Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday Night Football…
8:15 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 47) at New York Giants
The Seahawks (2-1) have won two straight and just took down the Panthers 37-27, covering as 4.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Giants (1-2) just fell to the 49ers 30-12, failing to cover as 10.5-point road dogs.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em. Early in the week, it appeared as though smart money was backing the Giants as New York shifted to a 1.5-point home favorite. However, on Thursday we saw the line flip back to Seahawks -1.5 and it’s remained frozen on Seattle as a short favorite since that time. Essentially, late action, which is often the most important because that comes when limits are raised and the biggest bets come in, is showing "dog to favorite" movement on the Seahawks.
Currently 76% of bets and 69% of money is backing Seattle, signaling both a Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road team. This bet split and line move is eerily similar to last Thursday night’s matchup between the Lions and Packers, where the Lions were the popular bet as a short road favorite but also saw dog to favorite line movement. Detroit won and covered 34-20.
The Seahawks have a big edge on offense, averaging 350 yards per game compared to 277 for New York. Seattle has gotten much more out of the passing game as well, averaging 245 yards through the air compared to 189 for the Giants. The Seahawks rank 6th in points per game (29) while the Giants rank 30th (14).
Seattle also has the better run defense, allowing 79 rushing yards per game compared to 138 for New York. Seattle RBs Kenneth Walker II and Zach Charbonnet rushed for 143 last week against Carolina.
The Giants are dealing with injuries as well, with starting OT Andrew Thomas OUT and RB Saquon Barkley DOUBTFUL. Meanwhile, the Seahawks welcome a boost to their defense with S Jamal Adams returning from injury.
Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total from 45 to 47. Currently 42% of bets and 58% of money is taking the over, a notable sharp contrarian bet split. The forecast calls for clear skies, mid 60s and almost zero wind. Brad Rogers, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (53% ATS) and overs (59%).
