Matt Youmans – NFL Week 10 Best Bets:
At the midway point of the NFL regular season, it’s a good time to ponder this question: How many teams are legitimate Super Bowl contenders?
During the Circa Friday Football Invitational show on VSiN, professional handicapper Jason Jarvis said 12 teams could win the championship. Las Vegas pro bettor Scott Pritchard disputed Jarvis’ number, saying, “Twelve teams is a stretch by a considerable amount. Six teams potentially could win it.”
I’ll say the truth is somewhere near the middle and go with 10 teams. There are six NFC contenders (49ers, Rams, Seahawks, Bears, Packers and Vikings) and four from the AFC (Bills, Bengals, Chiefs and Jaguars.)
I did not include the Vikings in that group until Tuesday, when Minnesota made a desperate trade with the Raiders to acquire quarterback Kirk Cousins. In the NFL, the future is now, and Cousins is the Vikings’ quarterback of the future for the remainder of this season and likely into next season. Cousins, who turned 38 in August, is not too old to get the job done. After nine starts with Las Vegas, Cousins ranks second in the league in touchdown passes (20) and fifth in passing yards (2,340). Minnesota ranks No. 1 in scoring defense (14.5 ppg), so it must be considered a legit contender now that its struggling offense is led by a veteran quarterback.
DraftKings is offering 22-1 Super Bowl odds on the Vikings for the believers out there. I don’t believe the Broncos (15-1) and Lions (19-1) are true contenders. Denver has a quarterback problem with Bo Nix. Detroit’s defense is not strong enough and coach Dan Campbell is not sharp enough.
My only Super Bowl futures wager is on the Chiefs at 15-1 odds from the preseason, and I’m considering adding the Vikings. Here are my best bets for NFL Week 10:
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)
Aaron Rodgers is probably playing better in his old age (42) than most expected, but he’s not exactly lighting it up. Rodgers has completed 60.8% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and six interceptions for a Steelers offense that ranks 17th in scoring (22.5 ppg). Rodgers was outstanding in a 30-27 victory over the Bengals in Week 3 when he passed for 292 yards and three touchdowns. Jaylen Warren rushed for 127 yards in that game against a Cincinnati defense that has been decent — and that’s an improvement after that defense was dreadful a year ago.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals can light it up. Burrow leads the league in touchdown passes (23) for the league’s No. 2 scoring offense (30 ppg). Pittsburgh ranks fourth in scoring defense (18 ppg), but it is much better against the run than the pass, so this is not an ideal matchup considering Burrow’s ability to hit receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins for explosive plays.
The scheduling spot is one reason to play the underdog here. The Steelers are off a bye while the Bengals are returning from a game in Spain. Teams off the bye are 10-4 ATS this season, and teams with a rest advantage are 32-13-1 ATS. It should be noted that teams with the rest advantage when favored are 26-1 straight up and 21-5-1 ATS, so the situation is not as strong since Pittsburgh is not the favorite, of course.
Best Bet: Steelers +3.5
Buffalo Bills (-8) at New York Jets
Betting on the Jets can be hazardous to the health of your bankroll, and this is only the second time this season I’m doing it (the first being in New York’s hideous 17-12 victory over the Browns in Week 5) and might regret it. There are some positives to the Jets, including rookie edge rusher David Bailey, the return of wideout Garrett Wilson and the running back tandem of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen.
The home dog should put up a fight in this division game, and part of that is because Buffalo is in a negative situational spot. Josh Allen took a physical beating while getting sacked four times Monday in a 23-6 win at Minnesota, and the Bills stay on the road on a short week. DraftKings has this lined at 8.5, BetMGM has 8 and Circa is at 7.5. I’ll take the points and hope for a miracle upset as I’m not using the Bills in the Circa Survivor contest.
Best Bet: Jets +8
Three more plays for Sunday:
Titans +10.5 vs Jaguars
Vikings-Packers Under 42.5
Cowboys +4.5 vs 49ers
Last week: 1-4 against the spread
Season: 29-25-1
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