Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday Night Football.
8:15 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-10, 40)
The Bengals (5-6) have dropped three straight games and just fell to the Steelers 16-10, failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Jaguars (8-3) have won seven of their last eight games and just edged the Texans 24-21, covering as 1-point road favorites.
This line opened with the Jaguars listed as a 7-point home favorite. Currently 64% of bets and 63% of money is laying the points with Jacksonville. This lopsided Pro and Joe support has steamed the Jags up from -7 to -10. Favorites are 101-86 ATS (54%) this season. Home favorites who made the postseason the previous year are 36-24 ATS (60%). Home favorites -6.5 or more are 23-15 (61%). Double-digit favorites are 11-5 ATS (69%).
The total opened at 41 and fell as low as 38 throughout the week. It has since crept back up to 40. In other words, late move has bought back to the over. Currently 54% of bets and 85% of money is taking the over. Unders are 110-81 (58%) this season. Primetime unders are 29-11 (72%). When the total falls at least a half point off the opener the under is 69-42 (62%). When two teams who made the playoffs the previous year face off, the under is 24-13 (65%). The Both teams are 6-5 to the under this season. Cincinnati is one of the slowest teams in the NFL in terms of pace of play, ranking 28th overall.
Weather shouldn’t be an issue, as the forecast calls for low 60s, cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds. Scott Novak, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (59% ATS) and unders (55%).
One player prop to consider: Joe Mixon over 19.5 receiving yards (-120). He’s gone over this number is five of his last six games. He’s gone over this number in both games since Jake Browning replaced Joe Burrow. The Jaguars rank 28th in passing yards allowed per game (255).
