.5 down to 48.5, and I’m at 48.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 41.5)
Opened this one 3.5 and the first bet came in at %plussign% 3.5. I went to 3 and they laid back the 3 with a vengeance. Sharps and the public are on the Steelers -3, and right now, the wise guys are not coming back taking the 3.5 at all. I opened the total 41.5. They bet me Under 41.5, Under 41 and I went to 40.5. They bet me back Over 40.5 and I’m back to 41.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 45.5)
I opened 6.5. I haven’t moved it, but a ton of action both ways. Really good action both ways. We may have weather here, too, so we opened the total 48. They bet me Under 48, bet me Under 47, and I went all the way down to 45.5. They are betting me Over the 45.5 but not enough to move it yet.
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 41.5)
We opened Dallas -3. Sharp guys laid the 3, we went to 3.5, and a different sharp outfit took the 3.5, so I’m back to 3. However, I think this game is going to go back to 3.5 eventually and I think that will be due in large part to the public. We opened the total 42.5, they bet me Under and I’m at 41.5.
Cleveland Browns (-1, 47.5) at Atlanta Falcons
We opened the Browns -2.5, but then with the Myles Garrett situation with the car accident, we went to 2. They took the 2 and after that I went down to 1. Some action here, but the movement is mostly on the news. We opened the total at 48. They bet me Over 48, they bet me Over 49. I went to 49.5 and then they started betting Under 49.5, Under 48.5, and Under 48. So now we are at 47.5.
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-1, 43.5)
We opened Panthers -1. They laid the 1, they laid the 1.5, but I went back to 1 with Christian McCaffrey being questionable. Quite a bit of movement on the total here. We opened 44, they bet me Under and I went to 43, they bet me Under that and I went to 42.5, and then they bet me back Over that, so I’m back to 43.5.
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5, 45.5)
Alright, tons of movement here. I opened the game -2.5. They laid it, it went to 3, they took it. I mean, here’s another one that we were back and forth so often, that I can’t even keep track. One group is laying the 2.5 and other sharp guys are taking the %plussign% 3. Choreograph that dance step once again where I look like I’m watching tennis. Ton of movement on the total too. I opened 43, they bet me Over 43, bet me Over 44, I went all the way to 45.5. They’re starting to bet me Under, but I’m still at 45.5.
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (-9.5, 40)
I opened the Packers -11. They took the 11, took the 10.5, and took the 10. Right now, this is one of my biggest decisions of the week. I have very little Packers money at -9.5. The public is on the favorite and the wise guys are on the dog. This total opened 41, they bet me Under, and I’m down to 40.
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (pick-’em, 45.5)
Really interesting game here. We opened the Chiefs 3. They took the 3, I went to 2 and they took the 2. They took the 1 and I’m down to pick-’em, still with a lot of money on Tampa Bay. This has been a one-way street. We opened the total 44, they bet me Over 44, bet me Over 45, and we’re at 45.5 now, writing pretty decent two-way business there.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-1.5, 42.5)
We opened the Niners -2. They took the 2. I went to 1.5. Not a really big decision here. Really good two-way business, even at the 1.5. We opened the total 44, they bet me Under 44, Under 43, and we’re at 42.5.
Chris Andrews is the sportsbook director at the South Point in Las Vegas and has been a Nevada bookmaker for 40 years.
