Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Sunday October 22

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I’ll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, LIVE from the DraftKings studio in Boston. 

You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s NFL Week 7 slate…

 

1 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 43)

The Lions (5-1) have won four straight games and just beat the Buccaneers 20-6, covering as 3-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Ravens (4-2) are coming off a 24-16 win over the Titans in London, covering as 5-point neutral site favorites. This game opened with the Ravens listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The line quickly rose to Ravens at -3 and it’s stayed there for much of the week. A closer look at the juice shows Lions +3 at -115, signaling some liability on Detroit and a possible fall back down to 2.5. Short road dogs +3 or less are 12-5 ATS (71%) this season and 111-84 ATS (57%) since 2019. Dan Campbell is 5-1 ATS this season and 28-12 ATS (70%) in his career as head coach of the Lions. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 44.5 to 43. The under is receiving 39% of bets but 50% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet split. Unders are 56-37 (60%) this season. Non-conference unders are 18-9 (67%). The forecast calls for high 50s with 15 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 117-63 (65%) since 2021. 

 

1 p.m. ET: Washington Commanders (-3, 37.5) at New York Giants

The Commanders (3-3) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 24-16 win over the Falcons, winning outright as 2-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Giants (1-5) have lost four straight and just fell to the Bills 14-9 but managed to cover as 15.5-point road dogs. This line opened with the Commanders listed as low as a 1.5-point road favorite. Currently 67% of bets and 69% of money are laying the points with Washington. This Pro and Joe bet split has pushed the Commanders up from -1.5 to -3. Road favorites are 21-16 ATS (57%) this season. Road favorites are 26-13 (67%) straight up on the moneyline. Washington has a big edge on offense, averaging 337 yards per game compared to 295 for New York. The Giants are dead last in scoring, averaging only 12 PPG. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 41.5 to 37.5. The under is receiving 49% of bets but 59% of money, a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet split. When the total falls at least a half point the under is 37-19 (66%) this season and 206-150 (58%) since 2021. The forecast calls for 15-20 MPH, which makes this a windy under system match. John Hussey, the lead ref, is 56% to the under. Outdoor divisional unders are 90-60 (60%) since 2021. 

 

1 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills (-7.5, 40) at New England Patriots

The Bills (4-2) just edged the Giants 14-9 but failed to cover as 15.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Patriots (1-5) have lost three straight and just fell to the Raiders 21-17, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with the Bills listed as an 8.5-point road favorite. The public is hammering Buffalo. However, despite the Bills receiving 86% of bets we’ve seen Buffalo fall from -8.5 to -7.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Patriots, with pros buying low on New England plus the points at home. The Pats are the top contrarian play of the day, receiving only 16% of bets. Divisional dogs are 176-138 ATS (56%) since 2020. The Bills are now in a prime teaser spot as well (-7.5 to -1.5), passing through the top two key numbers of 3 and 7. Sharps have also steamed the under, dropping the total from 44 to 40. The under is receiving 48% of bets but 75% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet split. The forecast calls for mid 50s with 15 MPH winds, making this another "windy under" system match. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more in a divisional matchup the under is 20-6 (77%) since 2022. The Pats are 5-1 to the under this season. 

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Josh Appelbaum is a Sports Betting Analyst at VSiN and has been working in the betting industry since 2011. He has been with VSiN since 2019, contributing data-driven articles to VSiN.com, hosting the Morning Bets and Market Insights Podcasts and appearing on VSiN and DraftKings programs such as Follow the Money, The Lombardi Line, Sharp Money and The Sweat. He is a contrarian bettor and also the author of The Everything Guide to Sports Betting.