2023-24 NFL Season Indianapolis Colts Review
This week kicked off our series of deep dives on NFL teams whose power rating increased the most throughout the 2023 NFL season. Today, we will examine the rise of the Indianapolis Colts, who rode the improbable quarterback play of both rookie Anthony Richardson and veteran Gardner Minshew to an impressive season and corresponding rise in TSI power rating.
The Colts finished the season with a winning record at 9-8, and also finished 9-8 ATS, so there wasn’t a major edge or trend in just blindly backing Minshew Mania, but they surpassed expectations, nonetheless. Going just 4-7 ATS as underdogs, Indianapolis seemed to primarily capitalize on the handful of games where they had a talent advantage, going 5-1 ATS as a favorite, which was best in the NFL.
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Above, you’ll see the Colts’ TSI rating as it fluctuated throughout the season. What started as a pretty low power rating quickly peaked after week 5 thanks to winning performances over Baltimore, Houston and Tennessee and virtually stayed within a point of NFL average the rest of the way.
Colts Offense
The primary driver of this expectations-surpassing season was that the offense took a giant leap, going from 17 points per game in 2022 to 23.3 points per game in 2023, including over 25 points per game at home. This opponent-adjusted offense output ascended the Colts’ offense into the top 10 in TSI offensive rating.
Some key stats that were indicative of Indianapolis’s success in 2023: they were 17th in offensive EPA per play after being 31st in 2022, 18th in EPA per dropback (pass play), which was also 31st in the NFL in 2022, and 16th in EPA per rush after being 30th in 2022.
Colts Defense
The defense went from bad to…not quite as bad? Giving up 24.4 points per game was actually an improvement from 2022, when they gave up over 25 points per game. However, despite the improvement, the Colts’ TSI defensive rating was bottom three in the league. They were 19th in EPA per play on defense (down from 13th in 2022) and 16th in EPA per dropback (up from 18th in 2022).
Their 2024 win total currently sits at 8.5, with the under being juiced to -135, which feels right to me.
I think this team is probably a regression candidate this year, as I think it might be difficult to replicate the offensive success of last year and the defense has continued to be subpar. I will put out official projections on win totals later this summer, but for now I think I’d be inclined to lean to the under, even with the extra juice.
