Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Monday Night Football 49ers-Vikings

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages using our VSiN Betting Splits.

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday Night Football…

 

8:15 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers (-7, 43) at Minnesota Vikings

The 49ers (5-1) just suffered their first loss of the season, falling to the Browns 19-17 and losing outright as 9.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Vikings (2-4) have won two of their last three games and just took down the Bears 19-13, covering as 3-point road favorites. 

This line opened with the 49ers listed as a 7.5-point road favorite. The public sees a bounce back or "get right" spot for San Francisco and currently 80% of bets are laying the points with the 49ers. However, despite this lopsided support we’ve seen the 49ers fall from -7.5 to -7. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Vikings, with pros grabbing the points with the home dog. In fact, most shops are even juiced up the Vikings +7 to -115 or -120, signaling further liability on Minnesota and a possible fall down to 6.5. 

The Vikings have excellent contrarian value, receiving only 20% of bets in a heavily bet primetime dog. Minnesota also has correlative betting value as dog in a low total game (43) with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover. Primetime dogs are 100-75 ATS (57%) since 2020. Kyle Shanahan is 13-16 ATS (45%) as a favorite of 6-points or more. 

Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 47 down to 43. Currently 38% of bets but 52% of money is taking the under, a sharp bet discrepancy. Unders are 63-41 (61%) this season. When the total fall at least a half point, the under is 42-23 (65%) this season and 211-154 (58%) since 2021. Primetime unders are 13-7 (65%) this season and 135-87 (61%) since 2019. 

The 49ers will be without starting WR Deebo Samuel and OL Trent Williams due to injury, while RB Christian McCaffrey is questionable with an oblique. 

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Josh Appelbaum is a Sports Betting Analyst at VSiN and has been working in the betting industry since 2011. He has been with VSiN since 2019, contributing data-driven articles to VSiN.com, hosting the Morning Bets and Market Insights Podcasts and appearing on VSiN and DraftKings programs such as Follow the Money, The Lombardi Line, Sharp Money and The Sweat. He is a contrarian bettor and also the author of The Everything Guide to Sports Betting.