Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Monday Night Football

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s Monday Night Football doubleheader. 

 

7:15 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles (-5, 45) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Eagles (2-0) are undefeated and just took down the Vikings 34-28, pushing as 6-point home favorites. Similarly, the Buccaneers (2-0) are also undefeated and just brushed aside the Bears 27-17, easily covering as 2.5-point home favorites. 

This line opened with the Eagles listed as high as a 7-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with Philadelphia. However, despite receiving 75% of bets we’ve seen the Eagles fall from -7 to -5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Bucs, with pros grabbing the points with home dog Tampa Bay. The Bucs are contrarian in a heavily bet primetime game, receiving only 25% of bets. Dogs are 24-20 ATS (55%) this season. Conference dogs +6 or less are 15-12 ATS (56%) this season and 291-207 ATS (58%) since 2019. Tampa Bay has the edge on defense, allowing 332 yards per game compared to 392 for Philadelphia. The Bucs are giving up 278 yards in the air compared to 340 for the Eagles. 

Sharps have also leaned under, as the total has ticked down slightly from 45.5 to 45. The under is receiving 29% of bets but 45% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Unders that fall at least a half point are 18-13 (58%) this season and 187-144 (56%) since 2021. Adrian Hill, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (62%). The forecast calls for low 80s, 5 MPH winds and possibly some rain at Raymond James Stadium. 

 

8:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals (-2, 43.5)

The Rams (1-1) just fell to the 49ers 30-23 but managed to cover as 7.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Bengals (0-2) are winless and just fell to the Ravens 27-24, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. 

This line opened with Cincinnati listed as high as a 7-point home favorite. We’ve seen the Bengals get steamed down all the way from -7 to -2, thanks in large part to the questionable status of QB Joe Burrow, who is a game-time decision with a calf injury. Over the past 24-hours, we’ve seen the Bengals fall from -3 to -2, which leads bettors to believe Burrow may end up missing this game. If Burrow is out, Jake Browning is expected to start in his place. Currently 53% of bets and 54% of money is taking the points with the Rams. 

The Rams match several betting systems. Road dogs are 16-12 ATS (57%) this season and 441-353 ATS (56%) since 2018. Short road dogs +3 or less are 105-80 ATS (57%) since 2019. Primetime dogs are 95-68 ATS (58%) since 2020. Sean McVay is 2-0 ATS this season as a dog and 16-11 ATS (59%) in his career. Los Angeles is also in a prime teaser spot (+2 to +8), which passes through multiple key numbers.

We’ve also seen the total plummet from 46 to 43.5 despite 69% of bets taking the over. Primetime unders are 127-82 (61%) since 2019. John Hussey, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (56%). The forecast calls for low 70s, clear skies and mild 5 MPH winds.