Market Insights: Latest movements on NFL draft


The NFL Draft is now just four days away. The first round kicks off on Thursday night from 8-11 p.m. ET. Rounds 2-3 are set for Friday from 7-11:30 p.m. ET. Rounds 4-7 are scheduled for Saturday from noon-7 p.m. ET. 

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Originally the Draft was supposed to be a mega-event in Las Vegas but will now be done via telecast from the ESPN headquarters in Bristol, Conn. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell will announce the picks from his home. The draft will also be a virtual three-day fundraiser to benefit coronavirus relief efforts.

The draft had been a growing wagering opportunity for bettors. But with the coronavirus decimating the sports betting schedule, it has become even more popular this year. According to PointsBet, the betting handle is expected to be 2.5 times higher than last year, putting it "on par with a typical Monday Night Football or Thursday Night Football matchup."

With only a few days left until the draft, limits are being raised on prop bets and we're seeing some big movement around the market. Here are the most notable changes over the last 24-48 hours.

Burrow One, Young Two

While many draft unknowns still exist, the first two picks seem to be set in stone. LSU star QB and Heisman winner Joe Burrow is -10000 to be the first overall pick at both DraftKings and FanDuel. Chase Young, the Ohio State edge rusher, is -2000 to go second overall at DK and -3000 at FD. The second pick was somewhat in question with Young a relatively modest -500 a week ago. But he is now considered a shoo-in at 2 overall. 

Tua Tanking

Tagovailoa, the star Alabama quarterback, was once considered a potential top pick. But injury concerns have dogged him and, as a result, his draft stock has been tanking. A month ago his draft over/under position was 2.5. Then it moved to 3.5 and then 4.5, with heavy juice to the over. Yesterday, it moved to 5.5 at DraftKings, with the over %plussign% 110 and under -134. 

Herbert Rising

While Tua has been tanking, Oregon QB Just Herbert has been rising. Roughly 24 hours ago, the head-to-head match prop on who will be drafted first listed Tua as a slight -138 favorite and Herbert a %plussign% 118 dog at FD. The odds have now flipped to Herbert -118, Tua -108. 

Jeffrey Okudah, the shutdown corner from Ohio State is a slight favorite be drafted No. 3 overall (%plussign% 100 at DK, %plussign% 110 at FD). But Herbert has moved from %plussign% 700 to %plussign% 500 to be drafted #3 at DK over the past 24 hours, leapfrogging Tua. Herbert is only %plussign% 330 to go 3rd overall at FD. His over/under draft position is 5.5. Herbert is also the new favorite for "2nd quarterback selected" (-125 at DK, Tua -110). 

Wills to Giants?

We've seen some massive changes when it comes to who the New York Giants will take with their first pick. The Giants are set to pick 4th overall, but rumors are swirling that they could trade down to acquire more picks. Roughly 48 hours ago, Iowa OL Tristan Wirfs was the favorite to be drafted first by the Giants. But out of nowhere Alabama OL Jedrick Wills has leapfrogged Wirfs as the new favorite. Wills is %plussign% 110 at FD and %plussign% 120 at DK. New Giants coach Joe Judge has a connection with Alabama having previously been a coach under Nick Saban. 

Swift Before Taylor

Using deductive reasoning is important when looking for draft value. By cross-referencing different props from different books, you can pull the curtain back and read between the lines. D'Andre Swift's over/under draft position is 26.5 (over -167) at DK. Jonathan Taylor's over/under is 37.5 (-125 over). FD is offering a match bet on which star RB will go first, with Swift -180 vs Taylor %plussign% 140. With Swift expected to go 11 picks higher, laying the -180 seems like a smart and affordably underpriced bet. 

McKinney First Safety

Alabama's Xavier McKinney is the consensus top safety in the draft. DK is hanging a match prop on who will be drafted first: McKinney or LSU's Grant Delpit. Over the past 24 hours, McKinney has moved from -215 to -305 while Delpit has fallen from %plussign% 275 to %plussign% 400. McKinney's over/under position is 24.5 while Delpit isn't listed. McKinney is -2000 to be a first-round pick while Delpit is -121. Reading the tea leaves, McKinney looks like the play.