Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Sunday December 3

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I’ll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, LIVE from the DraftKings studio in Boston.

You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s NFL Week 13 slate.

 

1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5, 39.5) at New England Patriots

The Chargers (4-7) have lost three straight games and just fell to the Ravens 20-10, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. Similarly, the Patriots (2-9) have lost four straight games and just lost to the Giants 10-7, losing outright as 4.5-point road favorites. This line opened with the Chargers listed as low as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public is hammering Los Angeles to the tune of 80% of bets. This lopsided support pushed the Chargers up from -3.5 to -6 early in the week. However, once we reached the key number of 6 that’s when we saw some sharp Patriots buyback hit the market, dropping the line back down to 5.5 or even 5 at some shops. This movement coincided with the expected news that Bailey Zappe is expected to start at quarterback for the Patriots over Mac Jones. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 41.5 to 39.5. The under is receiving 74% of bets and 87% of money, a notable Pro and Joe bet split. When the total falls at least a half point, the under is 67-41 (62%) this season. Both teams are 8-3 to the under this season. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, is 61% to the under historically. Weather could also play a factor here, as the forecast calls for mid 40s with 7-10 MPH winds and possible some rain.

 

4:25 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers (-3, 47.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

The 49ers (8-3) have won three straight games and just brushed aside the Seahawks 31-13, covering as 7-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Eagles (10-1) have won five straight games and just outlasted the Bills 37-34 in overtime, pushing as 3-point home favorites. This game opened at roughly a pick’em. The public is riding the red-hot Eagles at home. However, despite 60% taking Philadelphia, we’ve seen this line flip to 49ers -3. Essentially, we are seeing sharp "pick’em to favorite" line movement on San Francisco. The 49ers are receiving 40% of bets but 55% of money, further evidence of smart money backing the contrarian favorite and fading the trendy dog Eagles. San Francisco enjoys a notable "rest vs tired" advantage, as the 49ers last played last Thursday on Thanksgiving while the Eagles played an overtime game on Sunday. Those looking to back the sharp 49ers move but wary of laying points and pushing -3 could instead target San Francisco on the moneyline at -155. Pros have also leaned over, as the total has risen from 45.5 to 47.5. 

 

8:20 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs (-6, 42.5) at Green Bay Packers

The Chiefs (8-3) have rotated wins and losses of their last four games but just beat the Raiders 31-17, covering as 9-point road favorites. On the flip side, the Packers (5-6) have won three of their last four games and just upset the Lions 29-22, winning outright as 8.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 7-point road favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover for the Chiefs. However, despite receiving 77% of bets we’ve seen the Chiefs fall from -7 to -6. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Green Bay, with pros grabbing the points with the unpopular home dog. Primetime dogs are 109-83 ATS (57%) since 2020. Green Bay enjoys a notable "rest vs tired" advantage as the Packers played Thursday on Thanksgiving while the Chiefs played on Sunday. Brad Allen, the leaf ref, is 55% ATS to the home team historically. The total hasn’t budged off 42.5 despite 71% of bets going over. This signals a sharp under line freeze. The under is receiving 29% of bets but 42% of money, a sharp bet split. Primetime unders are 29-10 (74%) this season.