Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Sunday November 19

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I’ll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, LIVE from the DraftKings studio in Boston.

You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s NFL Week 11 slate.

 

1 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5, 39.5)

The Titans (3-6) have lost four of their last five games and just fell to the Buccaneers 20-6, failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Jaguars (6-3) just saw their five game winning streak come to an end, getting blown out by the 49ers 34-3 and failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. This line opened with Jacksonville listed as low as a 5.5-point home favorite. Currently 66% of bets and 72% of money is laying the points with the Jags. This lopsided support from both Pros and Joes has steamed the Jags up from -5.5 to -6.5. The Jags are also juiced up -6.5 at -115, signaling a possible rise up to the key number of -7. Teams off a blowout loss of 30-points or more are 139-111 ATS (56%) over the past two decades. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 32-18 ATS (64%) this season. Home favorites -6.5 or more are 20-8 ATS (71%) this season. The Jags are also in a teaser spot, as you can take them down from -6.5 to -0.5, which means they just have to win the game. Jacksonville has the edge on offense, averaging 22 PPG compared to 17 PPG for Tennessee. Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 40.5 to 39.5. 

 

4:25 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-2, 46.5)

The Seahawks (6-3) just edged the Commanders 29-26 but failed to cover as 6-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Rams (3-6) have lost three straight and just fell to the Packers 20-3, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win the Seahawks, who have a far better won-loss record. However, despite 63% of bets backing Seattle, we’ve seen this line completely flip to Rams -2. This signals sharp "dog to favorite" line movement on Los Angeles. The Rams are only receiving 37% of bets but 68% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Los Angeles also enjoys a rest advantage, as the Rams are coming off a bye while the Seahawks played on Sunday. Favorites off a bye are 172-133 ATS (56%) over the past two decades. Wiseguys have also leaned over, raising the total from 44.5 to 46.5. Currently 42% of bets but 58% of money is on the over, creating a sharp contrarian over opportunity. 

 

8:20 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 41)

The Vikings (6-4) have won five straight games and just took down the Saints 27-19, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. Similarly, the Broncos (4-5) have won three straight and just upset the Bills 24-22, winning outright as 7.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Denver listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to grab the points with Josh Dobbs and the Vikings. However, despite 62% of bets taking Minnesota the line hasn’t budged. Normally, if a team is getting two-thirds of bets you would see the line move in their favor. The lack of movement indicates a sharp line freeze on the Broncos, with books reluctant to drop the line and give out a better number to contrarian Broncos bettors. Denver is also juiced up -2.5 at -115, signaling a possible rise up to the key number of -3. Reading between the lines, it appears as though pros are fading the trendy dog and backing the home favorite. Denver is only receiving 38% of bets but 47% of money, giving the Broncos notable contrarian value in a primetime game as well as a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet split. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 42 to 41. Non-conference unders are 33-19 (63%) this season. Primetime unders are 25-8 (76%). 

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Josh Appelbaum is a Sports Betting Analyst at VSiN and has been working in the betting industry since 2011. He has been with VSiN since 2019, contributing data-driven articles to VSiN.com, hosting the Morning Bets and Market Insights Podcasts and appearing on VSiN and DraftKings programs such as Follow the Money, The Lombardi Line, Sharp Money and The Sweat. He is a contrarian bettor and also the author of The Everything Guide to Sports Betting.