Through seven weeks of NFL betting, underdogs and unders have continued to be a smart bet. Dogs are 62-45 ATS (58%) this season, with "sweet spot" dogs %plussign%3.5 or more an incredible 44-22 ATS (67%). Meanwhile, unders are 64-44 (59%). Divisional unders are 25-10 (71%) and windy unders 10 MPH or more are 19-8 (70%).
With these trends in mind, let's examine five NFL Week 8 games receiving sharp action from respected bettors…
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Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5, 42)
The Panthers (2-5) just snapped a three-game losing streak with a massive 21-3 upset win over the Bucs, winning outright as 13-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Falcons (3-4) have lost two of their last three games and just fell to the Bengals 35-17, failing to cover as 6.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Atlanta listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Currently 60% of bets are laying the points with the Falcons. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen Atlanta fall from -6.5 to -4.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the road dog, with pros grabbing the points with the Panthers. Short road dogs %plussign%6 or less are 19-12 ATS (61%) this season. Divisional dogs are 20-15 ATS (57%). Dogs who missed the playoffs last season are 45-30 ATS (60%). Carolina also has value as a buy-low "bad" ATS team (2-5) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (6-1).
Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 40)
The Commanders (3-4) have won two straight games and just upset the Packers 23-21, winning outright as 4-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Colts (3-3-1) just had their two-game win streak snapped last week, losing to the Titans 19-10 and failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Indianapolis listed as a 6-point home favorite. Respected money has grabbed the points with the Commanders, dropping Washington from %plussign%6 to %plussign%3. The Commanders %plussign%3 is juiced up to -115, signaling a possible further drop down to 2.5. This sharp line move to Washington has also coincided with the Colts benching starting QB Matt Ryan in favor of backup Sam Ehlinger. Dogs with severe line moves of 2-points or more in their direction are 9-4 ATS (69%) this season and 47-31 ATS (60%) since 2019. We've also seen sharp money hit the under, dropping the total from 42.5 to 40. The under is getting 56% of bets but 77% of money, a notable sharp under bet discrepancy. The Colts are 6-1 to the under. The Commanders are 4-3 to the under.
New England Patriots (-1.5, 40.5) at New York Jets
The Patriots (3-4) just got embarrassed by the Bears 33-14 on Monday Night Football, losing outright as 8.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Jets (5-2) are riding a four-game win streak and just took down the Broncos 16-9, covering as 2-point road favorites. This line opened with New England listed as a short 1-point road favorite. Early money laid the points with the Patriots, ticking New England up to -2.5. That's when a flood of sharp buyback took the Jets plus the points, dropping the line back down to Patriots -1.5. Essentially all late respected money is backing the Jets as a home dog. The Jets have value as a divisional dog (57% ATS this season) and a dog who missed the playoffs last season (60%). New York also enjoys a rest vs tired advantage as the Patriots are on a short week having played on Monday night.
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 45)
The Giants (6-1) have won four straight games and just beat the Jags 23-17, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Seahawks (4-3) have won three of their last four games and just took down the Chargers 37-23, winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Seattle listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they're rushing to the window to grab the Giants plus the points. However, we've actually seen this line move further toward the Seahawks -1.5 to -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement backing the Seahawks, with pros fading the trendy dog Giants. Seattle is only receiving 36% of bets but 63% of money, a massive sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. The Seahawks are -150 on the moneyline. We've also seen sharp money hit the over, steaming the total up from 43 to 45.
Tennessee Titans (-2, 40.5) at Houston Texans
The Titans (4-2) are riding a four-game win streak and just edged the Colts 19-10, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Texans (1-4-1) just got crushed by the Raiders 38-20, failing to cover as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public can't believe this line is so short and they're hammering Tennessee minus the points. However, despite 89% of bets backing the Titans (the most public play of the week), we've seen the Titans fall from -3.5 to -2. They even reached -1.5 briefly. Essentially all respected money has taken the Texans plus the points. Dogs that didn't cover the previous week, like the Texans, are 23-16 ATS (59%) this season. Houston also has value as a divisional dog (57% ATS). Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 41 to 40.5. The under is receiving 40% of bets but 73% of money, a sharp under bet discrepancy. Divisional unders are 71% this season.
