NFL Week 6 saw favorites and underdogs split 7-7 ATS. Underdogs remain a profitable bet on the season, posting a 55-38 ATS record (59%). The best dog spot has been dogs %plussign%3.5 or more, which have gone an astounding 38-19 ATS (67%). The biggest story from Week 6 was unders going 10-4. Unders are now 57-37 (61%) on the season. Primetime unders are 13-6 (68%) and divisional unders are 22-10 (69%).
With these trends in mind, let's dive into five games receiving sharp action from respected bettors this week…
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Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 43.5)
The Colts (3-2-1) are riding a two-game win streak and just edged the Jaguars 34-27, covering as 1.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Titans (3-2) are coming off a bye having won three straight games. In their last game before the bye, Tennessee beat Washington 21-17, cashing as a road pick'em play. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the points with the Titans, steaming Tennessee up from -1.5 to -2.5. The line even touched 3 before some Colts 3 buyback brought it back down to 2.5. Favorites off a bye, like the Titans, are roughly 57% ATS over the past decade. Mike Vrabel is 4-0 ATS off a bye with the Titans. Tennessee is -145 on the moneyline.
Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 47.5)
The Falcons (3-3) have won three of their last four games and just beat the 49ers 28-14, winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs. Similarly, the Bengals (3-3) have also won three of their last four games and just held off the Saints 30-26, covering as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. We've seen the Bengals fall from -6.5 to -6, signaling some sharp money grabbing the points with the road dog Falcons. Road dogs are 31-21 ATS (60%) this season. Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season, like Atlanta, are 39-24 ATS (62%). The Falcons are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season, the only NFL team to cover every game. Burrow is just 2-4 ATS in his career as a favorite laying 6-points or more.
New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-1.5, 39.5)
The Jets (4-2) have won three straight games and just took down the Packers 27-10, easily winning outright as 7.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Broncos (2-4) have lost three straight games and just fell to the Chargers 19-16 but covered as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Denver listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Wiseguys jumped on New York plus the hook, dropping the line down from 3.5 to 3. But then word came out that Russell Wilson is dealing with a hamstring injury, causing further steam on the Jets which dropped New York down from 3 to 1.5. Dogs receiving "severe" line movement of 2-points or more are 8-3 ATS this season and 61% ATS since the start of the 2019 season. Short road dogs 3 or less are 57% ATS since 2019 as well. New York also has rest advantage as Denver is on a short week having played on the road Monday night. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 43.5 to 39.5. Denver is 5-1 to the under this season.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5, 51)
The Seahawks (3-3) have won two of their last three games and just upset the Cardinals 19-9, winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Chargers (4-2) have won three straight games and just beat the Broncos 19-16 but failed to cover as 3.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. Sharps pounced on the Seahawks plus the points, dropping Seattle down from 7.5 to 6.5. Road dogs that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 14-10 ATS (58%) this season and 57% ATS since the 2019 season. Seattle has a rest advantage as the Chargers played Monday Night and are now on a short week. Sharps have also steamed the under, dropping the total from 53 to 51. Unders that fall at least a half point are 32-20 (62%) this season.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 48.5) at San Francisco 49ers
The Chiefs (4-2) just fell to the Bills 24-20, failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. Similarly, the 49ers (3-3) just lost to the Falcons 28-14, losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with the Chiefs listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. Early wiseguy money laid the chalk with the Chiefs, driving Kansas City up from -1.5 to -3. But now that the line has reached the key number of 3, we're seeing respected buy-back buying low on the 49ers %plussign%3. San Francisco is only receiving 9% of bets, making the 49ers the top contrarian play of the week. Dogs that failed to cover the previous week, like the 49ers here, are 20-13 ATS (61%) this season. Jimmy Garoppolo is 16-4 ATS (80%) in his career as a dog.
