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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s NFL Divisional Round playoff games.

4:30 p.m. ET: Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5, 43.5)

The Texans (11-7) are the 4-seed and just crushed the Browns 45-14 in the Wild Card round, easily winning outright as 2-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Ravens (13-4) are the 1-seed and coming off the bye. Baltimore rested their starters in Week 18 and fell to the Steelers 17-10, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs.

This line opened with the Ravens listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. At times throughout the week, we’ve seen this line briefly dip to Ravens -9 and then rise back up to Ravens -9.5. We’ve never seen the line reach the key number of -10. Currently 67% of bets are taking the points with Houston. Bettors should pay close attention to today’s game-day movement. If we see this line rise to -10 that will indicate late movement breaking toward Baltimore. If we see it fall down to -9, that will be further evidence of pro money grabbing the points with Houston.

The Texans match several playoff betting systems. Playoff dogs are 4-2 ATS (67%) this postseason and 47-31 ATS (60%) since 2017. Playoff dogs who missed the postseason the previous year, like Houston, are 3-1 ATS (75%) this postseason and 37-18 ATS (67%) since 2017. Divisional round dogs +7 or more are 23-16 ATS (59%) since 2003. Fading divisional round favorites off a bye has gone 41-29 ATS (59%) since 2003. In addition, CJ Stroud is 6-2 ATS (75%) as a dog. Lamar Jackson is just 1-9 ATS (10%) as a favorite of 7-points or more since 2021.

Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from as high as 47 down to 43.5. This movement is notable because 80% of bets are taking the over, yet the total fell. One big factor to consider is the weather. The forecast calls for low 20s with 10-15 MPH winds. Playoff unders in which the total falls are 2-1 (67%) this postseason and 22-15 (59%) since 2017. Playoff unders when the wind blows 10 MPH or more are 11-6 (65%) since 2017. John Hussey, the lead ref, is 56% to the under historically.

Player Prop(s) to Consider: Stroud over 234.5 passing yards (-130). Stroud threw for 274 yards in the Wild Card round against the Browns. He has gone over this number in seven of his last nine games. Stroud threw for 242 yards agains the Ravens in Week 1.

Dalton Schultz Over 32.5 receiving yards (-120). Schultz caught 2 passes for 37 yards in the Wild Card round against the Browns. He has gone over this number in 4 of his last five games. Schultz finished second on the Texans in targets (88) in the regular season, trailing only Nico Collins (109).

8:15 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5, 50.5)

The Packers (10-8) are the 7-seed and just destroyed the Cowboys 48-32 in the Wild Card round, easily winning outright as 7.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, the 49ers (12-5) are the 1-seed and coming off a bye. San Francisco rested their starters in Week 18 and fell to the Rams 21-20, losing outright as 5.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with the 49ers listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. We’ve seen San Francisco briefly rise to -10 before falling back down to -9.5. Currently 62% of bets are taking the points with the Packers. Once again, game-day movement will be something to monitor as we are hovering around a key number. If the line rises to -10 prior to kickoff that will be a good sign for 49ers backers. If it falls down to -9 that will indicate late movement siding with the Packers.

The Packers match several profitable betting systems. Playoff dogs are 4-2 ATS (67%) this postseason and 47-31 ATS (60%) since 2017. Playoff dogs who missed the postseason the previous year, like Green Bay, are 3-1 ATS (75%) this postseason and 37-18 ATS (67%) since 2017. Divisional round dogs +7 or more are 23-16 ATS (59%) since 2017. Fading divisional round favorites off a bye has gone 41-29 ATS (59%) since 2003. Jordan Love is 9-5 ATS (64%) as a dog. Meanwhile, the 49ers are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.

The total hasn’t really budged off the opener of 50.5. Some books briefly rose to 51 and then came back down to 50.5. This lack of movement is notable as 67% of bets are sweating the over. High playoff totals of 47 or more are 1-1 this postseason but 27-14 (66%) since 2018.

Player Prop to Consider: George Kittle over 51.5 receiving yards (-125). Kittle has gone over this number in 8 of his last 10 games. Kittle finished second on the 49ers in targets (90) in the regular season, trailing only Brandon Aiyuk (105). Kittle is well rested having sat out Week 18. Jake Ferguson, the Dallas tight end, just posted 10 catches for 93 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Packers in the Wild Card round.

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