Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for Thursday Night Football: Seahawks-Cowboys

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday Night Football.

 

8:15 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-9, 47.5) 

The Seahawks (6-5) have lost three of their last four games and just got crushed by the 49ers 31-13, failing to cover as 7-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Cowboys (8-3) have won three straight games and just brushed aside the Commanders 45-10, easily covering as 13-point home favorites. 

This line opened with the Cowboys listed as a 7-point home favorite. Currently 79% of bets and 86% of money is laying the points with Dallas. This heavy combination of both public and sharp support has caused the Cowboys to move from -7 to -9. Some books are even up to -9.5. Favorites are 93-82 ATS (53%) this season. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 36-22 ATS (62%). Home favorites -6.5 or more are 23-13 ATS (64%).

Dallas holds a big edge offensively, averaging 31.5 PPG (1st in the NFL), while Seattle averages 20.8 PPG (18th). The Cowboys also have the better defense, allowing 16.8 PPG (4th), while the Seahawks allow 22.6 PPG (22nd). 

We’ve also seen the total rise from 45.5 to 47.5, indicating some respected over money. However, it’s difficult to stomach taking the over now as you’re getting the worst of the number. At this point, savvy value-driven bettors could instead consider targeting an inflated buy-low under 47.5. The under is receiving 48% of bets but 55% of money, a small sharp bet discrepancy.

Unders are 106-73 (59%) this season. When the total is 47 or more, the under is 20-13 (61%). If both teams made the playoffs the previous season, the under is 24-11 (69%). Most of all, primetime unders are an astounding 29-9 (76%). Seattle is one of the slowest teams in the NFL, ranking 28th in pace of play. 

One player prop to consider is Cowboys WR Michael Gallup over 15.5 receiving yards. It’s juiced up to -130, signaling over liability. The Seahawks give up 231 passing yards per game, which ranks 22nd in the NFL. Gallup has gone over 15.5 receiving yards in seven of his last nine games.