The road to Super Bowl LVIII has almost reached the end. With the Big Game coming up on February 11, we have two games this weekend and then the Pro Bowl bye week before the championship game. It is my belief that the spread and total for both games look pretty solid, so my NFL picks for this week are going to center on player props.
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Keep an eye on the NFL betting splits and also give the Vegas NFL odds a look to see where the lines might go as kickoff approaches. See the other NFL picks this week from our experts.
Here are my favorite plays for the Conference Championship Games:
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (-4, 44.5)
Check out Zach Cohen’s preview of Chiefs vs. Ravens.
For what it’s worth, if I had a lean here, it would be Ravens -4, as I greatly respect what Mike MacDonald does on defense. I also find Lamar Jackson’s mobility to be a big positive here and that is one of my props for this week.
Lamar Jackson Over 10.5 Rush Attempts (-120)
The Bills recognized how hard it was going to be throwing downfield against the Chiefs secondary. Josh Allen had 12 rushes for 72 yards. I would anticipate we see something similar for Jackson, whose rushing yards prop is 64.5 and juiced heavy on the Over at time of writing.
Kneeldowns are also rush attempts, so if the Ravens are ending the game, that’ll be a nice little bonus here. But, I do expect Jackson’s legs to be a huge part of the game-plan. As Ted Nguyen noted in his game preview for The Athletic ($), the Chiefs are the fifth-worst defensive team in EPA against designed QB runs and scrambles. Maybe Jackson flies over the yardage, too, but I’m guessing Todd Monken is very much aware of that stat and what seems like a blind spot for the Chiefs under Steve Spagnuolo.
Justice Hill Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Similarly, another noteworthy nugget from that Nguyen piece is that the Bills used James Cook a lot as a receiver against the Chiefs. He had 10 targets and nine catches for 104 yards over the two games. Hill had three times the targets and just shy of 2.5x the catches that Gus Edwards had, so I would think that Hill is used a lot more in this game given the matchup.
For most defenses, bending is preferred to breaking, so giving up yards in smaller chunks as opposed to big, explosive pass plays is tolerable. The Ravens have been pretty good about taking what the other team gives them and I think that’s the plan of attack here.
Justin Madubuike Over 0.25 Sacks (+124)
The Chiefs have some concerns on the interior of their offensive line in this game. Madubuike had 13 sacks during the regular season and lots of pressures. He has 35 QB Hits this season through 18 games. MacDonald is really good at moving guys around the formation and rushing the passer from a variety of looks and angles. With LG Joe Thuney unlikely to play (didn’t practice Thursday with a pectoral injury), I think Madubuike is able to make some plays in this one.
Isiah Pacheco Under 84.5 Rush + Rec Yards (-115)
I will grant that this one seems risky on the surface, given that the Ravens have allowed 4.6 yards per carry this season, but there are a few factors at play here. The first is the Thuney injury, which is a big deal with how the Chiefs like to run between the tackles. The second is that Pacheco hasn’t really been a viable pass-catcher over the course of the season. He was used a lot towards the end of the regular season, but has two targets in two playoff games.
Also, Pacheco has gone over this number in four of the last five games, but despite his recent success, the Chiefs were a bad rushing team most of the season. Even with the two good showings in the postseason, KC is 19th in Rush EPA for the season plus postseason and 27th in Rushing Success Rate. The Dolphins and Bills were both compromised in the front seven. Baltimore is not.
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 51.5)
I wrote the preview for this game, so you can get my thoughts on it here.
As far as a player prop to consider…
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 9.5 Rushing Attempts (-110)
Gibbs has 17 rushing attempts in the postseason and has fallen under this number twice, but the 49ers rank fifth in Dropback EPA against and seventh in Dropback Success Rate against at present, including last week’s game against the Packers. It is the rush defense that has struggled for the Niners. Gibbs went over this number in each of his last five regular season games and nine of his last 11 after missing a couple weeks in Weeks 5 and 6.
OC Ben Johnson has been scanning for weaknesses within the 49ers defense and my belief is that he’ll find more of them with defending the run as opposed to the pass. Also, it would make sense to try and keep San Francisco’s offense off the field as much as possible since the weather won’t compromise Brock Purdy the way it did last week. That means more rush attempts for Gibbs in my mind.
