Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday Night Football…
8:15 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers (-7, 43) at Minnesota Vikings
The 49ers (5-1) just suffered their first loss of the season, falling to the Browns 19-17 and losing outright as 9.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Vikings (2-4) have won two of their last three games and just took down the Bears 19-13, covering as 3-point road favorites.
This line opened with the 49ers listed as a 7.5-point road favorite. The public sees a bounce back or "get right" spot for San Francisco and currently 80% of bets are laying the points with the 49ers. However, despite this lopsided support we’ve seen the 49ers fall from -7.5 to -7. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Vikings, with pros grabbing the points with the home dog. In fact, most shops are even juiced up the Vikings +7 to -115 or -120, signaling further liability on Minnesota and a possible fall down to 6.5.
The Vikings have excellent contrarian value, receiving only 20% of bets in a heavily bet primetime dog. Minnesota also has correlative betting value as dog in a low total game (43) with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover. Primetime dogs are 100-75 ATS (57%) since 2020. Kyle Shanahan is 13-16 ATS (45%) as a favorite of 6-points or more.
Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 47 down to 43. Currently 38% of bets but 52% of money is taking the under, a sharp bet discrepancy. Unders are 63-41 (61%) this season. When the total fall at least a half point, the under is 42-23 (65%) this season and 211-154 (58%) since 2021. Primetime unders are 13-7 (65%) this season and 135-87 (61%) since 2019.
The 49ers will be without starting WR Deebo Samuel and OL Trent Williams due to injury, while RB Christian McCaffrey is questionable with an oblique.
